Technical analysis for FTSE 100 for 15th April 2024
Britain's FTSE 100 rose to a near-record closing high on Friday as soaring commodity prices lifted mining and oil stocks, while data showed Britain's tepid economy is on course to exit a shallow recession. The resources-heavy index breached the 8,000 mark at one point before closing 0.9% higher at 7,995.58, not far from its all-time closing peak of 8,014.31 set in February 2023.
The blue-chip benchmark earlier touched a session high of 8,044.98 - bringing it close to its intraday high of 8,047.06, also hit in February 2023.
Investors also took heart from data that showed Britain's gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% in monthly terms in February, as expected in a Reuters poll of economists, while January's reading was revised to show growth of 0.3%.
The data will allow the Bank of England (BoE) to feel comfortable about cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024, as it's looking for an economy that's strong enough to see growth holding up but not too strong to see inflation reaccelerate. Traders currently expect the BoE to ease rates in August.
Gains in the FTSE 100 came even as sterling fell to a five-month low against the dollar.
FTSE 100 technical analysis for today, 15th April 2024
First things first.... will tension ratchet up? Everyone waiting to see if Israel retaliates for Iran's retaliatory missile barrage, in retaliation to...... and so it goes on. One tiny little planet that we all live on and yet we never seem to learn from the past. Anyway......
I hope you had a good weekend! Looking at the technicals we have had a decent drop off the 8030 resistance and the double top with the all time high at 8045 area too. The bulls will of course be keen to break above this and ultimately we may still see the 8300 level..... nuclear armageddon notwithstanding!
Initial resistance is at the Hull MA on the 2h chart at 7970 so this will be the first hurdle with a test above that of the 8010 level looking likely. We have R1 and the key fib here so we could see the bears have a go here, and a bit of profit taking given the climb from 7930 being Fridays low.
Above 8010 and then Fridays high is back in play at 8045, with 8110 above that. Might be a big ask but if the status quo remains and we don't see a ramping up of global war then we could be on for that this week.
Meanwhile support wise for today we have the 7935 level as the main one first up being Fridays low and would be a decent double bottom to set up a bounce. At the end of the day if we are all going to war might as well buy some shares in the meantime until we see it happen!
Below that then the 7890 is the key fib and 7885 is S1 so should we slide I would like to see a bounce here. Lower down than the 7832 daily support is the next level to keep an eye out for with 7779 below that.
We may well have a bit of a wait and see day today as the world watches for the next move in the Middle East. We have USA March retail sales out at 1330 which may paint a rosier picture (or not!).
Traditionally wars are good for markets and with oil price rising that will boost Shell and BP sentiment, the two of which are main constituents of the FTSE100 so helping to underpin some strength, along with cable dropping off also helping.
Good luck today, keep an eye on 7970 and 8010 for resistance.
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