21st September 2017
Certainly got a “but the rumour, sell the news” pattern yesterday as we heard from the Fed that as expected rates will be going up before the end of the year and reversal of QE will begin. A more hawkish tone saw the US markets drop from the 2508 S&P to 2495 but then bounced back above 2500 to remain there overnight. The Fed’s projections point to 3 rate hikes in 2018, 2 in 2019 & 1 in 2020. They remain unchanged for now.
The FTSE100 managed to climb towards the 7300 area but has since dropped back, weighed down by a weaker ASX200 (also commodity heavy) which was rattled by a potential upset in this weekends New Zealand election. 7240 now looks crucial for the FTSE100 bulls to hold if they are going to push above the 7300 level.
FTSE 100 Outlook and Prediction
For today I am thinking that we will get a dip and rise, probably hitting the support area around 7230/7240 and then another try to break the 7300 level. The UK market will be looking to work out the BoE’s timeline for rate rises here and how likely we are to get one around November time, following on from the hawkish Fed stance.
If the bulls were able to push above last night’s high at 7296 then a rise towards 7325 looks possible but there is some resistance here that may see the rise stutter. Worth aa short around this level with a fairly tight stop in case the bears can take it back below the 7300 level. With the market rising and holding above 7267 then it looks a bit more bullish for the moment, and the 2 hour chart is still showing rising support, 7240 for today.
We do have the top of the 10 day Bainca channel at 7306 though which may get in the way initially for the bulls if they do manage to push above last nights high. The bigger hurdle for the bulls will be pushing above 7360 though as we have daily resistance here from the 25ema and just above the 10 day Raff channel.
We have Draghi speaking at 14:30 later which may trigger some volatility, depending on what he says.
With the US markets fighting back from their Fed driven dip last night, I think we will get an initial drop and then a rise, as long at 7240 area holds as support.
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