Good morning I hope you had a good weekend. Well NFP Friday was rather wild wasn’t it – I really wasn’t expecting nearly 200 points off the 6055 level otherwise I wouldn’t have moved the stop to breakeven quite so quickly! well done those that emailed me and held for 6100 and higher. Following the poor jobs data the chances of rates rises this year diminished (as I have said all along, will be 2016 at the earliest) hence the rally in pretty much everything. For the moment the bulls are in charge.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian shares rose, with the regional benchmark index heading for its longest winning streak in almost three months, after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report reduced the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent to 126.92 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, advancing for a fourth day. U.S. employers added 142,000 jobs in September, less than the lowest estimate of 96 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, figures from the Labor Department showed Friday. The report increased the likelihood that near-zero interest rates will persist into next year, keeping in place the stimulus that has underpinned the world’s biggest economy.
“Throughout this year we’ve had moments when stocks rose on an increased probability of rate increases in the U.S., but at the end of last week the market saw the probable delay as a positive,” said Shoji Hirakawa, chief equity strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo.
E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.2 percent. The underlying measure jumped 1.4 percent on Friday, wiping out an earlier drop of as much as 1.6 percent in its biggest intraday rebound since October 2011.
Japan’s Topix index rose 0.9 percent, and South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.7 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index jumped 1.8 percent as commodity shares led gains. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index added 0.6 percent. Hong Kong’s equity market is yet to open, while those in mainland China remain closed for a holiday.
Participation Rate
The U.S. jobless rate held at 5.1 percent, and wage growth was little changed from the prior month. Joblessness remained low as people left the workforce, pushing the participation rate down to 62.4 percent, the lowest since October 1977.
The probability the Fed will move by its Dec. 15-16 meeting fell to 33 percent from 46 percent before the jobs data, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The odds for the January meeting slid below 50 percent.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.1 percent last week. The measure slumped 15 percent in the third quarter amid concern about China’s economic slowdown and confusion over the timing of the first U.S. interest-rate increase since 2006. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook
For the moment the trends are pretty firmly up, and there is a chance the Dow will be testing 16600 soon – decent resistance level here if so. I have gone for an initial dip down to the 25ema line on the 30min chart where we have some decent support and also the bottom of the channel. At the moment everything looks pretty hopeful for a rise towards 6300. I have gone for an initial dip as we have some PRT resistance at the 6246 level on the daily charts and its also the overnight high. We have broken out above the Bianca channels (10 day top is 6207 so may get a back test of that level today) and are nearly at the top of the 20 day Raff at 6268 so look around here for resistance as well. All fairly simple in terms of the plan today – go long on any initial dip to 6220.
Morning all.
I’m usually pretty good at putting stuff behind me, but missing that complete retracement on Friday still rankles, especially as I posted the tweet suggesting it would happen and after banging on about buying weakness etc. Then trying to pick a top: not my finest moment. 🙁
Anyway here we are again, knocking on the 50% fib door for the fourth time around 6260 with a gap directly under us to 6175.
Daily 10 RSI is also back at previous highs, you have to go back to April for a convincing break of the 60 level.
All of which portends an possible explosive break out on the upside, much though it is against fundamental logic.
Very difficult to call, but looking to cautiously buy dips this morning, the ball is in DOW’s court later to consolidate its rally.
DAX is pale shadow of its former self, ~800 pts away from challenging similar retracement highs, could be worth an arbitrage buy/FTSE, covering the short should we break 6300.
Morning tmfp,well now everything’s ok again I’m long target 7120 :0)
I don’t know about “ok again” but it’s good to see a man with a plan. 🙂
Good Luck.
Longed that 6242 support, now b/e stop, expect it to break to 70ish this time.
and added a scalp at 50, 5 pt stop
took +6, just for Hugh 🙂
stop on balance to 46
It’s struggling a bit here, if 45 then 40 go, could be a bit messy.
Morning tmfp,heard an interview with Tom Dante yesterday where he said something like,if Mkts are there to promote Trading then we should expect them to do the thing that will promote the most buying and selling,thought that was interesting.
Do you think this will turn into a retest of the broken Bull Trend Line and then back down?
Not sure if naked short selling, Central Bank manipulation via money printing, trillion $ derivatives and HFT’s come under “trading” really, WSF…..
Long term I have no idea. If there was an Options market in “Complete Collapse of the Global Economic System” I’d be long calls, the problem being if it comes to pass then the profit won’t be worth anything anyway.
🙂
Exactly
Wouldnt disagree,to be honest the hypocrisy of the way they avoided doing what they prescribed to the populations of Russia/Eastern Europe and Asia during their Economic collapses offends me for personal reasons and I dont think anything around today should end well,dont expect it to either.
Morning All, typical when we were below 6000, articles came out suggesting testing lows 5700 soon etc etc, now we bounced up – articles out that “Go away in May” investors back now to buy and we will move up….hard to make sense or make an overall call at the moment. Looks bullish for today though.
Great calls by Nick this morning, thanks.
crazy as it may seem, i have gone short 6252 with a possible exit target at 6225
against the market , nick , tmfp , & anstel
all of you are probably holding for 6300 – so i have placed a stop at 6310
Brave not crazy Paul, all I’d say is that risk/reward of 58/27 is poor.
GL.
Ive closed my 6220 long at 6260. Seems to have stalled a bit here at the top of the 10min channel
Nick
Can you paste this chart
I just dont seem to be able to replicate your charts
where & how do you get a channel on 10 mins at 6260?
PaulHamley,
Just wanted to say – I would strongly recommend one of Nick’s Seminar – gives some information on Nick’s various strategies and chart set-ups.
mali7
so you have attended his seminar?
are you able to replicate some of Nicks arrows after attending his seminar? or is joining his live site imperative ?
any comments would be welcome.
I have been contemplating attending his seminars but…..!
Hi Paul, here is the chart from earlier http://prntscr.com/8o00n5
Good long shout that was Nick.
Any thoughts on this afternoon’s DOW?
yes i agree with you RR is the wrong way round
btw – brave – no, crazy – yes
You are right Paul from a point of view of logic and fundamentals,unfortunately it’s not logic we are dealing with its Russian Rullette Keep it small and be prepared to flip to whatever the market is doing at that moment. I think if you can take 3 or 4 points and get out and repeat its the answer,little and often scalping Otherwise for me it’s untradeable,best of luck.
Roulette,sorry typo,watching this lot like a hawk while I type!
There are two things you have to get your head around when scalping:
1) It’s not an excuse for overtrading. It’s taking advantage of very short term extremes and trends which may not happen very often e.g. >90 or <10 rsi's, bollinger breaches, breakouts etc.
2) Risk/reward is very important. Take 3 or 4 pt profits without matching stops and, sooner or later, it will end in tears.
Thanks tmfp I’m noting all your comments thanks and trying to make improvements.
Just went on Amazon looking for something to read and if anyone is interested John Piper the Business of Trading and The Harriman book of S/B rules are both free for Kindle at the moment,no idea if they are any good.
While it’s quiet, just a little trading aid you might find useful.
I don’t like cluttered charts. I draw a few trendlines and resistance levels but can’t be doing with clouds and different coloured lines everywhere.
For a technical overview in several time frames I have this page running all the time
http://www.investing.com/indices/uk-100-chart
I use it for a cash chart on whatever’s open, but if you look to the right, in between the ads, there’s a summary window, selectable for indices, of a basket of ma’s and indicators in 1min to weekly time frames, which is quite helpful to scroll through regularly.
tmfp
so is this the only charts you use?
or do you use your brokers chart?
any change of a cut & paste of your present chart ?
I have five screens going, nothing special, all free stuff (apart from the porn) j/k
Always pay for your porn
Finally got to 70 target, a bit overbought so just taking out long, would short into 75/80 if we get there without a pull back.
It looks to me that if the Dow can break 16600 we may get a further rise.?
As I said Friday, I virtually ignore the DOW until 14.30 because it’s only ghosting Europe till then.
A little long at 53
Out at 59 for a handful don’t know why, but don’t like it much
Better think about replacing the long around 60 I suppose
Morning All,
The big news this w/e is that I actually bought a newspaper!
Well actually it was free, so gave it a quick browse and learned absolutely
nothing! Origami practice….
Amazing what a small shift in sentiment makes !
Still digesting everything…
“I need a dollar dollar, a dollar is what I need
hey hey”
So US interest rates on hold for a while longer…
Dollar Down
– Euro Up ?
What ever happened to the parity call – 1:1
This would lift the Euro markets.
Correlation between Euro/USD and FTSE or am I just
misreading things ?
– Crude Up
Dollar weakness.
Not broken out though…
Higher Oil – not good for equities ?
Oil has come off yet this hasn’t been good for equities either!
No wonder it’s all a bit messy..
Anyone seen Porsche price BTW ?
2015 Hi 92 Euros
Curent 35 Euros
P/E : 3.64 !
Yield : 5/75%
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PAH3:GR
Hi Hugh, yeah Porsche lol, time for a toxic split.
Seen Glencore 105+ and going like a train? no wonder FTSE’s holding…
Glad you’re out of that short eh, Senu?
You gotta be wondering if your looking at a gift horse…
Or am I mistaken ??
No mate. I have stopped trading that 🙂
Turned round from earlier, now the DAX making new highs and the FTSE doesn’t want to know. Would have been a cracking 9 am arbitrage….
Anybody up for a big DOW sell off this afternoon?
Don’t know about a Sell off but the hourly chart just looks really “toppy” & extended against the 50 ema. (350 points above 50 ema so there’s plenty of scope there for a retracement.
So you reckon, it’s not the time to go long?
16650 is trend line resistance but it appears to have the bit between its teeth.
It could probably do another +200, but it won’t have broken previous high even if it does.
Still not convinced that we’re on our way to the moon just yet.
Santa rally seems a touch early this year lol :0)
If i remember rightly the Dow hit the 16900 area recently then collapsed maybe history will repeat itself ?
It needs to get there first. It’s another 300 points to go 🙂
Yes I know Jack but when did reality or sanity ever pertain to the markets lol,I reckon it’s going there.
I don’t fancy riding it up there but if it gets there I like the idea of a short Jack.
Yes it was the 17th September I remember the day but I can’t remember what news event caused it.
Yes I do it was an fomc statement.wouldnt surprise me if that’s the target area on the Dow as crazy as it sounds.
Everthing in buy, even the VW 😉
DOW’s not actually too impressive at the moment for me, that’s a fairly obvious target to smash through at 16650 and it’s not done it (yet).
I’ve been buy the dips recently, but they’ll have to be big ones from these levels and the bigger they get the more they look like failures.
The Bear is getting a bit peckish…..
Probably getting suckered, but short at 94 10 pt stop.
Those long tailed 2 min DOW candles seem to say that it’s going to bought to new highs pretty soon and will prob drag us with it, so out for a token +4
or an attempt anyway, short at 91 5 pt stop close on bell whichever first
out for +3 lol
Ah, gone long 70 on Dow, lost 40 points while in school. Now won 20 on double stake. Waste of time. Why did I even decided to go long on the top? Normally I went short. Now it got to break through and I am out, had enough.
BP news nicely timed for the close.
not much impact though
This DOW action is quite likely a deliberate HFT teaser, create a resistance level (16670) in a thin market, then break it and dump on the stop losses. Be careful about buying the upside breakout.
I’m off out, I think I’ll leave a sell at 6325, 20 pt stop, limit 6280.
Good luck all.
🙂
Oh yeah, who said it won’t go up? Here it does to 16750 on Dow. That’s a trend and EMA for you.