Quote from Nick on 15th March 2022, 10:09 am

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Falling prices of natural resources ate into the performance of the FTSE 100, dampening in London what was a better day on other European markets. Iron ore prices fell 3pc and US oil dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 1, with miners the worst performers on London’s FTSE 100.

The index closed up by 0.5pc to 7,193 driven by, among others, housebuilders - helped by new lower estimates of how much the post-Grenfell cladding scandal could cost. But the index was weak compared to its European counterparts. Germany's Dax closed up 2.2pc, while the Cac 40 in Paris rose 1.8pc.

Grant Shapps, Secretary of State for Transport, has tweeted – because Twitter is how you share Government policy in 2022 – that:
“All remaining Covid travel measures, including the Passenger Locator Form and tests for all arrivals, will be stood down for travel to the UK from 4am on 18 March. These changes are possible due to our vaccine rollout and mean greater freedom in time for Easter.” The key winners here are unvaccinated travellers, who will no longer need to take any tests on returning to the UK. This was an inevitable consequence of removing the Passenger Locator Form.

A Russian fertiliser tycoon has warned that soaring costs for farmers risks triggering a global food crisis as British suppliers predicted that potato prices will jump by more than 20pc.

Rome Meeting
U.S. and Chinese officials conducted a “substantial discussion” of the Russian war against Ukraine in their first high-level, in-person talks since the invasion. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and China’s top diplomat, Communist Party Politburo member Yang Jiechi, met for about six hours in Rome, although the White House announced no specific outcomes or agreements. Meanwhile, the EU said it was preparing fresh sanctions on Russia; this was the moment an anti-war gatecrasher interrupted a live Russian state media news broadcast; and Elon Musk challenged Vladimir Putin to “single combat” for Ukraine.

Staying Away
The outlook for China stocks is so bleak that fund managers are steering clear of the dip-buying opportunity presented by a 75% plunge from their peak. The country’s close ties to Russia, strict Covid-19 curbs and a lack of clarity on the end of regulatory crackdowns have spooked buyers, and panic selling of Chinese stocks has taken hold. Even one of China’s biggest quant shops has advised some clients to take their money back, suggesting the market is likely to fall further. Asian stocks  face another challenging session Tuesday, with futures pointing to choppy opens for Japan and Australia.

Sewer Data
A U.S. wastewater network that monitors for Covid-19 trends is warning that cases are once again rising in many parts of the country, according to an analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data by Bloomberg. Get the full story here. Elsewhere, China locked down the world’s second-tallest building as part of its dramatic Covid response; Germany warned “many deaths” could be coming as cases surged to a record high.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th March 2022

The bears are gaining the upper hand with the bulls failure to hold above the 7200 level yesterday despite the charts having some bullish momentum. As such we may well be on for a bear Tuesday today, if the bears were to break below the 7100 S2 level. The 2h chart has gone bearish now, and has 7197 locked in as resistance, though it does have support from the coral at 7123 to start with this morning.

The 2h charts for the FTSE, Dax and S&P are all bearish now so as we head towards the FOMC on Wednesday (and BoE to a certain extent on Thursday) there is definitely some risk off coming into play. Gold has continued to slide and is now back below 1950 which is now resistance, while oil is back below $100 (just!).

For today I am thinking that we will get an initial dip down to test the S2 level at 7100 and then a small climb towards the 7180 daily pivot level. The bears may well charge again there and try and take it back down to 7100. A break of that and things will get a lot more bearish with a retest of the 7000 level back in play, and a possible break of that potentially taking the index down towards 6800.

I have plotted a pink arrow on the prediction chart and if the bulls were to break above the 7180 level then this may well play out with a move to the 7236 level. There is decent resistance here so a short there is worth a go, again for a potential drop down to the 7100 area.

The S&P needs to defend the 4150 level to start with as it has daily support there, and the bulls will need to break above 4180 to target the 4225 2h resistance level. It looks weak to start with so the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks (across the board really!).

Above the 7236 level then the 7262 and 7284 levels are back in play though they both feel a bit optimistic for today. Short the rallies today by the look of it!

Not much more to say really, let's see if 7100 holds to start with and then if we can get a rise towards 7180+.

Good luck today.

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