Quote from Nick on 11th March 2022, 10:03 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

European and US stocks sunk yesterday as key peace talks between Russia and Ukraine stalled, compounded by a rapidly worsening inflation and growth outlook.

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov met in Turkey in the first top-level talks since Moscow's invasion two weeks ago, but failed to make any progress to end a conflict that has sent more than 2.3m people fleeing the country.

Oil has shed most of its gains for the week as the fallout from the Ukraine war continues to rattle markets. Benchmark Brent crude was trading at around $113 a barrel, having surged as high as $139 earlier in the week. West Texas Intermediate fell back to $110. Both were trading briefly in the red before recovering yesterday.

Volatility has gripped energy markets as traders weigh up the impact of the conflict and ensuing sanctions. The US and Britain have both said they'll ban imports of oil from Russia.

Markets also have a close eye on possible changes to output plans by producer cartel Opec, which has so far resisted calls to increase production, arguing the surge in prices was driven by geopolitical tensions rather than a supply shortage.

Wall Street Retreat
As war in Ukraine enters its third week, JPMorgan joined Goldman Sachs in pulling back from Russia. The New York-based giant is currently engaging in limited activities in the country, the company said in a statement, while Goldman said it plans to close its Russia operations. Gaming giants Sony and Nintendo announced they were joining the multinational exodus from the country too, as high-level talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers failed to make progress in halting the war. Russia indicated it will continue attacks until its goals are met. Elsewhere, the U.K. froze the assets of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich, U.S. President Joe Biden is considering curbs on Russian uranium, and the Philippines plans to go ahead with the purchase of 17 Russian helicopters.

Missile Penalties
The U.S. is preparing new penalties against North Korea after determining that Kim Jong Un’s regime used a pair of recent missile launches to test systems for a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) project under development. The restrictions would aim to further block North Korea’s purchase of foreign technologies, a senior Biden administration official said. A functioning ICBM platform could allow North Korea to strike the U.S. mainland with a nuclear warhead

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 11th March 2022

A decent test of the 2h support overnight at 7055 has helped the bulls so far this morning with a rise back above 7100 and nearing the key fib resistance at the 7167 level. Above this we have R1 at 7182 and a possible test of the 7215 200ema on the daily again. We saw that moving average tested on Wednesday and trigger a decline and may well do the same today. Will bulls want to hold over the weekend pending any further Russia news?

The S&P has certainly been banging on the 4300 resistance this week and probably coiling for a breakout in due course and should it do so then a rise towards the top of the 10 day Raff channel at 4360 looks viable. 4296 is R1 for today though so the first hurdle that the bulls will need to overcome.

For the FTSE100 today I'm looking at an initial rise to the 7167 level and then a drop back down from here to retest the Hull MA support on the 2h chart and possibly as low as the green coral on the 2h at 7005. I would like to see this hold should it get seen anytime soon though as it coincides nicely with the round number and should provide decent support.

We are also probably going to be testing the top of the Raff channels again soon, with the 10 day slowly coming into view at 7300. The FTSE is certainly holding on to its recent gains and the bulls will be keen to maintain this. Should the S&P break out upwards then more upside across the board should play out.

Once again as its Friday be a bit more cautious today. Gold still contines to lead the way and that has stayed bearish for the moment below the 2000 level, suggesting that we may well see further equity upside. That said, one news event from the Russia/Ukraine war and that could flip things.

Initial support is at the 7055 level with S1 here and the overnight low, then 7005 as mentioned. Should the bears break below 7000 then things will get more bearish again with a probable drop down to the 6945 S3, and probably back on a path to 6750.

Good luck today and have a great weekend.

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