Good morning. Hope you had a good weekend. That was quite a sell off on Friday from the 6685 level that we rose to first thing, the main reason for the sell off was that once again I was doing a seminar that day. Seems that every time I do a seminar the market drops that day (bear that in mind!). The ASX200 Australia had a family positive session today so we may well see the same today and have a little bit of a bouche from the 6550 area as we have the 10 day Bianca support here, as well as the bottom of the 20 day Raff. That said, the moving averages are bearish to start with on the 10min and 30min, so the bulls will need to be quick out the blocks to make that happen.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst week since January, as investors awaited data on China amid a selloff in commodities.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 141.95 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after the Dow slumped 2.9 percent last week. China reports on industrial company profits Monday, providing further clues on the slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. Gold is trading near a five-year low and oil is in a bear market amid concern raw material supplies are outpacing demand. In the U.S., data are due on durable and capital goods orders, with investors looking to this week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve to gauge the timing for higher interest rates.
“Share markets are likely to remain volatile as we are still going through a seasonally weak period of the year for shares,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based global strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which oversees A$160.5 billion ($117 billion). “Uncertainties remain regarding Chinese economic growth and a likely Fed interest rate hike lies ahead for later this year.”
Japan’s Topix index fell 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.4 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sank 0.7 percent in most recent trading, with contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of mainland Chinese stocks listed in the city, down 1.1 percent. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index, which tracks the largest Chinese companies, lost 0.8 percent and CSI 300 Index contracts declined 3 percent in Friday trade.
S&P 500 e-mini futures were little changed on Monday. The underlying equity gauge lost 1.1 percent on Friday. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook
We are on 2 daily supports at the 6550 area, the 10 day Bianca and the 20 day Raff so we may see a bounce from here, firstly towards the daily pivot at 6592, then the 200ema area at 6660. As such I think an initial long will be a decent play, especially if we follow the ASX’s lead which has had a fairly bullish session. After Friday’s sell off I wouldn’t be surprised if the bears take a bit of a breather as the Dax and S&P are also near the bottom of the daily Bianca channels. Unfortunately the bears managed to break through that 2100 S&P level in the end, though it put up a brave fight on Thursday night with a bounce to 2110. Back to the FTSE and if the 6550 level breaks first thing then the next supports to watch for are 6526 where we have a Fib and a PRT line, then 6457 for a daily PRT line, with 6432 below that for 30min support. Certainly going to be an interesting open to see who goes for it first – bulls or bears.
Morning all.
That looked like a bit of left over liquidation selling on the DAX at the opening, gave a nice long entry at 6540. Big stick out of neck here: lows of the day?
Covered another 1/3 of short and scalp longed, first target to break and hold 58/62 then morning’s high of 88.
Went long earlier at 6552 and got stopped but trying again now. Long on S&P at 2080 as well. Bit of a funny morning
Yeah I must admit I was looking for the DAX to bounce to 11250+ by now if that was just legacy selling. That’s where the weakness is coming from imo.
Temporarily failed again at 68, but still cautiously bullish. Well, not bullish but I think there’s some upside to come. If we can go into DOW opening 6560+ I think they’ve got some room for a bounce too.
Don’t expect 88 to provide too much resistance per se, but we’re getting a little over cooked in the 80’s, so taking out 1/2 the long now for a juicy +40 and the rest on a stab at the high.
Nice little uptrend line around 70 and rising to replace on.
Nice bounce off the trendline for another attempt at 88, longed again at 76 stop 72 (lower low, trend broken).
Next stop 6611, Nick’s resistance, if we get through 90/92 convincingly.
Momentum and uptrend lost, out of long for 5 and a spec short @ 82 , stop 94.
took 15, it really needs to hold 62 ish imo or long is not the place to be, especially if the DAX makes new lows..
New DAX lows and 62 gone like a knife through butter, As ZZ says, 40 next stop?
Probably worth a long, depending how fast it gets there.
And long at 40 10 either way
Out for nowt, bored with that.
Looking for a break of 30 or 50.
Long?
Went short at 6565 !
Opening 30-minute candle was a doji which might suggest we stay stuck in this range for a while. Indecisive morning at the moment.
Looking for a drop back to 67/68 on the 10-11am candle
67/68 hit – out by 4 mins on the timing. Possibility of a drop back to the 40s. Going to watch now.
I’m long for 6615 and short for 6567. If we see 6615 first then I’ll add to the short, once it’s clear the rebound may have run out of steam.
Unless we can break the morning high by 12 noon I think it’s unlikely we’ll see the 6600s today. Likewise if we can hold the range low this afternoon it may form a base this afternoon to perhaps tackle 6600s tomorrow. Not ruling out lower lows …
message to tmfp
i have been a passive watcher on this site.
you seem to have the largest number of successful trades as per what you post.
curious to know
1. Do you actually trade what you post ? or are you just posting for the sake of it! ego trip maybe ?
2. your posts all seem to be ” after the event ”
3 you have a very high proportion of ” Exact to the tick” entries and exits
how about posting “what your expected trade entries ” are BEFORE the price gets there, this would be helpful for me to get an entry.
or post the reason for your trades
tmfp, ever thought about being a followed trader on Ayondo? You get commission for every trader who copies your trades. Looks like you have one already.
Not really Dan, but thanks for the suggestion.
I only started on here because I was/am interested in Nick’s system and bored with only the cat for company 10 hours a day.
I try not to be irritating and hope that my experience can be of help to the young guns.
While Nick’s cool with it, I’ll stick around and try not to either over trade or over post.
🙂
Hi pjones
It’s all an ego trip mate, the hospital kindly let me have a specially designed straight jacket with one finger free so I can post on here. Stops me attacking the nurses….
🙂
Actually, I’m very aware of what you’re saying, I try to post in real time what I do, sometimes it’s a bit frantic, sometimes the forum lags.
Most of my trades are RSI extreme based, which means that I quite often sell near the top and buy near the bottom, temporary though they may be.
As for expectations, my first post today was about as close as I get to attempting to see the future. Or have a look at my late post yesterday, recommending to buy early weakness.
I react to what’s going on, rather than have a rigid game plan to stick to, as you can see from that series of posts earlier where I rather abruptly gave up the long side because of what I saw as a top forming, momentum going and trendline breaking.
Fair questions, Good luck.
Morning All,
Internet issues making me very distracted.
FTSE – 6541
Let’s see what happens here – Chart Support – S1 – FIB -Pivs etc.
Stops 6535
FTSE 6543
There really does seem to be a lack of buyers on the FTSE. Any strength, albeit 5 points is immediately put to rest.
Not very inspiring.
A Close above 6547 and then 6452 would suggest a change in trend.
** Typo** above 6547 and then 6552 ..would suggest a change in trend.
ZZ – Are you still looking at your GAP stuff ?
Yeah – only really good one was down to 6567/68 this morning which worked a treat. I’m neutral now. If we see 6480 today I may try a buy for up to 6615. I’ve still got my tiny long from 6600 and will wait patiently for 6615! It’s looking too weak at the moment and I’m 90% certain we won’t see 6600 today.
Small long at 35 – stop at 25.
good divergence on the rsi and tsi suggesting a bounce is due
not to be atm – out for nowt
China
It’s looking weak today again !!
there’s no rally with the build up to the us open, and the dollar is weaker too
Meltdown Monday on the cards?
The press put this weakness down to the realisation that Greece is still not sorted, surprise, surprise.
There’s nothing that I can see technically until 6420 really. We’re not even particularly oversold.
See what the Yanks think in minute…
I think I’ll have a little spec short at 30, 10 either way.
They didn’t kick that Greek tin can far enough either
took 15 looking to long at 10 just for a bounce
In and out of the market again this morning. Bought at 6513, sold at 6518. Profit albeit a virtual one 🙂 Sold just before it rose to 6530 and then sunk….ugggh could’ve held on for a little longer 🙁
As a matter of interest Greg, what was your motivation/chart signal/whatever for buying at 13?
Also, what platform are you using? It’s just that, using IG prices, I’m struggling to find when you could have sold at 18 prior to a rise to 30?
possible trend line support here. Small long at 08 exit 27.
nope and out
long at 02
out at 20
Nice one ZZ, I was half tempted but got dazzled by the 64 prefix, wanted more more more 🙂
I was after 27 but took profit when it started to turn. Will 492 be a floor?
I don’t see much technical reason myself, I think 92 was just as far as it could manage today.
But then I am Mr. Perma-Bear 🙂
It’s that 15 min candle at 15.30 that managed 20 points that makes me wonder whether we may have reached a temporary floor. But then reversal attempts often fail the first go. Same again tomorrow – initial rise followed by a drop? Need to be careful we don’t get a one direction up day though.
If we do have an up day, I’ll treat it as an ideal opportunity to re-instate the balance of my Master Plan short, starting around 6580. 🙂
We haven’t had 6 days down in a row since December 2014 and that was a meaningful bottom.
Time for a short again @19 12 pt stop
Frightening I know !
I’ve got a trend change signal – Long – 5 min 6519 chart Stp <6508.
Will probably be short lived but you can never tell on the right hand side
of the chart….
No, you’re probably right Hugh, there’s a few shorts to be covered and a bit of bargain buying about, I’m stop to b/e on it, 30% chance of a closing melt.
30% chance …
You doing binaries as well now ??
Nah, just sounds like I know what I’m talking about 🙂
Here comes the melt added at 12
Holding up reasonably well, think I’ll run the shorts for a little after the close, has been relatively weak recently then.
Nice one tmpf – Tuna for tea !
And out for av 10.
DOW’s flipped again – Dwn
FTSE Flipped again – Dwn
So tomorrow a bit of data UK GDP Data and several things in the US.
Then on Wednesday US Fed Rate Decision.
They’re in a difficult situation with China being the way it is.
I’d have thought they don’t want to commit to anything until they see how things are going to pan out – even stretch it out for another quarter.
Looks like we are heading for a great move up to 6591
Gone long 6505
tmfp , hugh , zz – any opinion
Looks like a good target / trade – 50 EMA on the hourly ?? Stops in about 6491?
Go for it mate, if it gets up there I’ll happily sell it.
Tomorrow’s an important day for the bulls I reckon. After today’s debacle, they’re going to have to put up or shut up, or else 6300’s are entirely possible this week.
Remember pj, you read it here first…
😉
Doesn’t feel like an intermediate bottom yet. Any attempts at a rise have been swiftly sold. It could get to the 6590s tomorrow, but it could equally bounce up to 6530-50 and then drop further into the 6400s. I’ve got one eye on 6300 next week, though I would expect a bigger bounce before that. Sorry – not that helpful. I certainly don’t have a definite buy the dip signal yet – though these never come at the bottom – only after a potential bottom has formed.
so looks like everybody is looking south
but looks like after getting to 6591 first, tommorow ! yes that will be fine
Hi tmfp. Sorry for the delay. I took a risk as I have done every morning for past 6 days, bought between 7.40-45am pre FTSE opening. £100 a point, I’m already £5-600 down before market opens but during first minute market has gone up sizeably enough to put me back in green and enough ‘profit’
Sorry mate, totally confused….you traded at 6513/6518 this morning on the FTSE @ 07.40?
Oh I’m using Barclays spread trading app btw
Sorry I was spread betting on UK 100 daily future on Barclays platform
Ok…what prices are they showing right now?
I bought at 6513 around 7.40ish and sold around 8 am at 6518
Sorry I’m offline until tomorrow. What time are you online tomorrow and I’ll confirm what I’m looking at? See if we are looking at the same thing! 🙂
Actually I’m looking on the app at daily futures spread at 21:11 hours and it’s sell 6450.2 and buy at 6458.2
Sorry 6452.2 sell
Looks like you’re trading one of the FTSE futures prices. Most people on this site are trading the prices that reflect the FTSE cash prices as closely as possible. Current price is 6505 (the price the market closed at, at 16:30.) Futures prices tend to be 50 points lower at the moment.
Hi ZiggerZagger yes that sounds about right!