FTSE 100 Analysis | Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help
The FTSE 100 ended lower Monday, dragged down by weaker energy stocks as oil prices fell on China demand worries. After rising as much as 0.75pc, the blue-chip index closed 0.1pc lower, with oil majors BP Plc and Shell Plc down nearly 2.5pc each. After the bell the 7460 support level held well for another overnight rise back above 7500.
Oil prices dropped more than $6 as fears grew over weaker fuel demand in China after financial hub Shanghai’s lockdown to curb a surge in COVID-19 infections.
Asian stocks rose Tuesday as a drop in oil and the prospect of more cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine helped sentiment. Bets on aggressive U.S. monetary tightening sapped shorter maturity Treasuries.
Shares rose in Japan and Hong Kong but wavered in China. U.S. futures fluctuated and European contracts advanced after the S&P 500 rallied for a third day. Oil extended a slide, taking West Texas Intermediate crude to about $105 a barrel, on concerns that China’s mobility curbs against Covid will sap demand.
Toxic Talks?
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian negotiators suffered a suspected poisoning after meetings in Kyiv at the beginning of the month as part of talks to end the war in Ukraine. They experienced peeling skin, loss of eyesight and headaches, and flew to Turkey for treatment, people familiar with the situation said. It is unclear who was behind the attack or what type of poison might have been used. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden defended his off-script remark on Putin remaining in power; NATO allies are split over whether they should talk to the Russian leader; and two of the world’s biggest beermakers are pulling out of Russia.
Moving Higher
A climb in U.S. equities, a slump in crude oil and the prospect of more cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine looked set to provide some support for Asian stocks on Tuesday. Equity futures rose for Japan, Australia and Hong Kong, while U.S. contracts were steady, after megacaps and technology firms helped the S&P 500 index to climb for a third session. Global shares are up about 8% from the lows reached after Russia invaded Ukraine. Meanwhile, Bitcoin extended gains to close at a 2022 high of more than $48,000. It’s up 17% over the past week.
FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 29th March 2022
The FTSE short took a while to get going yesterday with a move up to the 7540 in the end before the bears appeared and took it down to the 7460 support level. Overnight that has held well for a bounce back above 7500 and the key level that the bulls will want to keep the FTSE100 above.
Initially today we have the key fib at 7546 and that is also just below the pre-invasion high at 7550. As such I am still expecting this area to be quite strong resistance initially until a decent break higher will see a rise towards the 7700 level. The Raff channels are both pretty bullish again now and heading up well. That said, a bit of a bear Tuesday would fit well!
Above the 7550 level then the next key resistance level is 7582 where we have the R2 level and then 7623 for R3.
For the support side of things, then the 7500 is the daily pivot and the round number, with 7477 the 200ema on the 30m below that. It is this moving average that we climbed off after the bell yesterday and once again should provide a support. Should the bears break below the 7477 level then 7443 is the key fib support, with 7459 as S1.
The 30m coral has now also turned green to start with lending support at the 7500 level.
The daily 25ema is down at 7386 for the moment and it’s possible that we may well still get a dip down to that before a further climb in April. Seasonally the bullishness has kicked in now as well.
So, for the FTSE100 looking at a bit of a rise-dip-rise to play out today.
S&P500
The bulls look to be on track to test the 4600 level or just below as we have R1 at 4598. 4591 is also the key fib to start with today. I am thinking a similar pattern on this today as well with a pullback from he round number and then finding support at the 4558 level later for another leg up. If the bulls can break above the 4600 level then we should see the R2 level at 4620. A break of the pivot though and 4515 30m 200ema is likely to get tested. I don’t think it will get that bearish today but bear that level in mind.
Dax40
Feels similar to the other two, with a drop down to the 2h support levels around the 14400 area likely to play out, probably dropping off R1 at 14675. As I write this it is just sitting on the key fib resistance at the 14612 level, but I do think we may well see a push through this first thing. If the bears do appear at R1 then the 14400 has a cluster of supports on both the 30m and 2h charts – corals, fib level and moving averages as you can see on the “key levels” list above.
Summary
Yesterdays levels worked well so feels like we are looking at the right pattern for the moment. I am thinking the bulls will struggle initially at the 7550 area, and in fact that drop off 7540 yesterday was fairly indicative of the strength of the resistance here so keep an eye on that level.
Good luck today.
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