Quote from Nick on 29th March 2021, 9:13 am

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 29th March 2021

London’s markets rallied on Friday, erasing losses from the previous session to join a rise in equities worldwide after data in the UK and US gave traders a positive outlook for the global economic recovery. Figures showed UK retail sales rose 2.1pc in February, helped by consumers stocking up on goods including DIY products and garden furniture ahead of the easing of lockdown in England.

The blue-chip FTSE 100 gained 65.7 points to 6,740.5 for its best session in more than a fortnight, helped by mining and oil stocks.  Trailing Smiths were mining giants Glencore, which rose 17.5p to 286.4p, Antofagasta which added 71p to £16.92; and Anglo American, up 117.5p to £28.43. Also among the top ten risers were miners Rio Tinto and BHP Group. Meanwhile BP added 8.9p to 283.6p, and Royal Dutch Shell added 29.6p to £14.50. The failure to refloat the container ship stuck in the Suez Canal boosted oil, with Brent crude gaining 4.1pc to $64.50 a barrel.

Traders Brace

Global traders are bracing for what’s shaping up to be one of the most anticipated opens for U.S. equities in months following an extraordinary $20 billion wave of block trades Friday that rattled investors worldwide and overshadowed a record close on Wall Street. Asian markets will provide a gauge of the mood: Equity futures pointed higher in Japan and Australia, but questions remain about whether more block trades may be coming.  The family office of former Tiger Management trader Bill Hwang, Archegos Capital Management, was behind the sales, according to two people directly familiar with the trades. Shares of Chinese tech giants and U.S. media conglomerates got dumped. While some of the stocks rebounded at the end of Friday’s session, Viacom and Discovery didn’t, posting their biggest daily losses ever. Elsewhere in markets, Traders will continue to watch efforts to dislodge a gigantic ship stuck in the Suez Canal, which has driven swings in the price of oil. Bitcoin was trading around $55,000.  Treasuries will be in focus mid-week with the expiry of a regulatory exemption for banks that’s helped prop up the Treasury market since last year’s pandemic panic.

Suez Update

Salvage teams fighting to free the Ever Given ship are removing part of the Suez Canal’s bank, as the rescue mission enters a critical phase. High tides over the next few days offer perhaps the best chance yet to float the enormous vessel. Dredging and digging continues — with 27,000 cubic meters of sand already removed — and another tug on its way. For the global economy, hanging in the balance daily is about $10 billion in commodities, industrial inputs and consumer products. More than 450 ships are waiting for the canal to reopen, another headache for global supply chains already stretched by the pandemic. Some ships have opted for the long, expensive trip around the southern tip of Africa, and companies are starting to flag the risk of delays.[Bloomberg]

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US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Most Asian stocks rose Monday after a record Wall Street close, while U.S. equity futures dipped as traders assessed a $20 billion wave of block trades. Oil fell after salvage teams freed a ship in the Suez Canal.

Shares were modestly higher in Japan even as Nomura Holdings Inc. slumped after warning of a possible “significant” loss arising from transactions with a U.S. client. U.S. equity futures were lower following revelations that Archegos Capital Management LLC -- the family office of Bill Hwang -- was behind the block trades, selling Chinese tech giants and U.S. media conglomerates amid margin calls. Chinese and Hong Kong shares shrugged off the news.

Morgan Stanley was offering a large amount of ViacomCBS Inc. shares on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the matter, the latest in a surge of block trades that began before the weekend.

West Texas Intermediate crude was more than 1% lower after the Ever Given was refloated. It wasn’t clear how soon the Suez Canal would be open to traffic. A dollar gauge ticked higher and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Certainly a strong close to the week on Friday and the 6785 daily resistance level was tested just before the weekend shut down but the bears appeared here for a drop on the futures to start the week off. That remains the level for the bulls to break this week and if we see that in hours today then we may well see the bears appear here again for a double top drop.

Initially the shorter time frame charts are bearish, with the 30m having resistance at the 6740 level so we may well see a drop from here first down towards the main support at 6680. With the key fib, and the 2 hour supports here with a green coral line, we will want to see the bulls defend this level. That may also tie in with the US bulls defending the 3930 level on the S&P as we have S1 and the 30m coral there. That said, there is closer support at the 6715 level so worth keeping an eye on that too.

If those supports hold then we may well see a rise this week towards the 6800 level. However the 10d Raff channel top is currently at 6785 so the bulls will have their work cut out here. Will we get a bull Monday today? Does feel like a dip and rise may well play out, especially with that reaction at 6785 on Friday. Bloomberg were taking about a volatile open on the US markets today as well (see above) so we may well have some chop then.

If the bears break below the initial support at 6720 where we have the 200ema and S1, then 6680 and below that, 6665 for S2. If it does weaken then we start to move below the 25ema on the daily as well, which will not be ideal for the bulls.

If the bulls were able too break above the 6785 level then 6803 is R1 and 6836 above that for R2.

Ideally looking for the support at 6680 to hold today and maybe the US bulls aren't quite beaten yet and we will get 4000 on the S&P after all. They are certainly making hard work of it though! Good luck today.

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