6th July 2017
That was a great Dax trade yesterday managing to catch the low and get a good ride up to nearly the 12500 level. The SP managed some points but struggled for the bulls, but having declined did mange a bounce from the 2421 level. The big news yesterday was the Fed minutes in the evening, which showed a split opinion on the future plans.
Minutes from the Fed’s most recent meeting showed a lack of consensus about when to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet and how to approach policy strategy in a time of low inflation. The officials continued to view gradual interest-rate increases as appropriate, while starting the process of unwinding their $4.5 trillion balance sheet this year.
The FTSE 100 failed to break 7385 yet again, dropping off a couple of times. There is still resistance at 7405 above this though. The 2 hour chart is still bullish, with support at 7350 for today.
Geopolitical risk remains on investors’ minds as Kim Jong Un’s test of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the U.S. mainland sparked an emergency meeting at the United Nations Security Council. Despite brief flurries of risk aversion, money managers aren’t showing signs of undue worry in reaction to North Korea’s provocations.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I think that we might well try and push above that 7385 resistance level that has been resistance for the whole of this week. The FTSE 100 held up surprisingly well yesterday and probably would have pushed higher were it not for a drop in oil and a rise in cable. Both of these tend to move the FTSE pretty well.
For today therefore I am watching the XXXX level, but also the 10 day Raff at 7410, R2 at 7415 and the fib pivot level at XXXX. With this cluster of resistance levels around here this area is worth a short. If the bulls were to break above XXXX then XXXX is the next area of resistance.
On the support side of things we have a bullish 2 hour chart still, with support from a moving average at 7350 and the coral at XXXX. This area is worth watching and longing from, but a break of this will likely lead to 7300 or lower.
The ASX200 had a dip and rise day and has some daily support now at 5747 – so might see a bit more bullishness from this over the next few sessions. Something to bear in mind for the FTSE as well (ftse and ASX are quite closely correlated being commodity heavy), as we may get a push up towards the 7600 area again. Before a larger move down possibly!
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