Quote from Nick on 4th March 2022, 10:15 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 erased gains as the Ukraine conflict keeps weighing on markets. London's leading index dropped 2.8pc to 7,238, while the FTSE 250 slid 3.3pc to 20,079.

Stocks fell Friday along with European and U.S. equity futures, while havens including sovereign bonds rose, as investors reacted to an attack on a major nuclear power plant in Ukraine by Russian troops.

European contracts fell about 2.5% and those for the U.S. shed less than 1%, off earlier nadirs after an initial spasm of worry eased. An Asian equity index declined to the lowest since 2020, weighed down by Japan and Hong Kong.

Ukraine told the International Atomic Energy Agency that a fire at the plant “has not affected ‘essential’ equipment” and that there had been no change reported in radiation levels.

Emergency services said the blaze was contained and that there was no immediate risk to nuclear power facilities. Russian troops began shelling the complex -- Europe’s largest nuclear plant -- on Friday, Ukrainian officials said.

Gains in gold and the dollar moderated, while the euro pared a decline. Oil was near $110 a barrel, trimming a jump of as much as 4.8%. A rally in Treasuries lowered the U.S. 10-year yield to less than 1.80%.

Russia’s invasion of its neighbor and transformation into a economic pariah had already shaken sentiment before the latest escalation. Energy, metal and grain costs have soared as traders shun Russia’s oil and other resources.

Week Two
Russian forces fired missiles at Kyiv and bombarded cities across Ukraine, as President Vladimir Putin pushed ahead with his invasion in disregard of a United Nations vote to immediately halt the fighting. As the war enters its second week, more than a million refugees have fled the country. In the U.S., the Biden administration’s reluctance to ban oil imports from Russia is causing a stir.

Lowering Expectations
China will likely announce its lowest economic growth target in more than three decades when top leaders gather Saturday for a key political meeting. Most economists in a Bloomberg survey see Beijing adopting a growth target of between 5% and 5.5%.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th March 2022

News overnight about the nuclear power plant being attacked sent the futures into a tailspin, however we are now seeing a bit of a recovery. As you can see from the various charts for each market I am actually thinking we may well see a bit of a bounce today, at least towards the daily pivots on the various instruments. We had a fake break north on the S&P yesterday as it tried to get above the 4400 level but it was short lived and sold off steadily after that. The bulls will however be keen to defend the bottom of the Raff channels, most of which got tested overnight!

For the FTSE100 initial resistance is at the 7255 level where we will back test the key fib support that broke overnight along with a test of the red 30m coral line. If the bulls were to break this then the next level of note is 7350 and that will shake off the pessimistic overtones with the price down at 7100 overnight! 7366 is also the red 2h coral while 7340 is the Hull MA on the 2h so we have a cluster of resistance levels here that may well get a reaction.

Support wise, then we are just moving back above S1 at 7170 as I write this, though below this then the overnight low at 7088 is next up. 7095 is daily support also, with 7072 as S2 and the bottom of the 10d Raff. The bulls will be keen to defend the 7000 level should it get that low as a break of that will see a slide down towards 6900. And then it really does start to look weak! Gets harder to impose sanctions when your economies on its knees and your population is being squeezed by the cost of living crisis!

Going to keep this brief today but do just keep an eye on the key levels in the table above and stay nimble!

Good luck today, watch 7250 and 7350 for resistance; 7100 and 7072 for support.

Have a great weekend.

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