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Rise and dip today with new month money (initially anyway!) | 7474 7515 resistance | 7410 7350 support

#1 · 1st March 2022, 10:56 am

Quote from Nick on 1st March 2022, 10:56 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Markets took a hit yesterday as Western leaders announced a range of new sanctions against Russia. The FTSE 100 shed 0.4pc to 7,458 at close.

With international investment cut off, Russia’s currency is collapsing and interest rates have more than doubled.

The S&P 500 resumed losses after briefly turning green, with more than 80pc of its companies moving lower.

It headed toward its second month of declines, which would be its longest losing streak since October 2020.

Meanwhile the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the market’s “fear gauge”, has surged back near the 30 level after hitting its lowest in almost a month just two weeks ago.

Stocks and oil made steady gains Tuesday amid a lull in the volatility sparked by the war in Ukraine and the sanctions placed on Russia.

An Asia-Pacific equity gauge rose for a third session, aided by Japan. Hong Kong lagged amid reports the city is planning a lockdown for Covid-19 testing. European equity futures fell and U.S. contracts wavered after the S&P 500 came off its lows to close with a modest decline Monday.

Treasuries slipped back after surging during the Wall Street session on risk aversion and month-end rebalancing. The dollar was little changed. Oil pushed higher as traders balanced the possible release of emergency stockpiles against fears of disruption to Russian energy exports.

Russia’s markets remain under pressure after the U.S. and its allies moved to block the Bank of Russia’s access to foreign reserves and cut some lenders off from the SWIFT messaging system for global banking.

President Vladimir Putin has announced counter-sanctions, while officials also introduced some capital controls to try and stem a ruble plunge. There’s a growing risk that Russia’s stocks and bonds could be kicked out of major investment benchmarks as they become increasingly hard to trade.

The ruble offshore was indicated about 1% higher but actually trading it remained challenging.

Markets have been whipsawed by the conflict and steps to isolate commodity-rich Russia. Disruptions to supplies of raw materials such as grain and energy threaten to stoke already-high inflation and hamper growth, just as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. Lenders worldwide are already making it harder to finance transactions involving Russian resources.

Hitting Back
Russia barred airlines from 36 countries from its airspace and banned its residents from transferring hard currency abroad, in an effort to hit back at the widening raft of sanctions from the West over its invasion of Ukraine. The drumbeat of penalties against Russia continued, as the EU approved sanctions on some of Russia’s wealthiest tycoons, and Britain told ports not to service Russian-flagged vessels. Meanwhile, fighting intensified across Ukraine with civilian casualties reported despite Russia saying it was only attacking military targets. Delegations from Russia and Ukraine agreed to continue negotiations after a meeting on the border with Belarus ended with few signs of progress.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st March 2022

The bulls fought back well yesterday to test that 7475 resistance level towards the end of the day and then we got a decent drop from there. That level still remains as resistance and we may well see a rise to here to start with as the new month money flows in, before another drop down. Tensions are still running high and volatility is still at the forefront. Bitcoin has rallied strongly during the tensions as well - mainly due to it being an altertnive currency less likely to be impacted by sanctions.

Initially today we do have resistance at 7445 which is the overnight high, then 7474 above that. 7515 is R1 and could be seen later if the bulls remain in the driving seat. The 2hour chart is bullish still and has really good support at 7350 at the moment with both the coral and Hull MA here. Should we drop that low today then a bounce here would fit well.

The bulls will be keen to break above the 7491 level though as we have the 25ema on the daily here, and a break above (and hold) will start to change the daily chart to a more bullish outlook. Seasonally we are coming out of the weaker period of January and February so will be interesting to see if we start to get more strength coming back into equity markets. The top of the 10 day Raff channel is at the 7625 level where we also have R2. I am not expecting us to get that high today but its looking like strong resistance if we were to do so.

Support wise, 7410 is first up where we have the 200ema on the 30m chart and also the 30m coral. That may well mark the low today though as mentioned a break of that will likely see 7350. Probably worth a long off that 7410 area as well but with a tight stop.

Should the bears break 7350 though then 7257 is S1 and 7284 is the key fib, so both of these levels will be targets for the bulls.

We have a battle between bear Tuesday and new month money today! Initially I am thinking that the new month money will give us a rise, so a rise, dip, rise day may well play out. Once again the West will be supporting markets to maintain strength (or the illusion of it!) in the face of Russia Ukraine.

So, could be another topsy turvy day today. Watching that 7474 level once again with 7515 above that. Support at 7410 and 7350.

Good luck today.

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Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.

Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits

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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Markets took a hit yesterday as Western leaders announced a range of new sanctions against Russia. The FTSE 100 shed 0.4pc to 7,458 at close.

With international investment cut off, Russia’s currency is collapsing and interest rates have more than doubled.

The S&P 500 resumed losses after briefly turning green, with more than 80pc of its companies moving lower.

It headed toward its second month of declines, which would be its longest losing streak since October 2020.

Meanwhile the Cboe Volatility Index, known as the market’s “fear gauge”, has surged back near the 30 level after hitting its lowest in almost a month just two weeks ago.

Stocks and oil made steady gains Tuesday amid a lull in the volatility sparked by the war in Ukraine and the sanctions placed on Russia.

An Asia-Pacific equity gauge rose for a third session, aided by Japan. Hong Kong lagged amid reports the city is planning a lockdown for Covid-19 testing. European equity futures fell and U.S. contracts wavered after the S&P 500 came off its lows to close with a modest decline Monday.

Treasuries slipped back after surging during the Wall Street session on risk aversion and month-end rebalancing. The dollar was little changed. Oil pushed higher as traders balanced the possible release of emergency stockpiles against fears of disruption to Russian energy exports.

Russia’s markets remain under pressure after the U.S. and its allies moved to block the Bank of Russia’s access to foreign reserves and cut some lenders off from the SWIFT messaging system for global banking.

President Vladimir Putin has announced counter-sanctions, while officials also introduced some capital controls to try and stem a ruble plunge. There’s a growing risk that Russia’s stocks and bonds could be kicked out of major investment benchmarks as they become increasingly hard to trade.

The ruble offshore was indicated about 1% higher but actually trading it remained challenging.

Markets have been whipsawed by the conflict and steps to isolate commodity-rich Russia. Disruptions to supplies of raw materials such as grain and energy threaten to stoke already-high inflation and hamper growth, just as the Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates. Lenders worldwide are already making it harder to finance transactions involving Russian resources.

Hitting Back
Russia barred airlines from 36 countries from its airspace and banned its residents from transferring hard currency abroad, in an effort to hit back at the widening raft of sanctions from the West over its invasion of Ukraine. The drumbeat of penalties against Russia continued, as the EU approved sanctions on some of Russia’s wealthiest tycoons, and Britain told ports not to service Russian-flagged vessels. Meanwhile, fighting intensified across Ukraine with civilian casualties reported despite Russia saying it was only attacking military targets. Delegations from Russia and Ukraine agreed to continue negotiations after a meeting on the border with Belarus ended with few signs of progress.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 1st March 2022

The bulls fought back well yesterday to test that 7475 resistance level towards the end of the day and then we got a decent drop from there. That level still remains as resistance and we may well see a rise to here to start with as the new month money flows in, before another drop down. Tensions are still running high and volatility is still at the forefront. Bitcoin has rallied strongly during the tensions as well - mainly due to it being an altertnive currency less likely to be impacted by sanctions.

Initially today we do have resistance at 7445 which is the overnight high, then 7474 above that. 7515 is R1 and could be seen later if the bulls remain in the driving seat. The 2hour chart is bullish still and has really good support at 7350 at the moment with both the coral and Hull MA here. Should we drop that low today then a bounce here would fit well.

The bulls will be keen to break above the 7491 level though as we have the 25ema on the daily here, and a break above (and hold) will start to change the daily chart to a more bullish outlook. Seasonally we are coming out of the weaker period of January and February so will be interesting to see if we start to get more strength coming back into equity markets. The top of the 10 day Raff channel is at the 7625 level where we also have R2. I am not expecting us to get that high today but its looking like strong resistance if we were to do so.

Support wise, 7410 is first up where we have the 200ema on the 30m chart and also the 30m coral. That may well mark the low today though as mentioned a break of that will likely see 7350. Probably worth a long off that 7410 area as well but with a tight stop.

Should the bears break 7350 though then 7257 is S1 and 7284 is the key fib, so both of these levels will be targets for the bulls.

We have a battle between bear Tuesday and new month money today! Initially I am thinking that the new month money will give us a rise, so a rise, dip, rise day may well play out. Once again the West will be supporting markets to maintain strength (or the illusion of it!) in the face of Russia Ukraine.

So, could be another topsy turvy day today. Watching that 7474 level once again with 7515 above that. Support at 7410 and 7350.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates