7th April 2017
Good morning. The U.S. launched a cruise missile attack against Syria after accusing Bashar al-Assad’s regime of using poison gas to kill scores of civilians, an act that drew international condemnation and that President Donald Trump called “‘an affront to humanity.” Markets reacted as you would expect with equities dropping and gold climbing, and of course we also have NFP later today at 13:30. Forecast is 180k versus 235k previously. If the Syria situation escalates into a full blown conflict then we will probably see Gold at the $1500 level fairly soon, as well as the 6500 on the FTSE 100!
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am watching 7329 for resistance where we have the 25ema on the daily chart. This is the first time this has been bearish since it went to a bullish state on the 7th December 2016. For support I am watching 7250. We have bounced off that a few times over the past few weeks, and if it breaks then we are likely to get a drop down to 7200 and lower in fairly short order. Which is probably why its being so heavily defended by the algo’s!
With the news of the missile strike already affecting the markets at 2am, we might see a bit of an initial rise on the FTSE 100 towards the 7329 resistance area. If we go above this then 7347 is the next area of note where we have a key fib level and is half way between R1 and R2. Should the bulls really go for it then the top of the Bianca channels are at 7368 and 7378. If NFP is considerably better than forecast then we might well pop higher.
I am thinking we will have a bit of buy the rumour sell the news as its NFP today. But please bear in mind that it will also be a bit of a freaky Friday – lower stakes are often a good plan so as not to undo all the profits from the week.
So simply watching to see if we get a rise to 7328 this morning, and also if we test 7250 again, if it breaks then its a short…