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Bear Tuesday on the cards with 7600 7625 7656 resistance | 7565 7528 7516 support

#1 · 8th February 2022, 10:23 am

Quote from Nick on 8th February 2022, 10:23 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed in the green Monday, led by banking stocks as investors continued to bet on rising interest rates globally, while stronger commodity prices lifted mining shares. The blue-chip index rose 0.8%, with HSBC , Barclays and Lloyds Group up about 2pc each, extending last week's winning run. The FTSE100 is flirting with the 7600 level once again - the level we dropped off on Friday.

Miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto provided the biggest boost, as aluminium prices in China jumped 3pc, while Shanghai steel and iron ore futures also rose on hopes of economic stimulus.

U.S. stocks fell late in the Monday session, led by declines in tech giants Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet, as investors weigh the potential impact of tightening monetary policy on the economic outlook.

Sovereign bonds skidded again Tuesday and the dollar rose as investors grappled with the implications of global monetary tightening. The mood in stocks was sapped by a China slide and wavering equity futures.

Treasuries fell, with a clutch of investors predicting the U.S. 10-year yield could soon hit 2%. In Australia, the equivalent rate climbed to the highest since March 2020. The prospect of more aggressive central bank steps to curtail high inflation is unnerving fixed-income markets.

Japanese shares advanced amid a weaker yen, but China’s CSI 300 index fell. Stocks struggled in Hong Kong, where shares in biotech giant Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc. sank and were suspended after the firm was added to a list of companies that may need extra permits to buy products from U.S. entities.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures fluctuated. Wall Street stocks on Monday ended a choppy session in the red, hurt by the technology sector.

Oil’s scorching rally took a breather, with attention turning to Iran nuclear talks that could lead to a resumption of official crude exports from the Persian Gulf producer. Bitcoin pushed toward $45,000.

Not Complying

The U.S. is losing patience with China after the nation failed to meet its purchase commitments under their trade agreement reached during the Trump administration, according to American officials. China had pledged to buy an extra $200 billion in U.S. agriculture, energy and manufactured products over the 2017 level in the two years through the end of 2021. New data from the U.S. is out Tuesday. With the mid-terms in November, the White House is under increasing pressure to show it’s willing to punish China for not holding up its end of the bargain. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan just reached an agreement to remove Trump-era steel tariffs.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 8th February 2022

We got a decent bull Monday in the end yesterday and the bulls are back testing the 7600 level that we dropped off from Friday. As such we could see an initial dip off this to start with, though the 7625 resistance level above is now back in play. The S&P continues to chop sideways with no clear break one way or the other for the moment, though the bulls will be keen to break above the 4500 level soon, as we have decent resistance there to start with today.

With the FTSE100 strength yesterday the 2h chart has gone bullish once again, and we have decent support at the 7570 level from both the coral and the Hull moving average. As such if we get a drop down to this area this morning then we may well see a bounce here. If that holds then it bodes well for continued upside towards the 7650 area above, and also keep alive the 7700 level in the not too distant future.

The Raff channels continue to head upwards though remain wide, so no support or resistance from them directly in play at the moment. The trend is up though!

The 7625 level does look fairly key to start with today as we also have R1 and the key fib here, along with that daily level. I would therefore expect a reaction here, though as per usual look to get stops to breakeven ASAP.

Support wise, the bears will be looking to break that 7570 level though we have the daily pivot and the 30m 200ema fairly close to that at the 7555 level. Below this then S1 at 7528 and the key fib at 7516 would be the next area of note, and may well be seen if we start to get a bear Tuesday play out.

Seasonality seems to be playing out more on the S&P500 at the moment, with the weaker January and February period, with the bulls reappearing in earnest at the end of the month. The FTSE100 continues to remain fairly buoyant having been the laggard for so long its quite nice not to see it following the S&P so slavishly! Cable dropping off once again from the 136 resistance level is also helping to lend some support to the FTSE100.

If the bears were to break below the 7515 level then then 7499 again from Friday is next, with 7450 below that, though I don't think we will get that low today. The S&P500 looks like it needs to defend the 4460 level and with the key fib support at 4462 we could see this hold. As mentioned the bulls need to break above the 4500 level as we may well then see 4520 (Hull MA) and then 4540 (2h coral).

The ASX200 was fairly flat today, while Asia was a bit bearish, and that may just see further FTSE100 consolidation around this 7600 level.

So, could be an interesting one today, keep an eye on 7600, 7625 and 7655 for resistance, 7570, 7530 and 7500 for support.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.

Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits

Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates

FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 closed in the green Monday, led by banking stocks as investors continued to bet on rising interest rates globally, while stronger commodity prices lifted mining shares. The blue-chip index rose 0.8%, with HSBC , Barclays and Lloyds Group up about 2pc each, extending last week's winning run. The FTSE100 is flirting with the 7600 level once again - the level we dropped off on Friday.

Miners Anglo American and Rio Tinto provided the biggest boost, as aluminium prices in China jumped 3pc, while Shanghai steel and iron ore futures also rose on hopes of economic stimulus.

U.S. stocks fell late in the Monday session, led by declines in tech giants Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet, as investors weigh the potential impact of tightening monetary policy on the economic outlook.

Sovereign bonds skidded again Tuesday and the dollar rose as investors grappled with the implications of global monetary tightening. The mood in stocks was sapped by a China slide and wavering equity futures.

Treasuries fell, with a clutch of investors predicting the U.S. 10-year yield could soon hit 2%. In Australia, the equivalent rate climbed to the highest since March 2020. The prospect of more aggressive central bank steps to curtail high inflation is unnerving fixed-income markets.

Japanese shares advanced amid a weaker yen, but China’s CSI 300 index fell. Stocks struggled in Hong Kong, where shares in biotech giant Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc. sank and were suspended after the firm was added to a list of companies that may need extra permits to buy products from U.S. entities.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures fluctuated. Wall Street stocks on Monday ended a choppy session in the red, hurt by the technology sector.

Oil’s scorching rally took a breather, with attention turning to Iran nuclear talks that could lead to a resumption of official crude exports from the Persian Gulf producer. Bitcoin pushed toward $45,000.

Not Complying

The U.S. is losing patience with China after the nation failed to meet its purchase commitments under their trade agreement reached during the Trump administration, according to American officials. China had pledged to buy an extra $200 billion in U.S. agriculture, energy and manufactured products over the 2017 level in the two years through the end of 2021. New data from the U.S. is out Tuesday. With the mid-terms in November, the White House is under increasing pressure to show it’s willing to punish China for not holding up its end of the bargain. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Japan just reached an agreement to remove Trump-era steel tariffs.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 8th February 2022

We got a decent bull Monday in the end yesterday and the bulls are back testing the 7600 level that we dropped off from Friday. As such we could see an initial dip off this to start with, though the 7625 resistance level above is now back in play. The S&P continues to chop sideways with no clear break one way or the other for the moment, though the bulls will be keen to break above the 4500 level soon, as we have decent resistance there to start with today.

With the FTSE100 strength yesterday the 2h chart has gone bullish once again, and we have decent support at the 7570 level from both the coral and the Hull moving average. As such if we get a drop down to this area this morning then we may well see a bounce here. If that holds then it bodes well for continued upside towards the 7650 area above, and also keep alive the 7700 level in the not too distant future.

The Raff channels continue to head upwards though remain wide, so no support or resistance from them directly in play at the moment. The trend is up though!

The 7625 level does look fairly key to start with today as we also have R1 and the key fib here, along with that daily level. I would therefore expect a reaction here, though as per usual look to get stops to breakeven ASAP.

Support wise, the bears will be looking to break that 7570 level though we have the daily pivot and the 30m 200ema fairly close to that at the 7555 level. Below this then S1 at 7528 and the key fib at 7516 would be the next area of note, and may well be seen if we start to get a bear Tuesday play out.

Seasonality seems to be playing out more on the S&P500 at the moment, with the weaker January and February period, with the bulls reappearing in earnest at the end of the month. The FTSE100 continues to remain fairly buoyant having been the laggard for so long its quite nice not to see it following the S&P so slavishly! Cable dropping off once again from the 136 resistance level is also helping to lend some support to the FTSE100.

If the bears were to break below the 7515 level then then 7499 again from Friday is next, with 7450 below that, though I don't think we will get that low today. The S&P500 looks like it needs to defend the 4460 level and with the key fib support at 4462 we could see this hold. As mentioned the bulls need to break above the 4500 level as we may well then see 4520 (Hull MA) and then 4540 (2h coral).

The ASX200 was fairly flat today, while Asia was a bit bearish, and that may just see further FTSE100 consolidation around this 7600 level.

So, could be an interesting one today, keep an eye on 7600, 7625 and 7655 for resistance, 7570, 7530 and 7500 for support.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates