Good morning. Interesting day yesterday that played out with the arrows exceptionally well – but frustratingly just missed the long order first thing by 3 points (knew I should have set it at 5975!). Overnight we have had the rise to the 5980n area and with the 200ema here on the 30min chart it will be interesting to see if we get an initial dip to the 5940 area, before a push higher towards 6035 where we have the top of the 10 day Bianca channel. Prices are certainly moving around a fair bit at the moment with the volatility. Glencore came out fighting yesterday (had to really!) and their shares rallied 17% after saying that the business was viable. Its the end of the quarter today so the market might be keen to apply a bit of polish to the performance, Asia certainly has with MSCI’s Asia Pacific gauge rallying 2 percent in Tokyo, trimming its loss since the end of June to less than 16 percent, still the most since at least the third quarter of 2011.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose on the final day of the quarter, tracking a late rally in U.S. shares, as the regional benchmark index headed for its worst three months since the financial crisis.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.3 percent to 121.40 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure has slumped 17 percent since the end of June, on course for the biggest drop since the quarter ended September 2008. It’s down 6.6 percent for the month.
Stocks have been volatile in recent weeks amid confusion over the Federal Reserve’s position on raising interest rates and concern the slowdown in China’s economy will curb demand for commodities and impact global growth. China starts a five-day holiday Thursday.
“Asian markets will be closing the month and quarter on what looks like a positive note,” said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG Ltd. in Melbourne “And given what an absolute shocker it’s been, traders will certainly take this.”
Japan’s Topix index advanced 1.5 percent after tumbling 4.4 percent on Tuesday. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 1.4 percent today as it reopened from a two-day holiday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slid 0.4 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.7 percent in most recent trading, while those on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 0.9 percent. The H-share gauge slid 3 percent on Tuesday, the biggest loss in a month, while the Hang Seng measure dropped 3 percent to a two-year low.
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge advanced 0.1 percent on Tuesday, following five days of losses. The S&P 500 is poised for its worst quarter since 2011, down 8.7 percent. The benchmark measure is almost 12 percent below its all-time high set in May. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook
The FTSE is just nearing the 200ema on the 30min chart as I write this so we may well see some resistance there and a little dip to start today, probably only down to the daily pivot at 5922. There is some rising 30min PRT support at 5930 as well, and with a green trend line now in play the 30min chart looks positive for a bullish session (at the moment anyway!). Its quarter end today so with bonuses etc tied into that, we may well have a bullish overtone. I think a rise towards the 10 day Bianca channel at 6035 is looking likely, and if it hits that level at around the market close, then a dip from there is also likely. We also have a PRT line at 6020 so a couple of resistance levels here. So bullish today, bearish tomorrow I am feeling!