30th June 2017
That was quite a drop yesterday of over 100 points to 7305. I was out all day yesterday so only sporadically watching and was quite surprised when I saw the 7352 long had taken! Turned into a decent knife catch as it rose up to the 7380 level before dropping back to 7305. Some bulls appeared though but its looking like we might test slightly below that and I am looking for 7279 soon. Shorting the rallies has definitely been the right stance for this week – sorry I was like a broken record repeating that every day! At least the 10 day Raff channel support held at 7307 anyway – always a good daily channel to watch that one. Cable above 130 again now, so good for the FTSE bears, not so good for the bulls that wanted 7650!
Asian equity markets slid after a selloff in U.S. stocks reawakened volatility as the quarter draws to a close. The dollar extended losses with bonds as central banks worldwide shift toward a more hawkish tone.
U.S. inflation remains in focus Friday with the core PCE deflator, a favorite Fed measure. Analysts expect the month-over-month number eased to 0.1% for May and the annual rate slowed to 1.4%. Personal income and spending are also expected to grow more slowly than the 0.4% rise in April.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am looking at resistance at XXXX where we have resistance on the 2 hour chart. This is looking decidedly bearish now after that drop yesterday, though has in fact been showing a bearish trend since Tuesday – hence my constant repeat of “sell the rallies” this week. Like a broken record! Above this resistance level then xxxx is the top of the 10 day Raff but with the current backdrop it might struggle to reach that level (it might struggle to reach xxxx today too!).
So, as its still bearish, that leads me onto the next level I am looking at which is support at xxxx – this is showing as fairly key as daily, weekly and monthly support. If the bears break then 7100 is pretty possible in fairly short order. The bottom of the 10 day Raff for today is xxxx, and the 20 day is slightly below that at xxxx. With the bounce from the 7305 low, we are just above the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels for today, support from them at 7327 and 7338. Could well be a dead cat bounce though.
Bulls will need to be quick out the blocks though there is initial resistance on the 30min at xxxx and then the daily pivot at 7366. ASX200 was down today, cable is up, and its a freaky Friday, so stay nimble again! Volatility is firmly back so watch the levels closely – if a key level breaks, then cut and run or reverse position!
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