FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
Stocks in Asia rose Wednesday as investors weighed prospects for a de-escalation in the war in Ukraine that could reduce pressure on commodity prices, allowing inflation to ease and slowing the pace of monetary policy tightening.
A gauge of Asia Pacific shares rose for a second day, lifted by Hong Kong and China. Equities fell in Japan as the yen lifted off a six-year low and as some stocks traded without the rights to the next dividend. U.S. futures wavered after the S&P 500 gained for a fourth day and the Nasdaq 100 also climbed.
Meanwhile, the bond market is flashing a recession signal in the U.S. The two-year yield briefly exceeded the 10-year on Tuesday for the first time since 2019, reinforcing the view that Federal Reserve rate increases may cause a recession. Elsewhere, Bank of America warned that the S&P’s stock surge is a bear-market trap.
US job openings hovered near a record high in February, continuing a trend that the Federal Reserve sees as a major driver of inflation. There were 11.3m available jobs last month, matching January’s figure and just below December’s record of 11.4m, according to the Labor Department.
The number of Americans quitting their jobs was also historically high, at 4.4m. Many people are taking advantage of numerous opportunities to switch jobs, often for higher pay. The vast majority of those quitting do so to take another position.
Tactical Pullback
Russia offered to “fundamentally cut back” its military operations in Kyivand the northern city of Chernihiv, sparking optimism that a peace deal could be on the way. But there’s strong reason for caution. Although Moscow presented the move as de-escalatory, it is likely also to be tactical. Ukraine’s military has been inflicting heavy losses and Russian commanders had already said they planned to re-concentrate their forces in the east. The U.S. was skeptical, with one Pentagon spokesman branding the move “a repositioning, not a real withdrawal.” Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has left the future of the International Space Station in dire straits.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 30th March 2022
The bulls failed to break above the 7582 resistance level yesterday but they have managed to defend the 7500 area. As such we may well see a push again today towards the 7600 level where we have the next cluster of resistance at 7597 and 7603.
Initially the 30m chart is a bit bearish to start with so we may well see a dip and rise play out today. The daily pivot is also at 7548 so the initial hurdle for the bulls is here.
We have decent support at the 7500 level as well, with the 200ema at 7503 and 7500 for the key fib level. S1 is also at 7509.
Overnight the prices have held steady around the 7500 level, and the S&P500 has also remained above 4600. The 2h charts are also bullish for the FTSE100, Dax40, and S&P500, while gold continues to front run and has a bearish 2h chart with 1930-1940 resistance in play.
Above the 7600 level then the bulls will be looking to R2 at 7635, and possibly 7685 R3, though that feels a big ask, despite some tentative positive news on the war front. Russian forces pulling back or regrouping?
For the bears, below the 7500 level then 7459 is S2 though I am still thinking that we will see a drop back soon to test the 25ema on the daily at 7400 now, before more upside. The daily Raff channels continue to head upwards and we are just in the middle of them at the moment, so no real trades today from those channels.
S&P500
The bulls are still in charge for the moment but we are getting near to some decent resistance at the 4650 level and we may well see them have a go here. As with the FTSE100, its looking bullish still but a pullback shortly to the 25ema on the daily at the 4450 level may well play out. Support initially is at the 4612 daily pivot.
Dax40
Initial resistance is at the 14889 key fib level and then the R1 and 10d Raff channel at 14990 above that. The bulls tried to push above 14900 yesterday but got pushed back. If any dip today gets defended, and I am looking at the 14660 level as support, with 14582 below that to see a bounce. We also have the green 2h coral at 14485 for today which may well see the bulls have a go at.
Summary
The bulls continue to hang in across the board and I am thinking that once again we will get a dip and rise play out so keep an eye on the supports today. We have a very small 2.3 dividend today so negligible effect from that later.
Good luck today.
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