Support 6150 6149 6147 6063 6046
Resistance 6183 6196 6207 6210 6284 6315
Good morning.
Market Summary for 15th March 2016
The FT100 retreated led by commodity shares, possibly due to the Bank of Japan presenting a bleaker view of the country’s economy.
Weak U.S. retail sales data also raised concerns about US growth prospects.
The Federal Reserve’s policy statement is today so this will be closely monitored for clues to future interest rate moves.
There is some nervousness of potentially hawkish remarks that would suggest a June rate rise is back on the table, however if
the Fed sounds more dovish than expected, shares are likely to stage a relief rally.
So the market is in a limbo state currently waiting for FED news and hovering around the centre of the recent range of 6100-6200.
In terms of sectors the commodity sector was very weak after poor figures from Antofagasta – one of the most volatile shares in the FT100 currently!
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
- S&P 500 Index posts first back-to-back declines this month
- U.S. central bank expected to keep interest rates on hold
Asian stocks fell before a Federal Reserve policy decision as a selloff in commodities weighed on material shares and a stronger yen hit Japanese exporters.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.4 percent to 126.42 as of 9 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.7 percent after the yen gained 0.6 percent against the dollar Tuesday, as global stocks retreated with crude and emerging-market assets. China’s National People’s Congress ends Wednesday, while the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting.
“The market has potentially significant press conferences to assess in the next 24 hours from both China’s Premier Li Keqiang” and Fed Chair Janet Yellen, said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “These both have the potential to influence investor thinking and traders are likely remaining cautious beforehand.”
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent. BHP Billiton Ltd. dropped 1.8 percent and was the one of the biggest drags on the regional equity gauge after the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell to a one-week low.
New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index fell 0.1 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index lost 0.5 percent. Shanghai stocks eked out a gain in late trading Tuesday amid speculation state-backed funds intervened to support the market during annual policy meetings.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge slid 0.2 percent Tuesday, posting back-to-back declines for the first time this month. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. plunged 51 percent after cutting its profit forecast. Investors are monitoring races for the Democratic and Republican party nominations for U.S. president, with Florida and Ohio among the five states holding votes.
Oil advanced on Wednesday, rebounding from the biggest two-day slump in a month, before U.S. inventory data forecast to show that stockpiles expanded. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
Today we have the UK budget, the Fed later who are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its two-day meeting, and an 8.1 dividend to be applied. So, expect the calmness of the past two sessions to disappear! To start with there is some fairly decent looking support at the 6145 area, as we have the daily pivot, the 200ema on 30min and the coral trend line here. So, if we dip down to that area first thing then we could see the bulls appear for a bit of a buy the rumour morning, before a drop back later from the resistance at 6184. If the bulls push past this then the top of the 10 day Bianca channel is 6210, which is around the most recent high and the area that stubbornly refuses to break. However, the more it is tested then eventually it will. The key will be seeing if the bulls can break 6184 first though. As mentioned most of todays action will depend on the bits of news, mostly the Fed. The divi will also likely see some buyers appear between 4pm and the bell, so it can be worth going for a long at around 16:00 and aim to close just before the bell (or before the divi is applied on your platform). If the bulls can break through the 6210 area today then it will be worth flipping to a long to target the 6280 area, and then I think my wild thought of a rise to 6350 might be on the cards.