Quote from Nick on 8th March 2022, 10:31 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 had all but wiped out losses in volatile trading as investors remain on edge over the latest developments in the Ukraine war. After slumping as much as 2.6pc earlier Monday, the blue-chip index swung back into the green before edging down 0.4pc.

Oil and commodity-linked stocks led the rally, with Shell and BP jumping 7.7pc and 1.4pc respectively, while Glencore and Antofagasta also gained ground.

Markets across Europe were plunged into turmoil after the US said it was considering a ban on Russian oil imports, sending Brent crude surging as high as $139 a barrel. But sentiment improved after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he opposed an embargo, while Russia and Ukraine met for a third round of negotiations.

The price of gold broke through $2,000 an ounce on Monday as London’s market suspended the sale of Russian bars. Gold crossed the threshold on Monday morning, with some analysts predicting it will surpass a record high struck during the early months of the pandemic.

‘Not Comparable’
China warned the U.S. against trying to build what it called a Pacific version of NATO, while declaring that security disputes over Taiwan and Ukraine were “not comparable at all.” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his annual news briefing that the “real goal” of the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy was to form Asia’s answer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. During his two-hour speech Wang said ties between China and Russia remained “rock solid.” Get the full story here. Meanwhile, 2,778 new sanctions mean Russia is now the world’s most-sanctioned nation; Moscow’s top energy official threatened to cut off gas flows to Europe; and Uniqlo pledged to stay in Russia even as a wave of international companies leave.

Markets in Turmoil
The turmoil on global financial markets intensified Monday, with U.S. stocks plunging the most in 17 months and commodity prices relentlessly powering higher. The S&P 500 sank almost 3% for its worst day since October 2020. Futures for Japan fell while those for Australia and Hong Kong were steady. Russia’s war on Ukraine and subsequent sanctions imposed have sent a jolt through financial markets that were already unsteady after two years of the pandemic and the threat of central banks pulling back on stimulus.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 8th March 2022

Yesterday played out as expected but bit unlucky with the FTSE orders. The bulls tried to break above 7000 but failed and we have dropped back again below 6900. The S&P has also broken below the key support thats held for a while at 4280 and continues to slide, with S1 at 4138 the first line in the sand for today.

Initially we have resistance at the 6900 level this morning with the daily pivot and the 25ema on the 30m here, so we could see any early rise to here falter, with a drop down towards the key fib at 6820. Below this then S1 is at the 6762 level and the next area of support.

If the bears were to break S1, and we get a bear Tuesday then we start getting the bottom of the Raff channels into play, and the 20d is first up at 6736. This is also just above S2 at 6628 so should we slide this low then I would like to see this level hold. The 10d is lower at 6698 and with the round number here it should get a reaction if it were to be seen. I don't think we will get that low today though.

Gold continues to lead the way and is back above 2000 and continues to push higher as it keeps its status as a safe haven.

It looks like we will see the 4107 level on the S&P where we spiked down to on 24th February. With the double bottom potential here, along with the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel we may well see a bounce here should it get that low. Initially I am expecting S1 at 4138 to hold though.

Back to the FTSE and the bulls will be keen to break above 6900 first thing but we then have the key fib at 6940 and the overnight high at 6962 above that. If the bears do seize their chance at the fib level then a leg down to the 6850 level looks like it will play out, with a chance that it may get as low as S1 at 6762.

Some hope for the bulls is that the 30m coral has gone green and has 6880 as support. We have bounced around this line overnight as you can see on the chart and they will be keen to defend this to start with.

As is the nature of trading at the moment the headlines will drive the moves and with Putin's "demands" yesterday it looks like he may be looking for a way out without losing too much face. Interestingly he dropped the "de-nazification" element that had been part of the rhetoric. Certainly not going as they planned with a David v Goliath situation playing out on the ground, with the added kick in the teeth of the sanctions.

Once again trade carefully today, and with gold continuing to rise it suggests continued weakness for equities. I don't take much notice of news to trade generally but at the moment its worth watching the developments for anything positive.

Good luck today.

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