Support 6154 6146 6141 61386121 6080 6060
Resistance 6201 6209 6230 6247
Good morning. Well that was quite a fight back by the bulls from the 6100 area with that dip yesterday morning, though it doesn’t feel a very convincing rally. Gold is climbing quite steadily at the moment, up from the 1215 area yesterday, so maybe anticipating some bearish equities. Yesterdays long off the pivot, short at 6132 worked well first thing and now we still have the 6209 area as resistance. The dividend yesterday saw the buyers appear at about 15:30, giving us a rise from 6110 to 6160 so you can see its worth going long if the divi is a decent amount.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
- Fed minutes affirmed no rush to raise, buoying yen to ringgit
- Oil extends gains after unexpected U.S. stockpile decline
Most Asian stocks climbed after Federal Reserve meeting minutes reaffirmed U.S. policy makers aren’t rushing to raise interest rates and the yen advanced to a 17-month high as Japanese officials’ expressions of concern failed to halt gains.
Health-care and energy shares drove the advance in Asia, tracking U.S. pharmaceutical company gains. Japanese stocks swung between gains and losses as the yen headed for its longest rally since January. The Malaysian ringgit climbed as crude extended gains following a 5.2 percent jump last session after U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly fell from the highest level in more than eight decades.
While they discussed the relative health of the American economy at their March meeting, Fed officials contrasted it to the persistent risks facing the global outlook. Traders are assigning zero chance of the Fed increasing rates in April, with the odds not topping 50 percent until its meeting in December. That sort of outlook is bad for the dollar, with the yen the biggest beneficiary this month among major currencies. Also burnishing market sentiment is oil’s return to gains, with the U.S. stockpiles drop easing concern over the global glut.
“We’ve got a fairly dovish Fed, and combined with the rally in crude, we’re seeing a positive performance in markets,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. “Despite what should be an overall risk-on environment, caution remains across the region ahead of the U.S. earnings season.”
Taiwan reported consumer prices rose 2 percent in March, above expectations of a 1.4 percent gain. Updates on foreign reserves are due Thursday from China, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent as of 1:46 p.m. Tokyo time, with health-care stocks jumping 2.2 percent, led by Japan’s Eisai Co. and Kyowa Hakko Kirin Co., as well as Korea-listed Celltrion Inc. Pfizer, the biggest U.S. drugmaker, increased 5 percent on Wednesday, while Allergan — the company it wanted to acquire — rose 3.5 percent.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent, while South Korea’s Kospi index slipped 0.2 percent as Samsung Electronics Co. fell after reporting better-than-estimated earnings. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index climbed 0.2 percent, rising a second day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.8 percent, sliding for a second day.
ZTE Corp. in Hong Kong fell as much as 16 percent, the biggest intraday decline in almost nine months, as China’s second-largest maker of telecommunications gear resumed trade for the first time since an investigation by the U.S. government said it violated trade sanctions with Iran.
Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed Thursday, following a 1.1 percent increase in the U.S. benchmark.
Currencies
The yen advanced for a fifth day, by 0.6 percent to 109.13 a dollar. That’s the longest run of gains in three months and the strongest level since October 2014.
Japan’s currency only briefly erased gains after a Ministry of Finance official said it would take necessary action if needed and there were one-sided moves in the yen market. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga made similar comments Thursday during a regularly scheduled press conference.
The Fed meeting records shed more light on officials’ decision to keep rates unchanged last month, after hiking from near zero in December. They showed U.S. policy makers debated an April rate hike, though several officials advocated a cautious approach, partly amid worries that slowing world growth could crimp the U.S. economy’s own expansion.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, was down 0.1 percent after halting a two-recovery Wednesday. Oil’s rally bolstered the ringgit, helping it gain 0.4 percent.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.9 percent to $38.08 a barrel following last session’s jump, which was its steepest one-day gain since March 16. Brent climbed 0.7 percent to $40.11.
U.S. crude stockpiles fell 4.94 million barrels last week, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, after analysts predicted a 2.85 million-barrel gain. Refineries processed the most oil in three months as output and imports slipped.
Gold for immediate delivery attempted a rebound, rising 0.4 percent to $1,226.98 an ounce following Wednesday’s 0.7 percent retreat. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
On first appearances this morning its not very clear what its going to do which makes this email a lot harder! However, we have the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6209 along with the live charts R2 level at 6208, so I feel that if we get a rise to this level then its worth a short as I still think we are due a crack at 6010 at some point soon. However, 6160 is a fairly key level and we have moved above that overnight, so the bulls still have hope that they can break and hold above 6200. If they do then the top of the Raffs are in play at 6230 as we will probably break that 6210 level. There is support from the pivot area at 6146 and the 200ema on the 30 min at around the 6140 area. So, I am thinking a long around this 6145 area,and a short off the 10 day channel at 6208ish, with the proviso that if the bulls break 6210 we are likely to see 6230 and possibly higher. They have certainly done a good (and surprising!) job of holding that 6090 low yesterday.