FTSE 100 Support 6601 6581 6568 6555 6536 6452 6355
FTSE 100 Resistance 6626 6663 6670 6720

Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. Good results for British sport with Andy Murray winning Wimbledon and Lewis Hamilton the British Grand Prix. A much improved NFP figure last Friday as well, especially compared to the previous month, of 287k, saw the S&P climb to almost a record close, and the FTSE exceed 6600. The big thing to look for this week will be the Fed and possible inference for interest rate rises in the US. Global concerns might well keep them as they are.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks jumped by the most since March and South Korea’s won surged as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data and improving prospects for stimulus in Japan brightened the outlook for global economic growth. Gold and nickel rose, while oil declined.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to a one-month high as U.S. equity index futures advanced. Japanese shares rallied the most in four months and the yen weakened after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling coalition won an election, a fresh mandate for him to press ahead with stimulus. The Korean won strengthened by the most in a month. Gold and silver were near two-year highs, while nickel led gains among industrial metals. Crude fell toward $45 a barrel after a report showed American producers are activating more rigs.

The S&P 500 Index flirted with a record close on Friday as a 287,000-worker increase in nonfarm payrolls indicated the U.S. economy was on a stronger footing than the previous month’s figure had conveyed. The data led to only a modest pickup in expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year and helped stabilize investor confidence after the U.K.’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union triggered wild swings in financial markets.

“The U.S. economy is fine but the outlook for the rest of the world is holding them back from raising rates,” said Mark Matthews, Singapore-based head of Asia research at Bank of Julius Baer. “Abe can do much meaningful fiscal stimulus. The next step is to step up fiscal stimulus in Japan, which could be as simple as writing a check to every household.”

China’s consumer prices gained last month at the slowest pace since January, while factory-gate deflation continued to ease, data showed Sunday. Japan reported a decline in machinery orders on Monday, bolstering the case for more measures to revive Asia’s second-biggest economy. Euro-area finance ministers are due to hold talks in Brussels and Alcoa Inc. is scheduled to kick off the second-quarter earnings season in the U.S.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 2.4 percent as of 1:22 p.m. Tokyo time, with Japan’s Topix index surging 3.7 percent in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent after the benchmark ended Friday just shy of its highest close on record.

“U.S. shares reflected the positive outcome from the payrolls report, and Japanese shares will continue that flow,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief global strategist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center. “Abe said he’ll continue to put together his economic-policy package, so that optimism is going to continue to support Japanese shares.”

Nintendo Co. soared 22 percent in Tokyo as its new Pokemon Go game tops smartphone app rankings. Panasonic Corp. jumped 8.2 percent after Volkswagen AG was said to be considering partnering electric-car battery specialists such as Panasonic. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world’s largest contract maker of microchips, climbed to a record before it reports June sales data on Monday.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose by the most this month and the Shanghai Composite Index built on its first back-to-back weekly gains since April. China’s hedge fund managers are turning bullish on stocks with about 76 percent planning to boost stock holdings this month, up from 50 percent in June, according to surveys by Shenzhen Rongzhi Investment Consultant Co.

The Jakarta Composite Index climbed to a 13-month high as Indonesian markets resumed trading after a week-long holiday.

Currencies

The yen slipped 0.4 percent to 100.92 per dollar, after posting a weekly gain of 1.9 percent. A win for Abe’s ruling coalition in upper-house elections at the weekend will help the premier press ahead with stimulus and on Sunday he reiterated a pledge to take action. The Bank of Japan is set to announce an expansion of its monthly bond and equity purchases on July 29 and Abe will probably introduce fiscal stimulus by year-end, according to Macquarie Bank Ltd.

The won was the biggest gainer among major currencies, strengthening 1.4 percent as the U.S. jobs report spurred demand for emerging-market assets and boosted the outlook for Korean exporters. Malaysia’s ringgit climbed 1.3 percent.

The Australian dollar was little changed near a two-week high. After a week of political limbo, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull claimed victory in Australia’s July 2 election, though it remains unclear whether his coalition has enough seats to form a majority government. Neighboring New Zealand’s dollar weakened 0.3 percent following a two-day surge of more than 2 percent.

Commodities

The Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.7 percent, after a 3.7 percent weekly loss that marked its steepest slide since January.
Gold rose 0.1 percent, headed for its highest close since March 2014, and silver advanced 1.4 percent. Aluminum was set for its best close since April in London, while nickel and zinc advanced to one-week highs. Corn gained 1.3 percent, rallying for the third day in a row in Chicago since entering a bear market on Wednesday.

Commodities are poised to strengthen in the second half and through 2017 as spending cuts restrain supply and demand continues to grow at a moderate pace, according to Citigroup Inc. The bank is “especially bullish” for next year as inventory reductions become more pronounced, analysts led by Ed Morse said in an e-mailed note received Monday.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7 percent to $45.10 a barrel, after tumbling 7.3 percent last week. Crude resumed losses after data from Baker Hughes Inc. showed U.S. drillers boosted the number of rigs targeting oil to the highest in 12 weeks.

“When those rig numbers are up, we will see weakness in the oil price because it will bring on new supply,” said David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets in Sydney. “Anything where it shows that supply is potentially able to come back on-stream will cause constant problems.”

Bonds

U.S. Treasuries due in a decade fell, lifting their yield by one basis point to 1.37 percent. Similar-maturity debt in Japan yielded minus 0.285 percent, after the rate touched an all-time low of minus 0.30 percent on Friday.

Japan’s biggest bond bulls say the plunge in yields below zero in Tokyo foreshadows record-breaking gains for U.S. Treasuries. Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management says U.S. 10-year yields will drop to 1 percent as soon as this month, having touched an unprecedented 1.32 percent last week. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management says it’s likely in 2017, and Mizuho Asset Management predicts the figure may go even lower. “Welcome to the world of Japanification,” said Hideo Shimomura, the chief fund investor at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai in Tokyo, which oversees about $119 billion. “One percent is inevitable.”

Futures put the odds of a Fed rate increase this year at 21 percent, up from 12 percent before Friday’s payrolls figures. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

I think we might well see a bit of a bull Monday yet again today. The bulls have managed to hold it above 6600 for the time being, and the threat of further stimulus in Japan has helped achieve some new highs in the S&P and a bullish Asian session. The ASX200 trended up for most of the day so we may well do the same, especially if we don’t get an initial dip off the 6626 R1 level.

The 30min chart is bullish to start with, showing support at 6601 and 6581, so if we do dip, these are good long levels, with the 2 hour chart showing a decent long entry at 6555 if it were to dip that much. Not sure it will though, but watch for it in case.

Daily channels are still bullish, with the Bianca tops at 6837 for the 20 day and 6936 for the 10 day – both been turbo charged since the vote result to leave the EU. So, again, fairly simple plan really, long around 6595 and short 6660. Markets are certainly keeping us on our toes!