Support 6271 6263 6232 6223 6184
Resistance 6300 6315 6325 6330
Good morning I hope you had a good long weekend. The US was pretty strong yesterday and we have just had a surprise rate cut in Australia. Gold moved above $1300 for the first time in a while yesterday, after a bullish end to April, and looks like its going to keep going! With the US rising, the out of hour FTSE has risen from Fridays levels and could be on for 6300 again. We also have the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6330 today. In UK news, Leicester City have won the Premier League at 5000-1 odds at the start of the season!
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Australia’s dollar tumbled against all of its major peers, while the nation’s stocks and bonds rallied after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates. Asian stocks held near a two-week low as markets including China, Hong Kong and Singapore reopened following a holiday.
Australia’s currency slid 1 percent versus the greenback as Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a record low, a decision forecast by 12 of 27 economists in a Bloomberg survey. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped to its lowest level in almost a year as the yen advanced to an 18-month high. A gauge of regional equities that excludes Japan, where markets are shut until Friday, declined for a fifth day. Industrial metals dropped in London, while gold climbed to a 15-month high. Crude oil rose to around $45 a barrel in New York.
April manufacturing data released this week in the U.S., Europe and China will have done little to convince the Federal Reserve that the American and global economies can withstand higher borrowing costs. Output in the U.S. expanded in April by less than economists forecast, while pockets of weakness remain in China, the reports showed. While the greenback’s retreat is supporting raw-materials prices, a rebound in global equities is stumbling amid a mixed bag of quarterly earnings reports from the world’s biggest companies.
“We’re into the May doldrums where people are starting to reconsider portfolios and will probably not do too much,” said Sean Darby, chief global equity strategist in Hong Kong at Jefferies Group LLC. “They’ve either missed the rally from the first quarter or they’re getting a little bit too concerned about some of the weakness in the global data.”
It’s a big day for bank earnings, with BNP Paribas SA, Commerzbank AG and UBS Group AG all reporting on Tuesday. HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s largest bank, reported a bigger profit than analysts forecast as did DBS Group Holdings Ltd., Southeast Asia’s No. 1 lender. [Bloomberg]
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I have initial support at the 6263 area where we are looking at starting the day at 7am, this is support on the 2 hour chart. As such, if this holds then I am expecting a rise up towards the 6325/6330 resistance area. I also think that we will have a slightly bullish start as its the start of the new month and as such new money flows into funds etc. However, with the bank holiday yesterday the start can often be a little choppy on the first day back so bear that in mine. We have the 6263 support from the daily pivot area at 6270 and also the 100Hull Moving average on the 2 hour chart. As such, it’s a fairly simple plan for today with a rise then a dip from that 6325 area.