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Bulls pushing on with a hold above 7200 needed 7300 7380 resistance | 7216 7160 support

#1 · 16th March 2022, 11:31 am

Quote from Nick on 16th March 2022, 11:31 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed lower Tuesday, dragged down by banking and mining stocks, while strong jobs data supported the case for a Bank of England interest rate hike later this week. The blue-chip index fell 0.3pc to 7,175.

Industrial miners dropped as metal prices fell on concerns about the impact of surging Covid cases in top metals' consumer China.

Meanwhile, official figures showed Britain's unemployment rate dropped below its pre-pandemic rate in the three months to January, while pay rose faster than expected.

Stocks in Asia jumped Wednesday amid a rally in technology shares and a pledge from China to keep capital markets stable, while Treasuries held steady as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge added some 3% and a Chinese tech index rebounded from brutal selloff, soaring as much as 18%. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures climbed after a Wall Street advance Tuesday.

Oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday amid hopes of an Iran nuclear deal that would remove oil sanctions on Tehran combined with fears that widening lockdowns in China will knock demand. Crude prices have fallen 12pc in just two days and are almost 30pc down on last week’s 14-year peak of nearly $140 per barrel.

Pain Threshold
China’s support for Russia in the war in Ukraine is showing its limits as the domestic costs for President Xi Jinping start to outweigh the benefits of confronting the U.S. The war has multiplied Xi’s challenges in a year in which Chinese policy makers have pledged to put political stability first.

Default Looms
Russia is spiraling toward a $150 billion default nightmare. Its economy is fraying, its currency has collapsed, and its debt is junk. What happens with bond payments due Wednesday could kickstart Russia's first foreign-currency default since the 1917 revolution. That could cost investors billions and shut the country out of most funding markets.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th March 2022

A good save by the bulls yesterday as the drop to 7085 was defended well and we got a dip and rise play out. Oil has continued to fall for the moment (brief pause in the climb or getting back to a more "normal" price around $80?) and we are on a path to test the 7296 R2 level to start with today. We may well see a slight pause here as we also have daily resistance at the 7285 level.

Todays big event is the FOMC later at 18:00 with their interest rates, and then the BoE tomorrow with a forecasted rise to 0.75% in an attempt to cool inflation. Good luck with that, its been 10% for years and now its hitting 20/30% they are tinkering! The Fed are expected to put the interest rates up to 0.5%.

Above the 7300 level then we may well get a rise towards the 7379 R3 level, and above that we are coming into view of the top of the Raff channels, with the 20d first up at 7445 and then the 10 day at 7480. Seems a big ask to get to that area today though so a more gradual rise may well pan out.

Seasonally we are out of the bearish Jan/Feb window now and March is statistically when we start swinging back to a bit more or a bullish phase. The slight hurdles are the war, inflation, possible recession later this year and probably a few other things from nowhere (Covid still around too) but markets are usually pretty good at shaking off wobbles!

Support wise then the 7200 area is looking good initially and we have 2 hour support here from the Hull MA, and it's also the 30m 25ema that we bounced off yesterday afternoon at 7145. Just above 7200 we have a backtest of the key fib at 7216 as well.

Below this though and then the 7160 area has a cluster of supports, with the daily pivot, 200ema and 30m coral all here. Should it get down to this area then a long here is worth a go.

With FOMC today and BoE tomorrow then we may well see buy the rumours, sell the news playing out.

The dividend for the FTSE100 is 10.23 today so bear that in mind for the close later.

Good luck today.

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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed lower Tuesday, dragged down by banking and mining stocks, while strong jobs data supported the case for a Bank of England interest rate hike later this week. The blue-chip index fell 0.3pc to 7,175.

Industrial miners dropped as metal prices fell on concerns about the impact of surging Covid cases in top metals' consumer China.

Meanwhile, official figures showed Britain's unemployment rate dropped below its pre-pandemic rate in the three months to January, while pay rose faster than expected.

Stocks in Asia jumped Wednesday amid a rally in technology shares and a pledge from China to keep capital markets stable, while Treasuries held steady as investors awaited the Federal Reserve decision.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge added some 3% and a Chinese tech index rebounded from brutal selloff, soaring as much as 18%. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures climbed after a Wall Street advance Tuesday.

Oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday amid hopes of an Iran nuclear deal that would remove oil sanctions on Tehran combined with fears that widening lockdowns in China will knock demand. Crude prices have fallen 12pc in just two days and are almost 30pc down on last week’s 14-year peak of nearly $140 per barrel.

Pain Threshold
China’s support for Russia in the war in Ukraine is showing its limits as the domestic costs for President Xi Jinping start to outweigh the benefits of confronting the U.S. The war has multiplied Xi’s challenges in a year in which Chinese policy makers have pledged to put political stability first.

Default Looms
Russia is spiraling toward a $150 billion default nightmare. Its economy is fraying, its currency has collapsed, and its debt is junk. What happens with bond payments due Wednesday could kickstart Russia's first foreign-currency default since the 1917 revolution. That could cost investors billions and shut the country out of most funding markets.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 16th March 2022

A good save by the bulls yesterday as the drop to 7085 was defended well and we got a dip and rise play out. Oil has continued to fall for the moment (brief pause in the climb or getting back to a more "normal" price around $80?) and we are on a path to test the 7296 R2 level to start with today. We may well see a slight pause here as we also have daily resistance at the 7285 level.

Todays big event is the FOMC later at 18:00 with their interest rates, and then the BoE tomorrow with a forecasted rise to 0.75% in an attempt to cool inflation. Good luck with that, its been 10% for years and now its hitting 20/30% they are tinkering! The Fed are expected to put the interest rates up to 0.5%.

Above the 7300 level then we may well get a rise towards the 7379 R3 level, and above that we are coming into view of the top of the Raff channels, with the 20d first up at 7445 and then the 10 day at 7480. Seems a big ask to get to that area today though so a more gradual rise may well pan out.

Seasonally we are out of the bearish Jan/Feb window now and March is statistically when we start swinging back to a bit more or a bullish phase. The slight hurdles are the war, inflation, possible recession later this year and probably a few other things from nowhere (Covid still around too) but markets are usually pretty good at shaking off wobbles!

Support wise then the 7200 area is looking good initially and we have 2 hour support here from the Hull MA, and it's also the 30m 25ema that we bounced off yesterday afternoon at 7145. Just above 7200 we have a backtest of the key fib at 7216 as well.

Below this though and then the 7160 area has a cluster of supports, with the daily pivot, 200ema and 30m coral all here. Should it get down to this area then a long here is worth a go.

With FOMC today and BoE tomorrow then we may well see buy the rumours, sell the news playing out.

The dividend for the FTSE100 is 10.23 today so bear that in mind for the close later.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates