Good morning. A lot of people will be glad August is over which was the worst monthly performance for 4 years, but we are not home and dry yet by any means. Markets are still looking for clues for the Fed’s rate rises, while confidence has been knocked by China’s ability to keep powering on.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, extending the biggest monthly loss since May 2012, as regional shares followed U.S. equities lower and investors awaited reports on Chinese manufacturing.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.2 percent to 129.69 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.7 percent in most-recent trading after the U.S. benchmark slid 0.8 percent on Monday in New York. The official gauge of China’s manufacturing industry will fall to a three-year low in August, according to the median of economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg before data due Tuesday.
“We should see an extension of yesterday’s losses in the equity market, although how Chinese markets fare is anyone’s guess,” said Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief market strategist at IG Ltd. “The authorities want “a stable market ahead of the World War II commemorations but how they go about achieving that is not immediately apparent.”
Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.7 percent in most-recent trading in Singapore. Contracts on the Hang Seng Index and on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong gained 0.4 percent.
Fluctuations in Chinese markets in August rattled investors worldwide as they struggle to anticipate policy actions in the world’s second-largest economy. Stocks in Shanghai rallied almost 10 percent over Thursday and Friday on speculation authorities are propping up markets before President Xi Jinping takes the stage at a commemorative parade the government will use to demonstrate its rising military and political might. The city’s equity measure declined 12 percent last month.
M&A, Buybacks
China will encourage listed companies to conduct mergers and acquisitions, buy back shares when prices are low and pay higher cash dividends as the government extends efforts to boost share prices. The steps are aimed at increasing the investment value of listed companies and promoting stable and healthy growth of capital markets, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement posted on its website on Monday.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.1 percent ahead of the central bank’s interest-rate decision. Traders and economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its key lending rate at a record-low 2 percent.
South Korea’s Kospi index retreated 0.3 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.6 percent. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.7 percent after capping a 7.4 percent slump in August.
The S&P 500 posted its worst month in more than three years in August, falling 6.3 percent as investors harbored concerns about slowing global growth and the impact of a potential interest-rate increase by the Federal Reserve. [Bloomberg]
FTSE Outlook and Prediction
Well after August’s volatility I wonder how September is going to play out… We have dropped off a bit from the high over the bank holiday weekend, at 6230, and with the 200ema on the 30min showing support at 6140.If not then the lower support is 6125 where we have a fib retracement level with 6108 below that. The daily channels are offering support quite far below where we are, mainly as the volatility has been high the channels have widened a lot. Both Raff and Bianca have 5800 area as support, which I don’t think we will be testing today. I am still thinking that we recover from the recent loss for a rise towards 6425ish in September, before another leg down (am looking at 17200 on the Dow or thereabouts). For today I can see a rise towards 6200 initially, and we have the top of the declining 30min channel with resistance at 6226, which joins up the 2 most recent highs (6258 and 6230), as such the bulls will be keen to break that level sooner rather than later. For today I am looking at resistance at 6200, 6225, and support at 6140 and 6108.
support at 6108 or are we powering through?
Morning all.
Well, I go away for a long weekend and what happens? You turn into a bunch of raging bulls and Elliott Wave fundies ffs!
Now that 50% 6260 dead cat seems to have stopped twitching, I wonder how low we’ll go this time?
Welcome back tmfp –
Lower for me at the moment with the exception of the small bounces here and there…
6018 Line in the sand for the time being – 6088 S3
** – i mean’t 6118
Tryin something new
S 6100
& Out 6 Pints
Depending where you drink, that’s £20, nice one Hugh 🙂
Welcome back tmfp. Glad you are on the bear side too…
It wasn’t very hard to guess though 🙂
Lol, yeah, I just packed a bag and ran last week, all that bull stuff was making feel unclean. 🙂
Although tbh, I fancy the long side at some point today. I don’t think the bulls will roll over as easily as recently again.
S Again 6084
Tgt something small.
(Missed the L at 6074 (9:45) – but I’m trying to ignore these longs as the charts all look a bit southerly)
& Out at 6079 – 5 Pints and L at 6075
& out 6080 5 Pints
For the start of my bull adventure, a little long at 70, 15 pt stop
1 Min 30 MA – broken & moving higher – could be that the base is in …
and a bit more at 86, stop b/e av 78, this could cook a bit I think 1st target 6100
If it’s going to be a week of missing targets by 1 point I’m going straight back on holiday 🙁
Still looks ok though, and was getting a little hot so nothing spoilt yet.
Nope, lost enthusiasm/bottle/concentration, out at 88 for 20
Bits of resistance at 6108 & then higher up 6118…
Charts look better at the moment…
MA 30 on 1 min 6084.2
Long 6081.9
(This is something new – it’s v.short timeframe and small points)
& out 6086
Looks like fun Hugh, are your stops correspondingly small?
RSI 31 – 1 second – Activate Trigger
That was a very quiet hour – normally get 2 – 3 trades per hour from this…
S 6105
& Again 6110 – closed 6105 – so still 6105 open
Stopped out 6105
20 Pint Loss
That’s the problem with microscalping set ups, take 3 here, 5 there, then lose 20 when the wind blows.
It hit 30 quite hard considering it wasn’t very overbought. There’s the uptrend line from 70 at 6112, that’ll be ~ 31.8% pullback, might be worth a little long, but I have the missed the boat feeling.
Yep tmfp – It’s a conundrum. I still like it. But think it works better with some discretion being applied to it.
e.g Long/Short bias with regard to the general move in the market trends & S&R (5 min ) & it’s ideal in range bound markets.
I switched on the “auto trade” and that’s when the poor trades seem to start, so I think I’ll stick with the single triggers.
It seems to work better for me that way.
Think we’re range bound now until 1 o’clock 6100 – 6130
Try again long see if 70 supports again
deeply unconvincing rally, out
DAX holding a bit better than us for the mo
RSI Trio here 6051.
On a bender …again
6044 (38.4 Fib) – 6604 (38.4) Based on Close (not intraday)
RSI Trio here 6051.
out @ 6063
Think this is going higher
L B Limit 63
out @73
Lost the upward momentum
L 6060
& Closed at 6065 – just as the charts look a bit better
Or to put it another way, in the nick of time 🙂
Long Dow 92. Tgt 700
Added 117. Need a break of 250 today
All out at be
Small overnight long added at 16064
Closed.