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NFP today with 725k forecast | 7175 7200 7221 resistance | 7151 7128 7106 support

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Wall Street hit record highs yesterday on gains in tech and energy firms, and on hopes the Fed will maintain its current policies on signs a recovery is slowing. The energy sector has rose around 3pc while rises in the share prices of Netflix, Apple and Amazon drove gains on the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

The FTSE 100 traded flat most of the day while the FTSE 250 slipped, with markets awaiting todays NFP data.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 3rd September 2021

NFP Friday today so we may well see a buy the rumour sell the news type of day. As per usual keep your guard up as on such a day as it can sometimes be a bit odd. If we do get an initial dip down then I would like to see the pivot hold at the 7150 level and we also have the green 30m coral here, along with the 30m 200ema at 7146.

The bears will be trying to break below this as that would open up a test of the 7128 level where we have S1 and daily support. Ultimately though they will be looking to try and get the FTSE100 down to the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel which is at 7080 currently. I don't think they will manage that (news notwithstanding) and we will see the 7100 level or just above hold on any weakness today below 7150.

Assuming 7150 does hold, or we get buying from the off, then the bulls will be looking to take this up towards the 7200 level where we have the key fib for today and also the round number. Above this though and we have a retest of the recent high at 7225 with a possible push higher on the cards towards the top of the 10 day Raff channel this time, at 7243.

Should the bulls continue to take this higher early in September then we may well see a rise towards the 7300 level, before some mid-Septmebr seasonal weakness kicks in.

Non Farm Payrolls* is forecasted to come in at 750k, versus 943k previously, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 5.2% down from 5.4% previously.

The S&P500 looks to want to continue its move upwards with a potential rise towards the 4565 level on the cards, We may well have the news today to help with that to end the week. That said there is a public holiday in the US on Monday for Labor Day so we may see a bit of hesitancy for the usual late Friday pump.

Gold also looks like it has the potential to get towards the 1830 level and we may see a bit more volatility on that with the NFP news and the associated inflationary (or not) pressures along with tapering of stimulus and interest rate hikes,

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

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Asian Session

Most Asian stocks rose Friday and the dollar held a drop after cyclicals led Wall Street to a record high ahead of a U.S. jobs report that will shape views on the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.

MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific gauge climbed for a sixth day, the longest streak since January, aided by Japan, where equities jumped amid signs that Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga plans to resign after his approval ratings slid. U.S. futures advanced after energy shares helped the S&P 500 to a new peak.

Chinese technology stocks fell, with investors continuing to weigh Beijing’s regulatory crackdown. President Xi Jinping said the nation will set up a new stock exchange to provide financing for innovative smaller firms. Traders were also monitoring the twists at indebted developer China Evergrande Group.

The payrolls report will color expectations about when the Fed might taper pandemic-era stimulus and how long it can wait before hiking interest-rates. The U.S. probably added 725,000 jobs in August -- a more moderate pace versus the prior two months, but stronger than early 2021. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed and the dollar was at a four-week low.

The jobs figures are another potential test of the prevailing calm in financial markets, which so far have weathered risks to economic reopening from coronavirus variants and the prospect of less expansive monetary policy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists said concerns about economic expansion are overdone, pointing to possible gains in cyclical assets in the near future. [Bloomberg]

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