Support 6078 6052 6050 6028 5970 5857 5853 Resistance 6104 6144 6156 6180

Good morning. Bit of a slow start on the FTSE there in terms of points. The 6150 short came good, though there was a suspicious spike up to 6174 before it dropped down to the 6035 level. The long managed a few points off the support, but wasn’t quite the easy ride up I was hoping for. The 200ema at 6035 on the 30 minute chart provided good support in the evening, and the bulls are pushing to get this back above 6100 as I write. We have NFP out at 13:30 today, with the US expected to add 203K jobs in September, back above August’s 173K.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as investors awaited a monthly government report on U.S. jobs to gauge the strength of the world’s largest economy.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent to 125.22 as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. Economists expect U.S. employers to have added about 201,000 workers in September after a gain of 173,000 in August. The data will factor into the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, due Oct. 28, as the central bank also weighs global financial-market turmoil.

The regional benchmark index’s drop Friday trimmed its advance this week to 0.1 percent with mainland Chinese markets currently shut for a week-long holiday.

“Asia is in for a bit of indigestion today,” said Angus Nicholson, a Melbourne-based market analyst at IG Ltd. “Some of the gains will be pared back as the markets position themselves ahead of the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls number due out tonight.”

Japan’s Topix index retreated 0.6 percent. Bank of Japan officials see little need for an immediate expansion of monetary stimulus and would prefer to hold off to get a clearer picture of the economic outlook, according to people familiar with their deliberations.

Board members who gather for a policy meeting Oct. 6-7 want the opportunity to observe further economic data and developments in financial markets at home and abroad, according to the people, who asked not to be named because talks are private.

Regional Gauges
South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index was little changed. Markets in Hong Kong have yet to open.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent in New York on Thursday, reversing a drop of as much as 1 percent.

American manufacturing barely grew in September. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index fell to 50.2, the weakest since May 2013, the Tempe, Arizona-based group reported Thursday. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have a bit of resistance at 6100 to start with this morning so I think we may see a dip this morning to take us down 6055 which looks like fairly decent support so worth a long here. Looking at the Dow I can see a dip and rise day for that today, with 16180ish level providing the support. If those levels hold then we could be on for a fairly decent bounce today, probably after NFP comes out at 13:30. The bulls will be keen to at least reach the top of the daily channels around the 6150 level, though with both Bianca channels there and going into the weekend we may see a pullback from there as profit is banked if that 6050 level does provide support. So, fairly simple plan today and going for a V shaped day.

166 Comments

  1. Morning.
    I was expecting some strength but didn’t get the pull back entry and it’s Groundhog Day stuff, 0830 and 6150, so rinse and repeat for me and a marker short, although I have the feeling that 6170’s just around the corner.
    FTSE leading the way again, DAX lagging by 150 against this time yesterday.
    I think there will be a determined bull effort off the back of NF’s this afternoon, so buy the dips morning (6100/20) and use any rabid strength (6180+) to lay some more scale up shorts.

    1. I read that this early strength is banking sector due to the news about time limiting PPI claims.

      1. Morning,time limiting…I’d like compensation for wear and tear on my answering machine,never even had PPI.

        1. Yeah, it’s about the only time our house phone ever rings.
          How do you see the FTSE today, WSF?

          Just longed at 28 10 either way

          2. Hi tmfp,Well,cynicism says push for a high close to end the week/start the month and top of the recent range is maybe 6240 odd,so closer to 6200,but with NFP as a non event because it’s being talked up a lot at the moment I’d guess it wont stay above 6217 the 8ema on the weekly has been a good resistance since June.If I was going to guess a close I’d say 6160’s,again because of the Weekly chart,but I’d like to see the 6140 area break this morning for more than 30 minutes.Think it will hold at 6125 or 6106 because that is what it has been doing.

      1. Morning Tmfp I think that before NFP we have a good likely hood of the Dow hitting the 16500s and pulling up the Ftse with it, I don’t think it will hold and probably start selling off again towards the close,any thoughts?

        1. I don’t take any notice of the DOW until 14.30 anstel.
          From 0700-1430 I watch the DAX/FTSE then 1430-late, the DOW/FTSE.

  2. 1900 held on S&P and bounced straight back up. The markets were going to go one of two ways from there so key level near term (i should have closed all shorts when it didn’t break)? Hard not to see a repeat of yesterday and the whole bloody week? Could punters have already bought todays news whilst it was so cheap and will sell regardless?

  3. DAX bulls now waking up a bit, high 20’s holding here, if we get through 40 could have another go at 50+.
    A spec long at 36, 10 stop, overtrading a bit, should wait for 40 to break really.

  4. Hi All, this morning agreed with Nicks plan, with the V plan, anyway tried a short of pivot which got stopped and scalped back those from the morning spike up. Then shorted 6130 & 6154, and closed all 6131&6135. To be honest didn’t expect that strong bull rise first thing from 6100 to 6150….
    Anyway think still V plan for today, but upside down….:-)

    2. tmfp – Have you tried vaping ? Bought my first one over a year ago and haven’t felt any urge to return. Google a Aspire Atlantis – that gives you a massive bang for your buck !

      1. OH pleeease Hugh, the biking world is full of vapers, a friend of mine has turned into a complete vaping geek, it’s all he ever talks about, expelling vast plumes of sweet smelling steam where ever he goes.
        I only use 50g of rolling tobacco a week, a pale shadow of the 40 a day Senior Service man I used to be.

      1. Reminder of a typical NFP day – boring, boring, boring, boring, eye twitches, GREAT TERROR, REVERSAL, boring, boring, pub, pub, pub, pub

  6. Think it might be a bit sideways? S&P could break up to 1940 taking FTSE back to 55 area. They need to break 1920 for another leg down.

    1. No I still think that the DAX is on a bull mission if it cracks 9630 convincingly and will drag us with it.
      As I said to anstel above, I don’t take a lot of notice of US markets in our morning, I think the DAX has more influence, until they open properly at 14.30.
      Pretty flat really, 15 pt range for an hour.

        2. Just looked in before I go out, we got the convincing break of 50, added a bit more long on the pullback stop on all to av b/e 42, still limit 70.

        1. Yes Senu it’s at 16282 it’s just a hunch really this trade,hope you are doin well it’s really difficult at the moment , best of luck.

          2. GL mate. I thought this is going to 300 first. i am not into any trade now. took 20 pts in FTSE in the morning and should call it a day

        2. My old way off trading doesn’t seem to work since the Greek crisis so I’ve adopted a different approach.

        1. LOL well, those missing 59,000 jobs short are worth about $500,000 each to the equity markets! Crazy.
          Glad I got out ++ at 6170, but a little peeved that my MP 6180 short missed by 2.
          So, what to do at 6060?
          Nothing on a Friday afternoon for me, had a good week don’t want to spoil it.
          Would expect any rally to be sold, what else is new, but nothing terminally broke till 6030 and 15800 go, which they might late on.

          Nice short ZZ, weren’t you a teensy bit worried at 6160+ or did you manage to catch it on the way down?

  10. Very weak bears. Waiting for a spike then stepping in? NFP no news in my eyes. Get it out the way then back to reality.

  12. Wow anyone seen gold?! can’t see this recovering? People clearly taking there money out of stocks.

      1. Yep – Can’t see much risk sitting to the upside ATM – but am waiting for the US to open.
        FTSE 6040 ??

  13. tmfp says:
    October 2, 2015 at 9:52 am
    Reminder of a typical NFP day – boring, boring, boring, boring, eye twitches, GREAT TERROR, REVERSAL, boring, boring, pub, pub, pub, pub

    ….in progress

        1. I might be being bold and based on this weeks up and down you might be right.
          I would say the odds are buyers are frightened – bull story of continued growth and higher rates looking v v unlikely. As it sinks people will get more nervous so buyers wont be back for a few hours – no one seems to have any common sense at the moment though so could well be wrong.
          Movement at the moment is likely to be bears taking some profit so might seem a bit stubborn as it goes down.

    2. Well that’s the GREAT TERROR done, is it REVERSAL time?
      Doesn’t look like it, but it never does….

  14. Short from 6142 – set to breakeven. Targetting 5958 (29/9 high) – we gapped up on the Weds so expect this gap to be filled. May close early if we have a closing bar above the 5 min 34 ema. Expecting retraces on the way. 15 min fib suggests 5945 possible as well.

    1. closed half at 6100 – rest still at breakeven – that high-velocity shot at 13.30 is now rebounding off the 6050 ‘wall’. Still think the damage is done and we’ll see my 5958 target next week, but too many NFP days have reversed so sticking to my rules.

    1. Well, if it wasn’t for that shape or whatever I wouldn’t have recovered to -60ish quid. Had long on Dow and it was early, as usual.

  16. Reduced the size of my Dow Hedge nicely and put a long in at 16051 looking for 16300 with the idea of sticking a S/l under it when it is in profit by a 100 or so and closing a short from earlier in the week at 16192 at the same time.The interest on the Hedge has been too many points every day and the different trades have been too far apart for recent ranges.I keep trying to Straddle trade with Spread Betting and it never works as well as it should.End up trading just to pay overnight interest.

    1. You could use the Fut where there’s no ovenight financing – obviously the spread is wider.
      (I’ve also mentioned this before – Spread Co are offering no financing on Short positions)

      1. Thanks,used to use the Futures,cant remember why I stopped,you have to pay for your vices and keep them on one monitor lol… seriously though I do think there is a thin line between working with ranges and trying to be too clever,avoid small losses,chase stress.My plan is to unwrap this one whenever and then go cold turkey and see what the P/L and lifestyle difference is.WSF is Reminiscences of a Stock Operator = Wall Street Fool,overtrading.I noticed that people here are better than me at waiting for the move/trading what is happening now,the Zen thing 🙂 that was why i mentioned it,kind of say it out loud.
        I mean I am looking at 16153 now and thinking close the 16192 short s/l the 16051 long and open a new short for later and that isnt trading that is just keeping a lifestyle of open trades.

        1. Interesting stuff.
          I keep it simple, for the life of me open opposing positions would confuse the hell out of me (and of course, come with extra expenses).
          Clarity of thought is essential, if you’re wrong you’re wrong, but be wrong for the right reasons.

          1. Yes,think you are right,going to try it exclusively that way and see about “quality of life”.

        1. would be nice – it’s 61.8% retrace as well – won’t be surprised if it carves through like butter!

    2. It is frustrating when it doesn’t touch certain key levels.
      I really thought 6040 was almost baked in to the plan ! Maybe it still is ….

      1. Yeah but that doesn’t necessarily mean you short at 6065 after 100 point drop. Lousy risk/reward, old bean.
        🙂

  21. Well guys I managed to gain 112 pts on this Dow rise thankfully,it more than covers my loss when it fell through my stop earlier so I’m quite pleased.:0)

      1. Probably better not mention any names but it didn’t stop me out till 16320 and it was approx 16370 when it collapsed! it was a small stake luckily.Stops on the Dow a bit unreliable with the big moves that can happen.Another lesson learnt,I thought just before it tanked, “Buy the rumour sell the fact,but then I thought the jobs number would have been much better than the figures given, I suppose it helps to justify the delay in rate rises,but I can’t see rates going up anytime soon the debt needs looking after as cheaply as possible.

        1. Thanks marketmaking I needed to pull something out of the bag,I have been in a slump the last week or two and it’s a much needed boost to confidence :0)

  24. Well, if it wasn’t for that V shape or whatever I wouldn’t have recovered to -60ish quid (I wouldn’t be waiting for it anyway, god blessed). Had long on Dow and it was early, as usual.

  25. So chaps, what did we learn this week?
    For me it was the truth in Buy the Weakness, Sell the Strength, don’t chase.
    And the old chestnut, a profit’s not a profit till it’s taken.
    You?

    2. Hope you have had a good week !! Is it not buying into strength and selling into weakness ? Doing it other way around would be similar to guessing tops and bottoms.

      1. My rule of thumb is the voices in my head (not the Napoleon one)
        If I’m thinking “Wow, this is going to the moon”, it’s more than likely time to sell.
        If I’m going “This isn’t worth a carrot, the world’s about to end”, then it’s time to cover shorts.

        I’ve never been a trend chaser, always contrarian, I think our trading approach is coloured by our personalities, as much as we try to be analytical.

      1. Sounds right and also that when Shanghai is shut exactly the same stuff happens but they cant blame the Chinese 🙂

    4. I learned that I’m getting into my old habits and need to read my notes again.
      This resulted this week in -19 points (£1pp atm) for the week. Feeling fear, taking trades against trend in fear for some reason, how to explain that? Taking bigger than needed stop losses, or moving stop loss sometimes.
      Today was out of order, resulted in double up and no stop loss, all acc. was under the hammer. Not pleased with myself again.
      If I held till 16207 I would have closed b/e, but who would have known, I closed 16160, fair enough.

      1. basically my 45 points this week’s profits gone after 13.30 today and took extra 20 from the previous week.

        1. Jack 2,Sorry to hear that,sometimes it helps to trim the notes down to a few points re trade entry and exit and keep to them.

    1. Too brave, I tried short at 16.07, managed to win 28 points, which added to my recovery. Gosh, I wish I held my long still.

  27. Anybody thinking of shorting this market strength? I think tmfp has probably finished for the day so anyone else got any thoughts ?

    1. Lol, you can’t get rid of me that easy 🙂
      A short is looking tempting, but not everybody wants to carry an over weekend position these days and I think you’re a bit low on confidence.
      What I would do, and may if I’m in the mood, would be to sell the close (16272) on a binary if we get to 16300 ish by 20.00. You’d probably get about 70 for it so known exposure for a 2:1 bet on a closing sell off, which I think is quite possible.

      1. Hi buddy read your response,yes you are right I’m a little low on confidence.i have not really recovered from the Greek Sunday night thing,also I’ve been bitten going short with markets that really were on the verge of big falls so I’m just trying to become rounded again and play both sides, The binary thing I know nothing about so I’m keeping to what I know a bit about.

  28. Closed the 16051 long at 16241,practicing what I said earlier and had enough for the day/week,dont want to watch it and wait for 300 or hold it any longer,want the reduced account margin for the weekend and a positive end to the day.
    Have a good weekend everyone.

      1. Yes I put it up at 6202, didn’t expect this to be this strong! still it’s Friday hopefully there may be some selling later .Im trying to rebuild my confidence in going short and it’s not looking like the best start!

  30. Interesting green hammer on the weekly. Given that the last two weeks just gone are seasonally the most bearish I’m starting to wonder if we’re going to see some attempt to break out above 6300 into a 6300-6600 range soon. Positive divergence starting to show on the weekly rsi10 as well. Daily tsi has been pointing up since the capitulation low on 24 Aug though still has a way to go to get into positive territory. Gap up days we’ve had this week have been very impulsive; strong reversal today; often get a ‘low’ in early October … Daily candles now testing the 34ema (though can take 2-3 goes to get above them). Am thinking the expected visit to 6958 may be postponed until Nov? Fundamentals are screaming ‘no way’ but stranger things have happened. Perhaps now’s not the time not to be gung-ho about shorts. Will next week be green or red?

    1. Zigzagger,I think up to the bottom of the original Bull trend then down is possible,but late Oct & Nov/Dec rally and up for U.S election is also something I can imagine,ECB in 3 weeks or something.
      Crashes/Wars etc 1st yr of a new US President historically and 2008 showed they dont have the stomach for the austerity they pushed on Asia and Eastern Europe as a solution in the past.

    2. To be honest ZZ this market is crazy! Yesterday it had no friends then today up to NFP it went up nicely then it spat it’s dummy out,and now it’s picked up its dummy, washed it off,and it’s happy again,it makes no sense to me!!!!

  31. I’m kickin, myself on this last trade…
    I’m not surprised the market has retraced virtually to it’s earlier highs.
    Thinking it will go to 6175 and hopefully then move lower.
    Cover in at 6180.

  33. A small short at 6185, nothing to do tonight, may as well have a play.
    Also sold the binary DOW close at 80.

    1. Tell me about it Senu the first time I go short in ages and it gives me a headache, I suppose I could move my stop up slightly but I’m trying to behave like I’ve been taught !!!!

  37. You mean my stop loss method?
    I only leave platform stops when I am away from the computer (don’t trade on phones) or occasionally on very tight scalps.
    I try to place my stops meaningfully, i.e. for technical reasons, not just to prevent losses/preserve profits.
    This usually means when a trend line or resistance level is breached.
    To avoid false breakouts or exhaustion run ons, I want 3 x 1min candle closing confirmations past my stop level before I push the button.
    Sometimes this can cost a bit of money, but my gut instinct is that it has saved more, although I haven’t kept a record.

  38. I have no intention of holding this short over the weekend and the binary will obviously settle at 21.30.
    My hope is that this current micro weakness (320) will develop into a break of 16300, precipitating a heavy sell off into the close and loadsa money…..
    Stop to break even, if it goes back up there in the next hour I deffo don’t want it.

    1. And out.
      Still think the binary could come off, as we know 100 points is nothing these days.
      Good luck Anstel, what’s plan B, short over the weekend with the 6202 stop?

    1. Persistent little devil isn’t it.
      6228 & 6258 are the next resistance points I have.
      If it reaches 6258 – that will be a a headline up 130 (2% from Friday cash close)
      I reopened my Short roughly around 6180.
      I think / hope that this will swing at least to 6142.

      Been having a very quick browse through a couple of charts.
      Not exactly inspiring any of them but I guess they never are
      at this stage.
      I guess it still comes down to if there will be rate rise or not so
      the press will be full of that stuff. If they don’t I suppose that’s relatively
      good for divy stocks.

      RSI Trio as I write 6217.

      Have a good w/e

        1. +480 points in 6 hours after those NFP figures………….I think we’re doing well to still have shirts on our backs, to be honest.

          Have a good weekend 🙂

      1. A sort of result ??? for some reason it came off 15 pts at 21.30, out at 6227, slightly less painful but just as irritating.

  42. Well that did not do my confidence in going short one bit of good, good night all and good luck.

    1. Without rubbing it in anstel, not the best time to open a naked short in this sort of market, NFP Friday night.
      Have a good weekend.

      1. No I suppose you are right tmfp but I thought it would have sold off into the close after all the weakness we have had,Be interesting to see what happens next week and whether or not this mysterious market strength continues.Have a great weekend.

        1. I obviously thought the same way and burned a few quid too.
          Naked shorting into that sort of rise is v high risk strategy.
          I’m used to it, but not the best way for you to build your confidence back.

  43. Just read through last posts. Had a good week and good day trading today with Nicks levels. We did go long at 6055, but got nervous and closed at 6087 – damn! Who knew it will recover up to 6200+ in one way traffic!
    Anyway Friday and NFP always high risk and even the best traders avoid! My advice would be trade with small stakes only if u got enough profit points already. But I feel it’s best to stick to 1-2% max risk, and also have a daily cut off, if one two trades work out and say you already up more than target daily or 2-4% per day, stop and think of next day. Trading every turn and twist – your bound to make errors. Exception for TMFP amazing how you trade and scalp – nice job!
    But different trading style suits different people, ie aggressive trading or waiting for confirmation of trend change etc
    Anyway won’t say anything more as I am still learning myself and it’s a hard job this…tbh
    From my experience of Friday evening in such situations is that as trend is not changing and it had recovered strongly from low, no point trying to short at all, wait for Monday and have a relaxed weekend – better in peace…GLA next week

  45. Am watching Dow at the moment,was thinking ASX opening gap trade on a down then up pattern,technically everything is looking a bit bullish,so ASX as the precedent for FTSE etc maybe.Was short Dow at 16 428.9 and currently Long just playing until ASX open,currently up 9 points lol:
    http://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/

    1. Haven’t done the GAPS on ASX for a while – they used to be good trades.
      I was looking at the Eur / USD for direction – EUR dwn = FTSE up ..

  46. I was thinking from the cash market a close of the opening gap then a resumption of the trend,cityindex open = 5093 and falling

  48. seems not to want to come down which is a shame,I guess we all read the same Opening Gap studies,a move above 5115 gets interesting.It is taking my Dow long up anyway.

  50. Ok I am tempted by the idea of 5200 if it goes another 20 odd points up,so will watch for a while good luck tomorrow.Looks like it might be a good day 🙂

Comments are closed.