Spread betting help | Support 6546, 6522, 6486, 6460, 6400 Resistance 6572, 6652, 6742, 6749

Good morning. So Greece didn’t make the payment in the end and have defaulted on €1.6bn debt, and the FTSE rose from that 6500 low. The Greeks requested a 2-year bailout package but that was denied by the Germans. Its getting very tedious and will be a relief when its sorted one way or the other really. There is a 1.7 divi to be applied today. Also, NFP will be released tomorrow in the US as they are closed on Friday for Independence Day holidays.

Greece – overview of where we are now
European leaders are waiting for signs that Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is ready to compromise as his country buckles under capital controls and fails to make its International Monetary Fund payment.

With Greek society feeling the pain of rationed bank withdrawals and pensions, the government is looking for a way out of economic ruin after a bailout expired and the country joined delinquent Sudan and Zimbabwe in being in arrears to the global lender of last resort.

An 11th-hour request for a new two-year rescue package to tide over a ravaged economy was sternly dismissed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. With Greece’s stay in the euro club at stake, finance ministers in the 19-nation bloc are scrambling for a solution to pull Greece away from the precipice after more than five years of crisis fighting and two bailouts.

“People are just completely fed up,” said Andrea Montanino, a former IMF executive board member who now heads the global economics program at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

While Tsipras has framed the July 5 referendum on budget cuts to be a vote against austerity, economists and policy makers view it as a decision on remaining in the euro. The outcome could determine whether the European Central Bank pulls a financial lifeline keeping the economy on life support.

Merkel said there was “absolutely nothing” to talk about before Sunday.

Still Talking?
Nevertheless, there are tentative signs of a thaw as euro-area finance ministers decide to take up Greece’s new aid bid for the second time at 11:30 a.m. Brussels time Wednesday. At first glance, a plan devoid of any economic-reform measures appeared to be a non-starter, according to three officials with knowledge of the first call on the proposal that took place Tuesday.

“The request from Greece appears designed to keep the region somewhat off-balance, and to create the impression that Tsipras is searching for an imaginative solution,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist at JPMorgan Chase Bank in London. “Any deal struck at this stage is going to be on the Eurogroup’s terms.”

In an effort to give talks traction, Greece has agreed to offer more information and said it might change its referendum terms and recommendation, according to an official speaking on condition of anonymity.

‘Little Choice’
“With no fundamental change in the institutions’ offer, Tsipras will have little choice than to maintain his support for a ‘No’ vote, as he announced last Friday,” analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to investors. “This has become even more important, since he publicly declared that he would resign in case of a ‘Yes’ vote. The referendum is thus now about euro membership and Tsipras’s future.”

In Washington, the IMF is digesting what is the biggest missed payment since the institution was created during World War II. Its board will decide whether to grant a Greek request for an extension, something Montanino doesn’t think is likely.

For now, at least, markets suggest investors are confident policy-makers are containing the damage. The euro is trading at $1.114, about the same as before negotiations collapsed on June 26. Bonds rose on Tuesday in Spain, Portugal and Italy, which sold 6.8 billion euros ($7.6 billion) of debt on Tuesday. In Asian trading Wednesday, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained for a second day, adding 0.4 percent at 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong.

Back in Greece — where citizens are limited to 60 euros ($67) a day of withdrawals — the stress of living under financial quarantine is beginning to show. Two pensioners came to blows on a bus returning from the beach to Athens Tuesday morning over who is to blame for the crisis. [Ref]

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, after the regional benchmark gauge posted its biggest monthly drop since September, as energy and materials shares led gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.1 percent to 146.38 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The measure slid 3.4 percent in June, leaving it little changed for the quarter, as Chinese equities in Hong Kong slumped. The city’s stock market is closed Wednesday for a holiday.

An official report on China’s manufacturing industry for June will show the quickest expansion since October, while a private factory gauge will signal a fourth month of contraction, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg before data Wednesday. Greece missed a deadline for repaying $1.7 billion to the IMF after bailout talks with its creditors imploded, with investors now awaiting a July 5 vote by its people on whether they support austerity measures.

“The extreme wariness toward Greece does seem to be fading,” said Hiroichi Nishi, a manager at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. in Tokyo. “But until the referendum, it’s like annoyingly having a tiny fish bone stuck in the back of your throat.”

Japan’s Topix index added 0.3 percent after posting a fifth straight quarterly gain. A survey of sentiment among the nation’s large manufacturers beat estimates. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.1 percent after capping a 7.3 percent slide from March through June, its steepest such drop since 2011. The Kospi index gained 0.1 percent in Seoul, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.5 percent.

Chicago futures trading on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is delayed until 8:45 p.m. New York time to account for the leap second. The underlying measure rallied 0.3 percent in New York on Tuesday, following its steepest one-day slump since April 2014. The gauge slid 0.2 percent in the quarter. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook for spread betting help

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help
FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting help

I think most people are getting pretty fed up of trying to navigate and trade around Greece at the moment. That said, for today we have some support initially at the daily pivot at 6546, which may see us build on the bounce from 6500 overnight. However, below the pivot 6513 is the next support. We are then getting towards the bottom of the 2 Bianca channels at 6522 and the 10 day at 6486. I think the 6522/6513 area might hold on any initial dip. There is also a pretty wide declining channel on the 30min with resistance at 6570ish and support at 6460 and then 6410.

Im going to try a small long off the pivot initially but with a tight stop and see what happens. It will either bounce there or go to 6520. If it bounces then a break out above the 30min channel at 6570 could well reach the 200ema at 6650ish.

138 Comments

        1. Yes mate.
          Was sorely tempted to book half last night at 6500 but I’ll stick with it.
          Was expecting a rally this morning, if 87 turns out to be the high, that’s a big fail attempt on 6600.
          Don’t normally play with binaries, but I sold the 6520 close this morning at 80, seems like a good 4/1 bet.
          What have you done with your cheap long?

      2. When it was yes no yes no, we should have termed it Loreen Status quo Loreen again Status quo again.

  5. I think it will just range again today in a tight band. I don’t see why it should break unless someone says something really significant

  6. Morning All –
    Given that my dress code today is “Shorts” I actually went
    Long at 6556 – just above pivot as Nick pointed out earlier.
    Out a bit to early I regret at 6572.

    1. Done two rsi trades this morning Hugh, a long for 12 off the bottom and a short at 600 which just stopped out.
      Talking of stopped out watch for a big spike as my MP short goes lol…..NOW

    1. Think it may need to pause for breath ! Eyeing up big distance between 30 MA and Price on 5 Min.
      It’ll either range trade whilst the average moves higher or sink a little to get closer to it.

  15. I think spike in the afternoon to reach those 6660 and 11290-260, 17820 respectively.
    Not sure if I carry on, feel rather unwell. But got all my losses back from Monday.

  17. Gained 46 points this morning,out at 6623 hoping for a decent pullback to re-enter long

  19. @ Senu “The Greece thing is nearly done”….I don’t hear any fat ladies singing just yet mate.
    I still think there is the possibility of a meltdown to previous recent lows. Apart from fib which can justify virtually anything, I don’t see any support till then.
    It will certainly be interesting to look back on.
    If TPTB get their way and the bull market resumes with a gap up when everyone’s friends again, they’ll have to invent a new term for the pattern: ‘Abandoned Doji Triplets formation’ or something like that.
    🙂

    1. lol…thanks. 🙂 I bought some 6300 put last week, still holding it. One fast visit to 6300 will do 🙂

  20. shorts on Dow spx and ftse. Tgt 700,73,80.
    thats the plan…lets see if it works this time

          1. Yes, I have a short order 11336. Maybe too high but it’s reasonable for Dax volatility.

          1. ok, but it’s not US open yet, and I am bothered a little about it because I am not in a trade and waiting for an opportunity. It may happen or may not, but I’ve seen it many times.

          2. Just look critically on 10 min charts of FTSE, Dow and Dax, does it really look like it’s going short right now?

          3. Like you, am looking for an opportunity to short the DAX, if possible today.
            Do you think we’ll see the spike to 11320, as that’s what I’m expecting…then a drop back down maybe to 11150

          4. That’s exactly what I am expecting I got short orders 11336 11289
            A bit risky but I’d rather wait to short from those levels than right now.

  25. well first time here and just for your information I have gone long from 6610 on ftse. Looks like an easy trade for 20 pips or so.

  26. been trading for just over two weeks and already tripled my account.
    its just so easy this trading business. wish i had heard about it before.
    you guys all look seasoned so you must all be living the dream life, fast cars
    big homes, champagne and a perpetual holiday.
    love to hear about your millionaire lives you leading.

      1. Noitall just to warn you Trading is NOT easy. It’s beginners luck ,it sucks you in and then rapes you?Ask anyone on here,be careful or your trading career could end in a few weeks.

      1. At the moment I have a new deposit in a different account, I withdrawn 200 quid from it already and now above 100 quid. Basically I am starting at the moment. I decided to go small but often and withdraw profits, otherwise you just wait for the big win and it never happens.

  28. i am only placing £ 25 per pip trades. hoping to increase it to 100 £ /pip soon.
    what you guys trading per pip? you must all be over £ 100 + by now.
    are you chaps using the black box for signals? great isn’t it.

        1. Well it could easily be a case of accessing the website from a remote machine or using a VPN to disguise Nick. It sounds pretty much like Syed and its too late to be trading from Australia 🙂

    2. I use the green box myself, superstitious.
      I remember when that Americanism ‘pips’ for points started. My old boss said ‘Pips? We’re not trading f*cking apples here.”

  29. rj

    not sure what you mean

    tmfp

    once again not sure what you mean

    suppose must be a private joke here

    1. Ignore me mate, I’m a grumpy old man who just ‘lost’ £7k overnight.
      For millionaire lifestyles, Argyle will be on later, he’s got a flat the size of Goa, or something like that…

      1. Hi tmfp I have just come in and read your post,I’m really sorry you lost that 7k,I feel you pain bud.

        1. Thanks anstel, I put ‘lost’ in quotes because I broke even in the real world, just didn’t take the paper £7k profit when the little voice in my head told me to.

          1. Yeah I did the same with Cyprus last year was 8k up on a short and decided to hold overnight and they doubled the interest rate,think I made about £4 in the end so I put £1 to it and bought some fish and chips 🙂

  31. closed my long at 6630. easy £ 500 in an hour.
    today not as good as yesterday made 189 pips.
    but day is not over yet i suppose.

  34. senu

    just got your joke about the weather

    11m ago
    00:16
    While the UK swelters, Greeks are suffering a dose of traditional British weather:

  36. So guys, the news about referendum is the reason for the move since last Saturday? am i rite?

    1. Nice one, I have a FTSE long at 94 which I’m a bit undecided about, but we could see some upside all round in the next hour

  42. Just going through the earlier comments.. I remember the Syed guy, anyone know what he is doing….at the time he seemed quite confident of the trades…

    1. Nice trades mate. You won’t get any grief here if you post your trades in advance or real time.
      If I remember correctly, Syed the guy mentioned, used to tell everyone after the event about how clever he was, which can piss people off.

      Good Luck.

  44. got my 15 pips for £ 375
    Rounded the day so far for 156 pips
    and £ 3900
    not as good a day as yesterday

  45. Thanks tmfp. I do post realtime trades though. 🙂 I am trading while at work so I tend to have limit orders set, and keep checking the positions from the ig mobile app.
    certainly not as experienced as a lot of you here and have been learning over the years. any feedback is welcome

    1. I didn’t mean you don’t icarus, I read what you write, a 2 hour time view helps me see the wood for the trees.

  47. tmfp

    not sure what you mean by real time trades.
    the black box gives a price to enter and a price to exit.
    this is given before hand and I place the trades accordingly
    sometimes if the order is not taken the entry price is revised up or down
    this was the case for my last trade which initially was 6614 revised to 6612
    for 15 pips
    not sure how you trade though.
    everybody seems to know a syed character. presume he was a good trader ?

    1. Real time refers to the subject of your posts here i.e. a summary of how many pips/much money you made yesterday isn’t very constructive in terms of what’s happening right now.
      A post saying “my black box says buy now for 15 pips” is good and can be helpful, whether or not someone follows you is up to them.
      Basically this is somewhere were we swap views, not measure dicks.

  48. He certainly “appeared” to be one. My memory of him in one word is “arrogant”

  49. tmfp

    still not sure what you are referring to ?

    1st trade posted

    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 2:05 pm
    well first time here and just for your information I have gone long from 6610 on ftse. Looks like an easy trade for 20 pips or so
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 3:08 pm
    closed my long at 6630. easy £ 500 in an hour.
    today not as good as yesterday made 189 pips.
    but day is not over yet i suppose

    2nd trade posted
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 3:22 pm
    got my order waiting at 6616 for 18 pips
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 3:34 pm
    closed for 18 pips, made £ 450

    3rd trade posted
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 3:41 pm
    got a new order to sell 6614 for 15 pips
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 3:59 pm
    moved the order down to 6612
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 4:12 pm
    order taken looking for 15 pips
    noitall says:
    July 1, 2015 at 4:38 pm
    got my 15 pips for £ 375
    Rounded the day so far for 156 pips
    and £ 3900
    not as good a day as yesterday

    not sure if this can be made any more clearer

    2. Yeah that’s fine, the point was that the comparison with Sayed was prompted by arrogance similar to
      “been trading for just over two weeks and already tripled my account.
      its just so easy this trading business.”
      which was one of his trademarks.
      Another was he posted supposedly profitable trades after they had happened, which is no use to anyone, just an ego trip for him.
      You’re not doing that, you’re posting in ‘real time’ and that’s fine.

      Anyway, you in Australia as your IP says, or are you using a VPN?

  50. tmfp

    obviously something has occurred with this chap “syed” and this room
    that obviously has rocked the boat
    i just posted the trades because i was overwhelmed by the ease of
    how simple it was to make money using the box.
    but obviously something has riled people here
    my apologies
    not sure what sort of method you use to trade, but not sure what
    you are referring to as well – when you say “Basically this is somewhere were we swap views, not measure dicks”

    2. Oh, again this black box. It is definitely a Syed’s thing. But I wouldn’t fall for that box or whatever.

    3. what it simply means is – amount of profit don’t matter. What matters is how skilled you are. Out of curiosity, if your box (which apparently is black) can do such wonders, why don’t you just develop or get someone to develop a mechanism to automate button clicks on the trading platform of your choice. You can be away on holiday for the rest of your life while Mr.box gives you a regular flow of income!!

    4. I sincerely hope you don’t have to change your alias to knewitall in the next 2 weeks 🙂

  51. Long on dax@134 Dow@702, spx@70

    targeting 400, 900 and 100 respectively.
    wait and watch

        1. Can I just add that I am still trying to refine my stops, I am just keeping the stops wide to begin with atm and move them close to b/e. I would have usually gone with a tighter stop if the trade was on a shorter timeframe than this one is on.

  53. “milka says: July 1, 2015 at 3:44 pm
    what did you base the spike on? you were right”
    It’s simple and complicated at the same time. I looked at Nick’s arrows and it showed a spike. I compared to Dax and thought that it might spike to 11340 (R1) or if it runs out of puff earlier then 11293, the previous visible top or level (29June 14.50). And after it spikes to that level the price is ready to pull back. Until this happens the price in spite of our wishes could swirl around, spiking down to kill stops of long trades, but it will get to the top where the level is and it will pull back from there, not earlier. (it might not have pulled back but it does quite a lot)
    It is hard to spot the top though so we use various things: previous levels of which the price bounced of in the past, channels, but it’s hard to know for sure. This is a simple explanation.
    On top of that (to complicate things) I use EMA, MACD: and they showed me a long formation and 1st wave, and I knew it will not pull back before it reaches one of those levels mentioned before. And because usually the 1st wave equals the second I thought we were getting to 11350ish where also the top of the channel was.

  54. Having reviewed the positions, I am going to take a more cautious approach. There is potential for a fall prior to a move up(if any). Will have to review tomorrow morning again

      1. Yes, up or down both are possible. Atm my analysis suggests up. I won’t blink if I have to switch sides. I am also not a believer of markets follow the news…I think markets do what they usually do and we simply interpret it how we want. So far so good, tomorrow is a new beginning
        . Good night!

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