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After the drop comes the buying | dead cat or crisis averted | 7580 7600 7688 resistance | 7513 7450 support

#1 · 15th February 2022, 11:14 am

Quote from Nick on 15th February 2022, 11:14 am
FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

As much as £54bn was wiped from London’s top 350 companies yesterday morning as growing fears of war between Russia and Ukraine spooked investors.
The FTSE 100 fell 1.9pc, while the FTSE 250 dropped 2.3pc. Meanwhile, oil and gas prices both soared as traders geared up for a conflict.

Banking stocks were the biggest drag on the blue-chip index as investors rushed towards safer assets. Airline stocks also tumbled, with British Airways owner IAG falling 6pc and Hungarian budget carrier Wizz Air down 9pc.

It comes just days after the FTSE 100 rose to a 22-month high – finally clawing back its pandemic losses.

Asian stocks slipped in choppy trading Tuesday as traders parsed geopolitical risks and worries about Federal Reserve policy tightening. Chinese shares outperformed on central bank steps to aid economic growth.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge fell for a third session. China bucked the trend after its central bank undertook a cash injection to support expansion. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures erased earlier gains and European contracts retreated.

Treasury yields edged down amid a flatter curve signaling concerns that looming Fed interest-rate hikes could choke economic growth. The ebb and flow of haven demand due to the Russia-Ukraine standoff has also whipsawed bonds. The yen rose and gold touched an eight-month high.

The European tensions are still keeping oil markets on edge. West Texas Intermediate crude inched lower but remained around $95 a barrel after earlier scaling that mark for the first time since 2014.

Elsewhere in commodities, iron ore futures tumbled by some 10% in Singapore on China’s push to rein in prices. Australia, one the material’s major exporters, saw its currency slide.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th February 2022

The run down on the S&P stabilised at the 4360 area and having now closed that short I am hoping that we get a bit of a bounce from this support area. As you saw yesterday it just takes one statement on the Russia situation to change the picture, for better or worse. With prices holding steady on the support areas at present we may well see a bit of a recovery today. We missed out on Bull Monday and may well see that spin into today instead as a bit of a dead cat bounce plays out today.

The FTSE100 is defending the 7500 level pretty well and that may well hold again today for a rise up towards the 30m 200ema at 7580. Also that would be another back test of the previous support. The 2h chart remains bearish and in fact the coral has now turned red (showing a downtrend that timeframe) as you would expect after the dip yesterday, and has resistance at the 7620 level. As such the bulls will be keen to break above this level. Initially though 7550 for the daily pivot, then the 7580 as mentioned are the main resistance levels to watch for today.

We are not far off the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel as well, and that has support for today at 7485. The key fib level for today is also at 7486 so a tentative long off this level is worth a go. A break below this though and then the next major support is 7450, with 7405 below that. 7400 is also S2 (7470 is S1), though to get that low today it will need more fear over the Ukraine situation.

Today I would not be surprised to see a bit of a relief rally in the US. The S&P could quite easily regain some of the ground it lost yesterday and rise towards the key fib at 4427. The 2h resistance is just above that at 4444 as well from the Hull MA, along with the red coral at 4494 currently. A short at 4440 would be worth a go, with 4467 above that. With the 30m coral going green there are some very tentative green shoots for the bulls today to start with.

The Dax is also just about hanging onto the 15000 level though with yesterday's move down to 14900 before recovering, and the fib level for support at 14916 today we may see a repeat of that move. Watch that 14915 level for support.

Generally to start with it looks like we may well get that rise and dip play out today. The ASX200 did a similar play today and I am thinking that the FTSE and S&P will probably do the same.

Good luck today.

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If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

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FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

As much as £54bn was wiped from London’s top 350 companies yesterday morning as growing fears of war between Russia and Ukraine spooked investors.
The FTSE 100 fell 1.9pc, while the FTSE 250 dropped 2.3pc. Meanwhile, oil and gas prices both soared as traders geared up for a conflict.

Banking stocks were the biggest drag on the blue-chip index as investors rushed towards safer assets. Airline stocks also tumbled, with British Airways owner IAG falling 6pc and Hungarian budget carrier Wizz Air down 9pc.

It comes just days after the FTSE 100 rose to a 22-month high – finally clawing back its pandemic losses.

Asian stocks slipped in choppy trading Tuesday as traders parsed geopolitical risks and worries about Federal Reserve policy tightening. Chinese shares outperformed on central bank steps to aid economic growth.

An Asia-Pacific share gauge fell for a third session. China bucked the trend after its central bank undertook a cash injection to support expansion. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures erased earlier gains and European contracts retreated.

Treasury yields edged down amid a flatter curve signaling concerns that looming Fed interest-rate hikes could choke economic growth. The ebb and flow of haven demand due to the Russia-Ukraine standoff has also whipsawed bonds. The yen rose and gold touched an eight-month high.

The European tensions are still keeping oil markets on edge. West Texas Intermediate crude inched lower but remained around $95 a barrel after earlier scaling that mark for the first time since 2014.

Elsewhere in commodities, iron ore futures tumbled by some 10% in Singapore on China’s push to rein in prices. Australia, one the material’s major exporters, saw its currency slide.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 15th February 2022

The run down on the S&P stabilised at the 4360 area and having now closed that short I am hoping that we get a bit of a bounce from this support area. As you saw yesterday it just takes one statement on the Russia situation to change the picture, for better or worse. With prices holding steady on the support areas at present we may well see a bit of a recovery today. We missed out on Bull Monday and may well see that spin into today instead as a bit of a dead cat bounce plays out today.

The FTSE100 is defending the 7500 level pretty well and that may well hold again today for a rise up towards the 30m 200ema at 7580. Also that would be another back test of the previous support. The 2h chart remains bearish and in fact the coral has now turned red (showing a downtrend that timeframe) as you would expect after the dip yesterday, and has resistance at the 7620 level. As such the bulls will be keen to break above this level. Initially though 7550 for the daily pivot, then the 7580 as mentioned are the main resistance levels to watch for today.

We are not far off the bottom of the 10 day Raff channel as well, and that has support for today at 7485. The key fib level for today is also at 7486 so a tentative long off this level is worth a go. A break below this though and then the next major support is 7450, with 7405 below that. 7400 is also S2 (7470 is S1), though to get that low today it will need more fear over the Ukraine situation.

Today I would not be surprised to see a bit of a relief rally in the US. The S&P could quite easily regain some of the ground it lost yesterday and rise towards the key fib at 4427. The 2h resistance is just above that at 4444 as well from the Hull MA, along with the red coral at 4494 currently. A short at 4440 would be worth a go, with 4467 above that. With the 30m coral going green there are some very tentative green shoots for the bulls today to start with.

The Dax is also just about hanging onto the 15000 level though with yesterday's move down to 14900 before recovering, and the fib level for support at 14916 today we may see a repeat of that move. Watch that 14915 level for support.

Generally to start with it looks like we may well get that rise and dip play out today. The ASX200 did a similar play today and I am thinking that the FTSE and S&P will probably do the same.

Good luck today.

Recommended Broker

IC Markets - offers market leading pricing and trading conditions by providing clients with True ECN Connectivity; this allows you to trade on institutional grade liquidity from the world’s leading investment banks, hedge funds and dark pool liquidity execution venues. Highly recommended!

Membership and Live Trading

If you would like more detailed analysis for FTSE 100, DAX, Gold and S&P, including the trades that I am looking to take myself, then please join my active members community.

What you get

Daily Analysis pre market open (sent around 7am each day) for FTSE, DAX, Gold and S&P.
Daily email pre market includes my trading plan for the day including ORDER levels, with stops and targets/limits
Telegram live trading room and webinar group membership for discussion and realtime trade updates