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Another Day, another inflation figure | CPI today 6 or 7% | 7668 7699 7714 resistance | 7625 7600 support

#1 · 10th February 2022, 10:33 am

Quote from Nick on 10th February 2022, 10:33 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 surged to a two-year high yesterday after Boris Johnson hinted all remaining Covid rules could be scrapped early. The blue-chip index gained 1.1pc to hit its highest level since January 2020 amid hopes an end to the pandemic could be in sight. The rise stalled at the 7655 resistance level though, ahead of CPI data from the US today. A higher-than-anticipated reading could stoke bets on a more aggressive Fed liftoff in March and inject more volatility into stocks and bonds.

The Prime Minister said he expected the last domestic rules – including the requirement to self-isolate following a positive test – to be ditched from February 21.

The FTSE was driven higher by gains for travel and leisure stocks including British Airways parent company IAG, Premier Inn owner Whitbread and B&Q owner Kingfisher.

Asian stocks were steady Thursday, while U.S. equity futures dipped, as traders awaited inflation data that may shape views on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy.

Shares rose in Japan and fell in Hong Kong, while China wavered. The region failed to harness all of the tailwind from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 extended a broad rally Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 jumped over 2%. Uber Technologies Inc. and Walt Disney Co. gained in late trading on robust earnings.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower in the wake of a strong auction. The gap between two-year and 10-year yields was around the narrowest since October 2020. The dollar was little changed.

Oil’s rally has stalled around $90 a barrel. Gold was at a two-week high on demand for the metal as a store of value amid concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions.

U.S. data later Thursday are expected to show inflation exceeding 7%. A higher-than-anticipated reading could stoke bets on a more aggressive Fed liftoff in March and inject further volatility into stocks and bonds.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th February 2022

Today's big event will be the US CPI data out at 1330 with the forecast at 7.3%, a slight increase again on last month. The FTSE has held around the 7655 level overnight as well for a bit of consolidation, however I am expecting a bit of a dip and rise to play out today across the board today.

On the FTSE100 7625 and then 7600 remain supports for the moment, and the S&P500 key supports for today are at 4567 daily pivot and then 4531 if that higher support should break. Should it get tested I would like to see this lower support hold as that keeps alive a rise towards the 4600 level or higher.

That movement should reflect in the FTSE100 as well, with any dip getting bought up. The 2h chart remains bullish and the Hull MA is now at 7620, along with the green coral at 7595 currently (both rising though so those supports moving up during today). The trend remains up for the moment.

Initial resistance for today is at yesterdays high at 7668, and then 7699 above that. I can see a stutter at this higher resistance level should it get there, and we may well see some profit taking at this round number as well. R2 is just above here too at 7713. Ergo some shorting action around here is worth doing.

Above 7713 the bulls would be looking toward 7759 R3 though that feels a big ask, even more so if inflation figures spook the markets.

Support wise, 7625 7600 as mentioned, and then below that the 7560 level is back in play with S2 here for today. Below S3 which is at 7529, we have the daily coral at 7478 and the bottom of the 10d Raff at 7450 though I am not expecting us to see any of these levels today. 7600 support looks pretty key for the moment so a break of that would be fairly significant and may well kill this current bullish run we are in.

The S&P has got a bit overextended at the 4590 area so a pullback just to cool things down before more upside would make sense. I would like to see 4567 hold (mainly as I like the number pattern!) though will watch for 4531 as well should that break. Would be worth shorting a break of the daily pivot.

So, basically looking at a dip and rise to play out, and dont forget the CPI at 1330 today.

Good luck today.

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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

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Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.

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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

The FTSE 100 surged to a two-year high yesterday after Boris Johnson hinted all remaining Covid rules could be scrapped early. The blue-chip index gained 1.1pc to hit its highest level since January 2020 amid hopes an end to the pandemic could be in sight. The rise stalled at the 7655 resistance level though, ahead of CPI data from the US today. A higher-than-anticipated reading could stoke bets on a more aggressive Fed liftoff in March and inject more volatility into stocks and bonds.

The Prime Minister said he expected the last domestic rules – including the requirement to self-isolate following a positive test – to be ditched from February 21.

The FTSE was driven higher by gains for travel and leisure stocks including British Airways parent company IAG, Premier Inn owner Whitbread and B&Q owner Kingfisher.

Asian stocks were steady Thursday, while U.S. equity futures dipped, as traders awaited inflation data that may shape views on how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy.

Shares rose in Japan and fell in Hong Kong, while China wavered. The region failed to harness all of the tailwind from Wall Street, where the S&P 500 extended a broad rally Wednesday and the Nasdaq 100 jumped over 2%. Uber Technologies Inc. and Walt Disney Co. gained in late trading on robust earnings.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower in the wake of a strong auction. The gap between two-year and 10-year yields was around the narrowest since October 2020. The dollar was little changed.

Oil’s rally has stalled around $90 a barrel. Gold was at a two-week high on demand for the metal as a store of value amid concerns over inflation and geopolitical tensions.

U.S. data later Thursday are expected to show inflation exceeding 7%. A higher-than-anticipated reading could stoke bets on a more aggressive Fed liftoff in March and inject further volatility into stocks and bonds.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 10th February 2022

Today's big event will be the US CPI data out at 1330 with the forecast at 7.3%, a slight increase again on last month. The FTSE has held around the 7655 level overnight as well for a bit of consolidation, however I am expecting a bit of a dip and rise to play out today across the board today.

On the FTSE100 7625 and then 7600 remain supports for the moment, and the S&P500 key supports for today are at 4567 daily pivot and then 4531 if that higher support should break. Should it get tested I would like to see this lower support hold as that keeps alive a rise towards the 4600 level or higher.

That movement should reflect in the FTSE100 as well, with any dip getting bought up. The 2h chart remains bullish and the Hull MA is now at 7620, along with the green coral at 7595 currently (both rising though so those supports moving up during today). The trend remains up for the moment.

Initial resistance for today is at yesterdays high at 7668, and then 7699 above that. I can see a stutter at this higher resistance level should it get there, and we may well see some profit taking at this round number as well. R2 is just above here too at 7713. Ergo some shorting action around here is worth doing.

Above 7713 the bulls would be looking toward 7759 R3 though that feels a big ask, even more so if inflation figures spook the markets.

Support wise, 7625 7600 as mentioned, and then below that the 7560 level is back in play with S2 here for today. Below S3 which is at 7529, we have the daily coral at 7478 and the bottom of the 10d Raff at 7450 though I am not expecting us to see any of these levels today. 7600 support looks pretty key for the moment so a break of that would be fairly significant and may well kill this current bullish run we are in.

The S&P has got a bit overextended at the 4590 area so a pullback just to cool things down before more upside would make sense. I would like to see 4567 hold (mainly as I like the number pattern!) though will watch for 4531 as well should that break. Would be worth shorting a break of the daily pivot.

So, basically looking at a dip and rise to play out, and dont forget the CPI at 1330 today.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates