Technical analysis for 4th November 2025
FTSE100 Bias
- Bias: Mildly bearish / range-bound with downside tilt.
- Expected Range: 9,610 – 9,720.
- Likely Path: Small early bounce toward 9,690 → fresh sell-off → test of 9,640–9,625 before late-session stabilisation.
S&P500 Bias
- Bias: Mildly Bullish, but showing signs of near-term consolidation
- Why: According to a recent technical review: “The S&P 500 often has conflicting technical signals, but last week’s action provided a clear bullish bias.” Moving averages remain in bullish alignment (short-term above long-term) and the broader trend is upward. However, the index is showing signs of being extended, and technical commentary suggests that a resolution (either breakout or pullback) is likely soon.
- Interpretation: Buy-on-dips is the preferred posture. The trend remains intact, but upside from here may be more limited until fresh catalyst emerges. A break below key support would shift the bias to neutral.
DAX40 Bias
- Bias: Neutral to Mildly Bullish
- Why: The DAX remains in a long-term uptrend and technical signals from major platforms show bullish or “buy” readings when above critical support. Price action has been favourable, but resistance levels are becoming material, and upside acceleration is not guaranteed without further momentum. Some shorter-term analyses show that on lower timeframes the DAX is signaling caution (e.g., moving averages turning less reliable).
- Interpretation: The strategy is to buy supportive dips while the trend remains intact. Aggressive breakouts should be treated with caution unless confirmed. A failure to hold support would weaken the bullish bias.
Bear Tuesday kicking in already and the ghost spike level that we saw over the weekend to 9630 looks like it will be tested today. There is however initial support at the 9650 level with the key fib and S2 here, so we could see this hold to start with, but an overshoot lower would make sense before a bit of a fight back from the bulls.
It's looking like a rise and dip day across the board today, with an attempt by the bulls to regain some control, but don't forget that having tested the 9750 level we were expecting a bit of a drop back before the year end rally resumes, targeting 9800+. Certainly seems to be playing out.
The bears will be aiming to break the 9630 level of course as that would then lead to a test of 9600 and daily support at 9596. Just as a note, there is some much lower daily support down at 9475 - I am not really thinking we see this any time soon but if we did it should get a bounce.
For the bulls, if they were to regain control and break above the 9714 level then we have the 2h resistance zone at the 9750 area once again with the Hull MA and the red coral here - feels like that might be a big ask today though! We are also seeing jitters come in ahead of the UK Budget this week. 2026 might well be a grim year!
On the news front we have JOLTS at 15:00 which may well see some volatility.
S&P500
Much the same scenario looks possible today with a rise and dip playing out. I am looking at the 6860 level as the main resistance as we have a cluster of levels here as you can see form the table, and we are also just on key fib support at 6791 as I write this. The bulls will be attempting to get the price back above the 6800 level but a bear Tuesday looks to be on the cards here, especially as the 2h chart is firmly bearish, and the price is attempting to break below the 10d Raff channel.
DAX40
Annoying for it to get as high at 24250 before dropping back considerably, however once again it's short the rallies mode on this with the 24105 area looking to be key resistance. We also have the daily 25ema here at 24120 and with the daily chart now locked in as bearish this area looks to be a good shorting level. It's also the pivot, 200ema and coral as you can see from the table. A rise to here then a drop back to the 23820 S2 level would certainly fit the chart well!
Good luck today.
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