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Bulls need to break 7200 while bears need to break 7120 | 7280 resistance | 7078 support

#1 · 14th March 2022, 10:57 am

Quote from Nick on 14th March 2022, 10:57 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed 0.8pc higher at 7,155 on the back of positive economic data on Friday and has crept a bit higher on the futures this morning.

Stocks face more volatility as the war in Ukraine rages and markets brace for the Fed hike. Equity futures for Japan and Hong Kong fell, while Australia’s signaled a muted start. The dollar was mixed against major peers in early trading in Asia. The Russian ruble was indicated slightly stronger versus the greenback.

European equities are set to rise at the open despite most markets in Asia taking a beating. It’s a quiet day for scheduled events with all eyes on the Federal Reserve decision later this week. The U.K. announces its review of the “shopping basket” used to measure consumer price inflation, at a time when prices are surging. Meanwhile, BP launches its annual energy outlook at a fretful time for the industry.

The US warned Russia that it would face Nato's "full force" if attacks on Ukraine strayed beyond the border after Vladimir Putin brought his war to within 15 miles of Poland with a missile strike on foreign fighters. Russia boasted that it had killed "up to 180" foreign fighters and destroyed a cache of weapons donated by the West after using long-range missiles to target a military training centre near the city of Lviv hosting volunteer fighters from abroad.

Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, suggested that Nato would engage in direct conflict with Russia if Moscow accidentally hit Nato territory in Poland.

Military Aid

Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, a U.S. official said, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country. It’s unclear if China would respond positively to any such request. Beijing has stopped short of condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine but also called repeatedly for negotiations toward a resolution of the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian missiles hit a military training facility in western Ukraine close to the Polish border that had been used regularly by NATO before the invasion; a U.S. journalist was shot dead in Kyiv; and Russia says it’s lost access to half its financial reserves.

The Hike Begins

The Federal Reserve will this week begin a multi-month campaign to conquer inflation that could see Chair Jerome Powell moving even more aggressively after Russia’s war on Ukraine fanned prices further. With a 25 basis-point hike near-certain on Wednesday, futures markets show around 165 basis points of tightening this year, or the equivalent of at least six quarter-point increases. After U.S. consumer prices rose at a 7.9% annual rate in February, Allianz SE’s Mohamed El-Erian said the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could push U.S. inflation “very close or above 10%.”

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th March 2022

Volatility will continue to be the name of the game for the time being but the bulls may well have a bit of a go today. The S&P will need to defend the 4200 level which was Friday's low, likewise the FTSE100 will be looking to defend any drops. I am thinking that we will get an initial dip down to the 7120 area where we have the 200ema on the 30m, and just below the 7145 daily pivot. As such if we see a hold of this area then a climb back to challenge the 7200 level again, and possibly even push towards the 7285 level for a bit of bull Monday.

A dip and rise would fit pretty well, and mimic what the ASX200 did, with the US doing the same. Of course the big news this week economically speaking will be the Fed decision later this week (Wednesday) with a possible rate rise to 0.5%. BoE then follows on Thursday with a forecasted rate rise to be confirmed (possibly!) of 0.75%. Of course, in light of recent events and with a possible recession locking in later this year they may well hold steady instead!

So, we have initial resistance at the 7200 level with the key fib here, and then R1 just above this at the 7237 level. The daily chart has 7284 above this and its this level that could see an early stutter this morning, especially as its just above the level 7264 that we spiked to on Friday. The 2h chart is weakly bullish to start with today and has lower support at 7070 with the green (untested) coral there.

In terms of support we have 7120 to start with, and then 7078 key fib below that. S1 is down at 7025 though I don't think we will get that low today. Buy the dip though feels like the best play for today, to target the 7280 or higher level. 7125 being the first one, 7080 below that.

The bulls will be keen to break and hold above the 7300 level as we have the 25ema on the daily here, and we are also starting to get near the top of the Raff channels. 7360 for the 10 day and 7410 for the 20 day. Likewise, defence of the 7000 level has panned out so they will be keen to make sure it doesn't dip down towards that again soon. Of course a lot of the action is news driven as well at the moment though anything promising on the peace talk front will likely see a decent rise.

So, stay nimble once again today, watch the 7280ish area for resistance with 7356 above this. 7145, 7120 and 7080 as support.

Good luck today.

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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.

Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits

Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed 0.8pc higher at 7,155 on the back of positive economic data on Friday and has crept a bit higher on the futures this morning.

Stocks face more volatility as the war in Ukraine rages and markets brace for the Fed hike. Equity futures for Japan and Hong Kong fell, while Australia’s signaled a muted start. The dollar was mixed against major peers in early trading in Asia. The Russian ruble was indicated slightly stronger versus the greenback.

European equities are set to rise at the open despite most markets in Asia taking a beating. It’s a quiet day for scheduled events with all eyes on the Federal Reserve decision later this week. The U.K. announces its review of the “shopping basket” used to measure consumer price inflation, at a time when prices are surging. Meanwhile, BP launches its annual energy outlook at a fretful time for the industry.

The US warned Russia that it would face Nato's "full force" if attacks on Ukraine strayed beyond the border after Vladimir Putin brought his war to within 15 miles of Poland with a missile strike on foreign fighters. Russia boasted that it had killed "up to 180" foreign fighters and destroyed a cache of weapons donated by the West after using long-range missiles to target a military training centre near the city of Lviv hosting volunteer fighters from abroad.

Jake Sullivan, the White House national security adviser, suggested that Nato would engage in direct conflict with Russia if Moscow accidentally hit Nato territory in Poland.

Military Aid

Russia has asked China for military equipment to support its invasion of Ukraine, a U.S. official said, sparking concern in the White House that Beijing may undermine efforts to help Ukrainian forces defend their country. It’s unclear if China would respond positively to any such request. Beijing has stopped short of condemning Russia for its actions in Ukraine but also called repeatedly for negotiations toward a resolution of the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian missiles hit a military training facility in western Ukraine close to the Polish border that had been used regularly by NATO before the invasion; a U.S. journalist was shot dead in Kyiv; and Russia says it’s lost access to half its financial reserves.

The Hike Begins

The Federal Reserve will this week begin a multi-month campaign to conquer inflation that could see Chair Jerome Powell moving even more aggressively after Russia’s war on Ukraine fanned prices further. With a 25 basis-point hike near-certain on Wednesday, futures markets show around 165 basis points of tightening this year, or the equivalent of at least six quarter-point increases. After U.S. consumer prices rose at a 7.9% annual rate in February, Allianz SE’s Mohamed El-Erian said the economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could push U.S. inflation “very close or above 10%.”

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 14th March 2022

Volatility will continue to be the name of the game for the time being but the bulls may well have a bit of a go today. The S&P will need to defend the 4200 level which was Friday's low, likewise the FTSE100 will be looking to defend any drops. I am thinking that we will get an initial dip down to the 7120 area where we have the 200ema on the 30m, and just below the 7145 daily pivot. As such if we see a hold of this area then a climb back to challenge the 7200 level again, and possibly even push towards the 7285 level for a bit of bull Monday.

A dip and rise would fit pretty well, and mimic what the ASX200 did, with the US doing the same. Of course the big news this week economically speaking will be the Fed decision later this week (Wednesday) with a possible rate rise to 0.5%. BoE then follows on Thursday with a forecasted rate rise to be confirmed (possibly!) of 0.75%. Of course, in light of recent events and with a possible recession locking in later this year they may well hold steady instead!

So, we have initial resistance at the 7200 level with the key fib here, and then R1 just above this at the 7237 level. The daily chart has 7284 above this and its this level that could see an early stutter this morning, especially as its just above the level 7264 that we spiked to on Friday. The 2h chart is weakly bullish to start with today and has lower support at 7070 with the green (untested) coral there.

In terms of support we have 7120 to start with, and then 7078 key fib below that. S1 is down at 7025 though I don't think we will get that low today. Buy the dip though feels like the best play for today, to target the 7280 or higher level. 7125 being the first one, 7080 below that.

The bulls will be keen to break and hold above the 7300 level as we have the 25ema on the daily here, and we are also starting to get near the top of the Raff channels. 7360 for the 10 day and 7410 for the 20 day. Likewise, defence of the 7000 level has panned out so they will be keen to make sure it doesn't dip down towards that again soon. Of course a lot of the action is news driven as well at the moment though anything promising on the peace talk front will likely see a decent rise.

So, stay nimble once again today, watch the 7280ish area for resistance with 7356 above this. 7145, 7120 and 7080 as support.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates