Support 6285 6282 6246 6212 6195
Resistance 6305 6317 6342 6393 6462

Good morning. Here we are, referendum day and its probably going to be choppy. Probably a good day to use the binaries for betting to limit the exposure to any whipsaw movements. Yesterday played out well with the rise from 6225 to 6300 and then a drop back. Was a bit hasty getting out of that late short but it looked quite strong at that point so the short looked like it would fail. But it dropped to 6255 before bouncing back and we are now above 6300 again as I write this. Mainly thanks to the latest bookie odds favouring Remain for the win.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

• As polls diverge, bookmakers’ odds favor win for “Remain”
• European currencies strengthen as oil gains boost ringgit

The pound climbed to this year’s high, the euro strengthened and Asian stocks rose, reflecting confidence that the U.K. will vote to remain a member of the European Union in Thursday’s referendum. Haven assets including the yen and sovereign bonds fell.

Sterling appreciated against all 31 major peers and European currencies accounted for all of the top four performers as bookmakers’ odds implied an 80 percent chance that Britain will stick with the EU, an outcome that polls suggest is far from certain. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to a two-week high and S&P 500 futures rallied. Malaysia’s ringgit and the Mexican peso climbed as crude oil extended gains above $49 a barrel, brightening prospects for oil-exporting nations. Australian and U.S. government bonds declined.

Investors have been glued to the Brexit debate in recent weeks amid speculation a U.K. vote to leave the 28-nation bloc would fuel global instability and give oxygen to anti-establishment sentiment elsewhere. While bookmakers see only an outside chance of victory for the “Leave” campaign, three of four polls published Wednesday showed the contest was too close to call and the fourth showed a clear lead for “Remain.” A gauge of expected volatility in U.S. stocks jumped to its highest level since February ahead of the referendum.

“Markets seem to have almost entirely priced in a “Remain” vote win, meaning that the market moves and volatility around the vote may be far less than many had been expecting,” said Angus Nicholson, a Melbourne-based analyst at IG Ltd. “Nonetheless, markets are still incredibly nervous.”

Preliminary gauges of this month’s manufacturing activity in the U.S. and euro area are due Thursday, while American data on May’s new home sales and weekly jobless claims are also scheduled. Central banks in Norway and Ukraine have policy reviews, with the latter expected to lower its benchmark rate by a percentage point to 17 percent.

Currencies

The pound rose as high as $1.4844, its strongest level since Dec. 31. The Bloomberg British Pound Index, which tracks sterling against a basket of peers, gained 0.5 percent as of 1:39 p.m. Tokyo time.

The currency has strengthened more than 3 percent versus the dollar this week as speculation mounted that Britons will vote to stay in the EU. The chance of a Brexit, as determined by bookmakers’ odds, has fallen from more than 40 percent over the past week following the murder of a pro-EU lawmaker in the U.K.

“Even though it looks as though much of the ‘risk of Brexit’ has been priced out of markets, there remains plenty of scope for volatility on either outcome, albeit very much more on a ‘Leave’ than ‘Remain,’” Ray Attrill, global co-head of foreign-exchange strategy in Sydney at National Bank Australia Ltd., wrote in a note, citing polls that continue to suggest the two sides running “almost neck and neck.”

The euro strengthened 0.4 percent, while the Hungarian forint and Norwegian krone gained 0.6 percent. Mexico’s peso appreciated 0.5 percent and Malaysia’s ringgit led gains in Asia with a 0.3 percent advance. Taiwan’s dollar rose to its strongest level since August after overseas investors pumped $2.4 billion into the island’s stocks this month.

The yen slid 0.2 percent against the dollar and weakened for a fifth day versus the euro, its longest losing streak since March.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent, rising for the fourth time in a week as mining and consumer-discretionary stocks led gains. Japan’s Topix rose 0.8 percent as the yen’s retreat gave a lift to exporters, while benchmarks declined in China, South Korea and Taiwan.

“Anybody who is predicting this with a high degree of certainty is delusional,” Bill Fitzpatrick, portfolio manager at Manulife Asset Management, which oversees $325 billion in Lake Forest, Illinois, told Bloomberg Radio. “There’s plenty of room for risk assets to move higher, but I would wait.”

Sharp Corp. jumped as much as 8.8 percent in Tokyo after Japanese media reported that the company may cut jobs to reduce costs and will start shipping organic light-emitting diode, or OLED, panels next year. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. climbed more than 5 percent in Sydney after the fourth-biggest iron-ore supplier said it will make a $500 million early repayment of a loan. Hyundai Merchant Marine Co. surged 29 percent in Seoul after South Korea’s second-biggest container line said it is in talks to join the world’s largest shipping alliance.Futures on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index were little changed, after the benchmark ended the last session at a two-week high. S&P 500 contracts added 0.5 percent.

Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.7 percent to $49.45 a barrel after the U.S. reported the lowest weekly output since September 2014 and a decline in its inventories.

Gold traded near a two-week low, having retreated 2.5 percent over the last three days. Nickel and tin dropped 0.6 percent in London, while copper was little changed near a six-week high.

Bonds

Australia’s 10-year bonds fell for a fifth day, lifting their yield by three basis points to 2.25 percent. The rate on similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries increased by one basis point to 1.70 percent, after sliding to the lowest level since 2012 last week amid a slew of opinion polls that put the “Leave” camp in front in Britain’s EU membership vote. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

To be honest, its a complete gamble today. I presume that there will be exit polls which might give some clue as to the way the vote is going, but technical analysis is pretty redundant today. However, we do have support at the daily pivot 6282, and resistance to start with at 6317 but mostly it will be traders staying on the sidelines, or taking a position based on a guess of the likely result. Its fair to say that the majority have been betting on remain winning, hence the rise from 5900. All things being equal, I’ll probably go for a dip from 6317 to the pivot then a rise towards the top of the 10 day Bianca at 6393 for today but do please bear in mind that its sentiment driven (and poll driven). Today and tomorrow are good days to sit on your hands or go small stakes, or use binaries.