13th March 2017
FTSE 100 Support 7347 7328 7323 7321 7282 7275 7235
FTSE 100 Resistance 7381 7399 7419 7425 7439 7440
Good morning, hope you had a good weekend. Bulls fought back just after the bell on Friday to regain some ground from the 7336 area just after the market closed, with the 30min 200ema at that level holding as support. That move kept the FTSE 100 looking pretty strong, especially as oil bounced back a bit from Thursdays lows.
Most of the weekend news was dominated by Brexit and when Article 50 is going to be triggered – probably this week. Also probably this week will see an interest rate rise in the USA. We have a week central bank policy decisions from Japan to the U.S. NFP was slightly ahead of expectations, and interest rates are more likely to rise if their economy is doing well.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
Bear in mind that the bull Monday, bear Tuesday pattern has been playing out pretty well the past few months and as we have resistance initially at 7374 and 7381, with support at 7321 I think we might well get an initial dip down to this level from the 7380 area. If the bulls were able to push above that though then 7399 is the next area of resistance that might see some stutters. Generally speaking the market looks pretty strong at the moment, with Friday being pretty positive with the NFP news.
Support wise below 7321 we have 7275 for the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels and the 10 day Rafff at 7267. The bears would be buoyed by the break of 7300 and might well have the strength to drive it lower than these supports though, with 7230 and 7170 on the cards. Whilst I say that the FTSE 100 has been strong, its mostly been helped by the GBPUSD rate which underpins the profits of most of the FTSE 100 companies. There have also been a fair few take over approaches by US companies of some of them, while the exchange rate is favourable for them.
So for today, I am thinking that we will get slightly bearish day to dip down to test the 7321 level. It might be a fairly slow decline though (famous last words), and it will be interesting to see if the bulls defend that level if it is tested. If it holds then the US might well drag us back up later but 7380 are is looking like decent resistance to start with.