4th May 2017
Good morning. The 7220 level held well yesterday as that was our 2 hour support mentioned yesterday. Got the decline as expected but unfortunately from just below the 7250 level so our short order just missed – bit annoying! Below the 7220 then 7198 looked pretty inevitable, and probably lower. The bulls took a while to get going from that level though, and overnight have managed to bring the FTSE 100 up to 7255. That is despite a weaker Asia session again, and also a fairly bearish ASX200. So this rise could well just be algo’s going on a stop hunt.
A U.S. report Wednesday showed private payroll gains slowed in April, ahead of Friday’s key official employment report amid concern around the U.S. economy’s tepid start to the year. The next hurdle for investors to clear is Sunday’s French presidential election.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we will build on the rise from 7220 and get a further rise to 7285 where we have a fairly key looking fib level. This is also just above R2 for today, which stands at 7277.
Looking at the daily chart there is a load of key resistance at 7357 so this is starting to look like a decent swing short area, though I don’t think we will see that level today.
US ADP news yesterday was fairly positive which bodes well for NFP tomorrow, coming in slightly above estimates.
Support wise, we have 7230/7220 again, then 7190 below that. The momentum is with the bulls at the moment though, so I am thinking that we will get an initial rise, to probably reach that 7285 level. If the bears were really to go for it then a break of the 7220 level will likely upset the bullish momentum.
That said the ASX200 (Australia) was fairly bearish today, and gold continued to fall, breaking below the key 1250 level yesterday. So, it will be key for the bulls to be quick out the blocks first thing.