Quote from Nick on 4th February 2022, 10:26 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 erased early gains to end lower Thursday, shedding 0.7pc to 7,528, as markets digest the Bank of England's interest rate rise.

The Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.5pc and said it will start to wind down its pandemic bond buying programme as it warned inflation will peak at 7.25pc in April.

U.S. equity futures rose Friday as Amazon.com Inc. earnings soothed nerves about the technology sector, while a Hong Kong rally boosted Asian shares. A hawkish chorus from key central banks hurt bonds.

Contracts on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were up about 2% after e-commerce titan Amazon and Snap Inc. soared in late trading on strong earnings. An Asia-Pacific equity gauge pushed higher partly on a 3% jump in Hong Kong, which was catching up with global markets after reopening from a holiday.

Amazon could add nearly $200 billion in market value if the stock’s 14% gain in after-hours trading holds to Friday’s Wall Street close. That brightened the mood after a historic, $251 billion wipeout for Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc. on Thursday consigned the Nasdaq 100 to its worst drop since 2020.

Hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and a Bank of England interest-rate hike underlined risks from inflation. Investors dumped bonds: Japan’s five-year sovereign yield increased to zero for the first time since 2016, after an increase in European yields and selling in Treasuries.

The euro strengthened and the dollar retreated. West Texas Intermediate oil flirted with $91 a barrel in an ongoing rally.

Mega Loss

Meta’s one-day crash now ranks as the worst in stock-market history. Shares of the Facebook owner slumped as much as 27% after results on Wednesday showed user growth stalling. The collapse wiped out more than $230 billion of market value — the biggest in history for any U.S. company. It also dragged Snap down as much as 22% and Spotify 19%, though Snap came roaring back after it reported upbeat results. Mark Zuckerberg’s wealth dropped as much as $31 billion. Zuckerberg rallied his employees to focus on video products, after they watched the stock lose a quarter of its value.

Putin Courts Xi

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping will hold their first in-person meeting in more than two years on Friday, on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing. The Russian leader is using China to help offset the U.S.’s alliance network, telling Chinese state media that the two countries play an “important stabilizing role.” The foreign ministers also spoke on Thursday about issues including Ukraine, Afghanistan and the Korean peninsula.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 4th February 2022

After BoE yesterday, we have NFP today for some more market moving news. Amazon results saved the day yesterday as the US markets were selling off. Bit of the opposite action to Meta which killed the rise the day before! NFP is forecasted at 150k, versus 199k previously, with unemployment remaining at 3.9%.

For the FTSE100 today we have initial resistance at the 7591 level on the 2 hour chart with the Hull moving average here, and then the daily resistance level of 7600 above that. A retest of the recent high at 7635 still looks possible though, though we have got 7625 showing as fib level resistance for today as well. Basically there is a cluster of resistance around this area, and that may well coincide with the key level on the S&P500 that the bulls need to break, being 4545.

Above the 7630 area then 7655 is next up and then 7700 above that for round number and the R3 level. Will the bulls be able to push it that high today..... a lot will depend on NFP and if the USA bulls manage to push past that 4545 level. If they were to do so then we may well see a rise towards the 4589 level where we have 2h resistance. That would help pull the FTSE100 up with it.

It's worth noting that the FTSE100 is remaining pretty resilient still despite the volatility and bearishness on the US markets. That does bode well for continued FTSE100 upside this year and possibly even that 8500 year end!

For the support side of things, then 7550 level is key to start with as we have the 200ema here on the 30m, along with the 30m coral. That is still red at the moment (bearish trend) but looks like it may well change green quite quickly this morning, especially as the price is holding above that level. As such that should become decent support too.

However, below the 7550 then 7528 is the daily level of note, and then 7500 below that. Not sure we will get that low unless the US gets really bearish. I can see us having the Friday PM rise today though, as the S&P bulls will be keen for a close above the 4547 25ema on the daily.

So, keep an eye on those key levels today and dont forget NFP at 1330. Have a great weekend and good luck today.

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