Last full day pre Christmas with 7575 and 7615 resistance | Drift up Santa Rally | 7552 support

Last full day pre Christmas with 7575 and 7615 resistance | Drift up Santa Rally | 7552 support

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 23rd December 2019

Today is the last full trading day before the break and will be the last post till 2020. I will do the next one on Monday 6th January. I’d like to wish you and your family a Happy Christmas and a Happy New Year.

The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both ended Friday fairly flat, with news levels broadly subdued ahead of the holidays. Today may well be more of the same, though a drift higher on the FTSE towards 7615 would play out well before some profit taking there.

New BoE head
The next governor of the Bank of England will be Andrew Bailey who is currently head of the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority. He will take the position on March 16, with Mark Carney remaining as head of the bank until then. This means Carney will lead the bank through the U.K.’s exit from the European Union which will occur on Jan 31. That exit date is almost guaranteed now that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has such a large majority in the House of Commons. There was some good economic news for Johnson this morning when U.K. third-quarter growth was revised higher.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Will we see a continuation of the Boris bounce today? Cable has dropped down to 130 but is now on some daily support and a rise off that may temper the FTSE100 upside for today. However, the 7550 level is decent support to start with today so if we see this hold early on then we should get a rise back towards the 7575 level where we have the 30min resistance. Above this then the bulls will be pushing for Fridays high at 7604, though there is 2 hour resistance also at 7615 and as such we may well see a rise stall here. Should the bulls break above this then we are looking at a rise towards the  top of the 20 day Raff channel at 7707. That would be the sort of area that we may well close the year out, so watch for this between now and the end of the year.

FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis
FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | Analysis

Of course, this week and next will be very low volume and fairly choppy so do stay nimble. The market may well drift a bit on some days, and then overreact on others.

On the bearish side of the coin then, a drop through 7550 leads to the 30min supports at 7335 where we have the 200ema and fib level for today. The ASX200 had a fairly flat day with a small bounce off the support before dropping again, and we may well have a similar pattern. Below the 7335 level then ultimately there is the 25ema on the daily still to be tested currently at 7389, however I would expect the 7504 round number support area to hold today if it were to get that low.

I have plotted the blue arrows as my preferred path for today, but the pink is the plan B if the bulls break above the 7578 resistance level.

The S&P dropped off the 3224 resistance level that we had for Friday, however, not by very much, as the bears are reluctant to get too short at the moment. We also have a reluctance to book profits at that will trigger a tax liability this tax year for those in the USA, so may well see more upside for 2019 and then a drop (maybe a fairly significant one) in early January.

So, watching for a drift higher today if 7550 holds as support and also watching 7535. For resistance 7575 and then 7615 are the main ones I am looking at.

Have a great break, and I wish you a healthy and happy 2020!

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