Discussion Forum for trading analysis, help, signals and learning how to trade. Chat with other traders , post analysis, trades and ask questions. This is the public part of my website. For more in-depth discussions please consider joining to chat with other members

ForumTrading Forum with market discussion and live trades: Market DiscussionMore chop ahead of US CPI | 6920 …

Please or Register to create posts and topics.

More chop ahead of US CPI | 6920 6950 7026 resistance | 6843 6819 support

#1 · 12th October 2022, 10:50 am

Quote from Nick on 12th October 2022, 10:50 am
FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The dollar erased an advance and the pound swung to a gain after a report that raised the prospect of the Bank of England extending its emergency bond buying. US stock futures jumped and Asian equity markets pared losses amid a shift in risk sentiment.

The Financial Times report indicated the BOE had briefed bankers that its bond buying program to stave off a crisis in UK pensions could persist beyond its Oct. 14 deadline. This ran counter to comments on Tuesday from the central bank’s governor urging investors to prepare for the program to stop this week.

Asian stocks wallowed at two-year lows on Wednesday, after a strengthening dollar, instability in the U.K. bond market, and upcoming U.S. inflation data spelled a wild session on Wall Street and further volatility for investors.

Sterling languished at a two-week trough after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday reiterated that the central bank will end its emergency bond-buying program this week and told pension fund managers to finish rebalancing their positions in frame.

In Japan, the rampaging dollar breached 146 yen for the first time since 1998 prompting authorities in Tokyo to pledge necessary steps in the foreign exchange market if needed. The Nikkei share average (.N225) fell 0.18%.

The British financial turmoil combined with a burst of U.S. dollar strength that sent the sterling to a two-week low of 1.0949, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell to $0.6247, the lowest since April 2020.

There was little good news elsewhere, either.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2023 global growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.7%, warning that pressures from inflation, war-driven energy and food crises, and higher interest rates may tip the world into recession and financial market instability.

The BOE warned UK pensions funds and other investors to get their houses in order by Friday, when it would end a huge bond-buying programme aimed at calming roller-coaster moves seen by gilts and sterling in recent days.

The warnings, ahead of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday that is expected to keep the Fed on an aggressive rate hike path, tanked stocks on Wall Street.
Overnight, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65% and 1.10%, respectively, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close up 0.12%.

Three-Day Warning
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned fund managers they have until the end of this week to wind up positions that they can’t maintain before the central bank halts its market support, triggering a selloff in the pound and US stocks. The pound fell below 1.10 versus the dollar after his
comments at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Washington. Asian stocks looked poised for further declines. Elsewhere JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says don’t be surprised if the S&P 500 loses another one-fifth of its value.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th October 2022

For the second time this week that was a decent climb off the lower support this time at 6860 but then fizzled out again. Same as the bounce off 6920 earlier this week! Overnight we have held the retest of that 6860 (and just below for the overnight low at 6850) and futures looks a bit more optimistic to start with. A possible climb towards the 6920 level initial (again!) where we have the Hull MA on the 2h, but possibly as high as the 6940 area where we have a cluster of resistance levels.

Namely, the key fib, 200ema 30m and R1. Thats also just below the red 2h coral on the 2h that we haven't tested as yet since it changed to a bearish trend. That is currently at 6970 but steadily dropping.

I am thinking that both of these levels will get tested today as we see once again the buy the rumour, sell the news mentality kick in ahead of the US CPI tomorrow.

Above the 6970 level then the bulls would be looking to recapture the 7000 level and R2 is at 7026 for today - can they push that high? The S&P500 might go for the 3660 level for a test of that 2h coral resistance so that could help drag the FTSE up as well. If the pound continues to drop that will also help underpin the FTSE100.

For the support side of things, then 6843 key fib is the main one, and just below the overnight low, with S1 at 6819 below that. Should we start dropping off to these levels then the bottom of the 10d Raff comes into view as well, with support from that around the 6790 level.

Generally for today though it looks like we might get a push up. The price has moved above the 30m coral, and that should turn green this morning, and offers support at the 6870 level to start with.

Whilst writing this, ONS news has just been released that the UK economy contracted 0.3% in August.

S&P500
As with the FTSE100, this looks like it might have a more optimistic day today and a rise towards the 3650 level before a stutter there. That would tie in with a test of the 200ema 30m and also the red 2h coral, and as such should get a reaction. We are just pushing through the Hull MA resistance level on the 2h chart first thing, at the 3601 level. R1 is at 3633 so the initial target for the bulls on an early push up. Support wise, 3590 is the green 30m coral so initial support here, with 3570 key fib level below that. Not sure we will get that low though!

Good luck today!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.

Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits

Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The dollar erased an advance and the pound swung to a gain after a report that raised the prospect of the Bank of England extending its emergency bond buying. US stock futures jumped and Asian equity markets pared losses amid a shift in risk sentiment.

The Financial Times report indicated the BOE had briefed bankers that its bond buying program to stave off a crisis in UK pensions could persist beyond its Oct. 14 deadline. This ran counter to comments on Tuesday from the central bank’s governor urging investors to prepare for the program to stop this week.

Asian stocks wallowed at two-year lows on Wednesday, after a strengthening dollar, instability in the U.K. bond market, and upcoming U.S. inflation data spelled a wild session on Wall Street and further volatility for investors.

Sterling languished at a two-week trough after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday reiterated that the central bank will end its emergency bond-buying program this week and told pension fund managers to finish rebalancing their positions in frame.

In Japan, the rampaging dollar breached 146 yen for the first time since 1998 prompting authorities in Tokyo to pledge necessary steps in the foreign exchange market if needed. The Nikkei share average (.N225) fell 0.18%.

The British financial turmoil combined with a burst of U.S. dollar strength that sent the sterling to a two-week low of 1.0949, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell to $0.6247, the lowest since April 2020.

There was little good news elsewhere, either.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2023 global growth forecast from 2.9% to 2.7%, warning that pressures from inflation, war-driven energy and food crises, and higher interest rates may tip the world into recession and financial market instability.

The BOE warned UK pensions funds and other investors to get their houses in order by Friday, when it would end a huge bond-buying programme aimed at calming roller-coaster moves seen by gilts and sterling in recent days.

The warnings, ahead of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday that is expected to keep the Fed on an aggressive rate hike path, tanked stocks on Wall Street.
Overnight, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell 0.65% and 1.10%, respectively, though the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to close up 0.12%.

Three-Day Warning
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned fund managers they have until the end of this week to wind up positions that they can’t maintain before the central bank halts its market support, triggering a selloff in the pound and US stocks. The pound fell below 1.10 versus the dollar after his
comments at the Institute of International Finance annual meeting in Washington. Asian stocks looked poised for further declines. Elsewhere JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says don’t be surprised if the S&P 500 loses another one-fifth of its value.

FTSE100 live outlook prediction analysis for 12th October 2022

For the second time this week that was a decent climb off the lower support this time at 6860 but then fizzled out again. Same as the bounce off 6920 earlier this week! Overnight we have held the retest of that 6860 (and just below for the overnight low at 6850) and futures looks a bit more optimistic to start with. A possible climb towards the 6920 level initial (again!) where we have the Hull MA on the 2h, but possibly as high as the 6940 area where we have a cluster of resistance levels.

Namely, the key fib, 200ema 30m and R1. Thats also just below the red 2h coral on the 2h that we haven't tested as yet since it changed to a bearish trend. That is currently at 6970 but steadily dropping.

I am thinking that both of these levels will get tested today as we see once again the buy the rumour, sell the news mentality kick in ahead of the US CPI tomorrow.

Above the 6970 level then the bulls would be looking to recapture the 7000 level and R2 is at 7026 for today - can they push that high? The S&P500 might go for the 3660 level for a test of that 2h coral resistance so that could help drag the FTSE up as well. If the pound continues to drop that will also help underpin the FTSE100.

For the support side of things, then 6843 key fib is the main one, and just below the overnight low, with S1 at 6819 below that. Should we start dropping off to these levels then the bottom of the 10d Raff comes into view as well, with support from that around the 6790 level.

Generally for today though it looks like we might get a push up. The price has moved above the 30m coral, and that should turn green this morning, and offers support at the 6870 level to start with.

Whilst writing this, ONS news has just been released that the UK economy contracted 0.3% in August.

S&P500
As with the FTSE100, this looks like it might have a more optimistic day today and a rise towards the 3650 level before a stutter there. That would tie in with a test of the 200ema 30m and also the red 2h coral, and as such should get a reaction. We are just pushing through the Hull MA resistance level on the 2h chart first thing, at the 3601 level. R1 is at 3633 so the initial target for the bulls on an early push up. Support wise, 3590 is the green 30m coral so initial support here, with 3570 key fib level below that. Not sure we will get that low though!

Good luck today!

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE100, DAX40, Gold and S&P500.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates