FTSE 100 Support 6795 6785 6769 6725 6716
FTSE 100 Resistance 6819 6838 6846 6872 6878 6895

Good morning. Well we got a dip and rise just not quite how I was expecting. The FTSE had another jittery morning, and broke below the 6800 level – opening the way for a test of 6725 in due course – before the US saved the day to a certain extent with better than expected data which saw a bounce back to 6825 in the late afternoon. This week has mostly been sentiment driven on the FTSE rather than anything technical which always makes it a little trickier. Sometimes the adage – if in doubt stay out is the right thing to do. Bit strange how gold dropped in line with the FTSE so there wasn’t a flight to safety or anything – which worked well for the gold short from 1337.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg

Asian stocks dropped by the most in two weeks and U.S. equity index futures declined as oil traded below $45 a barrel before major producers meet to discuss output constraints in Algiers. The dollar strengthened versus most peers.

Japanese shares led losses in the region as most of the Topix index’s member stocks began trading without the right to a dividend. Crude fluctuated, after sinking 2.7 percent in the last session as speculation faded that a deal will be struck at Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. A gauge of the greenback’s strength rose from a two-week low ahead of U.S. data on durable goods orders, while sovereign bonds advanced in Japan and New Zealand.

Crude prices, a key determinant of global stock moves this year, have been whipsawed over the past week as prospects for an accord swung to and fro. Saudi Arabia and Iranhave said there’s little chance of an agreement being reached in the Algerian capital, while leaving open the possibility of a deal when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries next meets in November. An output freeze was first proposed in February and the International Energy Agency sees a global oil glut persisting until late 2017.

“OPEC members are peddling their self interests, and while that’s the case, there can’t be a cooperative effort,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets. “There is little possibility of that coming together. Oil is trapped between $40 and $50 a barrel, and at this stage, there doesn’t appear to be anything on the horizon to break prices out of that range.”

U.S. data on Wednesday are forecast to show durable goods orders fell in August for the third time in four months, while gauges of consumer confidence in France, Germany and Italy are also due. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at a conference in London and Federal Reserve Janet Yellen will testify before U.S. lawmakers. Taiwan’s markets were shut for a second day owing to a hurricane.

Stocks

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.9 percent as of 1:40 p.m. Tokyo time, set for the biggest loss in two weeks. The Topix fell 1.7 percent as some 1,095 stocks on the gauge went ex-dividend.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.6 percent. Postal Savings Bank of China Co. edged up 0.2 percent as it made its trading debut following the world’s biggest first-time share sale of the year.

Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.2 percent after the underlying index gained 0.6 percent on Tuesday, led higher by technology and consumer stocks. Sentiment improved in the last session as a report showed American consumer confidence rose to the highest level since 2007 and shares of Deutsche Bank AG stabilized following their slump to a record low.

Commodities

Crude oil was little changed at $44.68 a barrel in New York, having posted moves of more than 2 percent for each of the last five days. Prices steadied after industry data indicated U.S. supplies fell by 752,000 barrels last week. The OPEC meeting in Algiers, which is also being attended by Russia, is due to start at 3 p.m. local time.

Gold declined 0.1 percent following a 0.8 percent drop in the last session that marked its steepest slide this month. Copper rose 0.3 percent in London, rebounding from its biggest loss in a month.

Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent, gaining for the first time this week. The lineup of Fed officials due to speak Wednesday includes Loretta Mester and Esther George, both of whom voted in favor of an interest-rate increase at last week’s policy meeting. The U.S. central bank refrained from hiking borrowing costs on Sept. 21 and futures prices reflect coin-toss odds of an increase by December, down from 61 percent a week ago. “The market is waiting on fresh direction, potentially from some Fed speakers tonight,” said David Forrester, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Agricole SA’s corporate and investment-banking unit in Hong Kong. “The dollar is likely to be subject to some temporary downside risk ahead of the U.S. presidential election and will be especially dependent on the opinion polls.”

New Zealand’s dollar weakened 0.4 percent versus the greenback, the biggest loss among 16 major currencies. The ringgit fell toward a one-week low as Tuesday’s drop in oil prices worsened prospects for Malaysia, Asia’s only major net exporter of crude.

Bonds

Japanese sovereign bonds climbed, pushing the two-, five- and 10-year yields to their lowest levels in more than a month. The Bank of Japan bought debt with maturities of more than a decade for the first time since adopting yield curve control as the focus of its monetary stimulus a week ago.

U.S. Treasuries due in a decade were little changed, keeping their yield near a three-week low at 1.56 percent. Similar-maturity government bonds in New Zealand rose for a sixth day, pushing their yield down by two basis points to 2.34 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction

For today we have initial daily support at 6795 from the 10 day Bianca. If that holds then i can see a rise to 6875 where we have the 2 hour coral line, and also R1 at 6872, presuming the bulls can break the pivot at 6819 first. If however the 6795 breaks and we get a similar pattern to Monday and Tuesday this week, then a decline to 6725 looks likely. We do have some 10 day Raff support at 6785 as well, so watch this area for any possible break. It maybe that after 2 days of trending down for most of the day, we see a bit of a relief rally today, but to start with he 30min chart is bearish with 6811 resistance. If the bulls push through this first thing then we might just rise from the off, in stark contrast to the first 2 days this week! Either way I am thinking that we will see 6872 today.