Rise to 6055 today maybe. Looks pretty bearish – 5700 soon?

Support 6024 6000 5972 5950
Resistance 6053 6060 6078 6127 6206

Good morning.
Market Summary for Monday
The FT100 still showed high volatility by swinging more than 100 points during the day. It breached 6100 at the open then fell briefly below 6000 soon after Wall Street opened. The oil price again seemed to be the main driver as it has become a proxy for the state of the global economy. It fell most of the day from $34 to $31.5. As a result the oil (and commodity) sectors were some of the worse performers yesterday with oil consumers such as travel shares benefiting. All in all it was a pretty bearish day down to 6000, with just a small bounce for that 6040 long in the end, showing the importance of getting the stops to breakeven as soon as possible. However, it was a good fight back from the bulls from 6000, managing 6085 out of hours though its slipped back overnight. Still thinking 6050/6150 area is a short term top, especially as oil looks to have slipped (pun intended!) from the $35 area possibly en route to $16.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks dropped, with the regional benchmark index heading for its first decline in five days, as material and energy shares led losses after oil resumed its selloff amid signs China’s economy is deteriorating.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.3 percent to 122.29 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge on Monday capped its longest winning streak of the year, gaining 4.1 percent in four days, as optimism grew that central banks around the world will support financial markets. Crude tumbled Monday after China’s official factory gauge signaled a record sixth straight month of deterioration.

“We’re in for a period of continuing caution,” Angus Gluskie, a managing director who oversees $550 million at White Funds Management in Sydney, said by phone. “It’s a period of uncertainty. China remains the biggest concern for investors. If the Chinese situation develops more adversely, it could have greater ramifications.”

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday that the impact of recent market turbulence on U.S. growth could factor into decision-making, helping U.S. stocks shrug off the oil slump to close little changed. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.4 percent on Tuesday.

Japan’s Topix index lost 0.8 percent, after rallying more than 5 percent over the previous two days on the Bank of Japan’s unexpected stimulus boost. South Korea’s Kospi index slid 0.6 percent. New Zealand’s benchmark gauge added 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.6 percent before the nation’s central bank reviews its monetary policy.

China Futures
Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, while those for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index slumped 1.8 percent on Monday after official factory gauge signaled a record sixth straight month of deterioration, raising the stakes for policy makers struggling to prop up the economy amid a second bear market in stocks since June and a currency at a five-year low.

Crude futures fell as much as 0.9 percent on Tuesday after slumping 6 percent on Monday. U.S. inventories probably rose by 3.75 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Initially it looks like 6055 is a fairly key area as we have the daily pivot here and also a 30min coral trend change with resistance here too. As such I think this level will be worth an early short. With the drop off the 6120 area yesterday and the oil price dropping, I think the FTSE might be nearing the end of its run up from 5600. If 6000 breaks then there is S1 at 5980, and then 5950 below that were we have the 10 day Bianca channel, and the daily EMAs. Above 6055 then its likely to reach 6100 again (it could infact probably go to 6200 and then drop and still keep the bearish future intact) where we have a PRT resistance on the the 30min, with 6140 above that for the channel. Given recent volatility, if it breaks above 6055 then going long is worth a go to target those areas, even though I haven’t put that on the trade plan below, mainly as the 100 Hull MA on the 2 hour has resistance at 6078. Google results last night drove the US markets up, but the FTSE only managed 6080 (US markets have since fallen back as well). Generally I am not felling overly bullish at the moment, despite us holding above 6000 yesterday, and the main resistance levels I am watching today are 6055, 6078, 6105 and 6127.

220 Comments

  1. Morning all.
    This morning’s rubbish action so far has woken up the bear in me.
    Not going sellsellsell but it will take a lot to convince me that this trip above 6000 was anything more that the dying gasp of a big fat dead cat.
    I think Nick’s got it right (again), I was lucky enough to short at 19 this morning and b/e stop on it now, attempting to ignore the mounting blue ink and hold for as long as possible.
    It’s got to be sell the bounces for me. The DAX and DOW look even worse.

        1. Longing the VIX and buying cheap puts are a way to get bear exposure without biting nails too hard every time there’s an occasional 100+ rally.
          Nice to have them ticking over in the background, it takes the pressure off trying to guess a top.

  2. Morning tmfp, as previously reported I am pretty bearish. Closed short from last night too early at 6020 but am running a couple of puts as advised!
    I think Nick is right too, 5700 is easily do able.

  3. Morning All,

    Just a repeat of yesterday but in the 700s. Short first thing on the Dax at 730 with 15 point stop with a limit at 665 which got triggered.

    Looking to short any rallies.

  4. I was rushing rushing today at 8.45 thought I will be quick to school and back and retrace needs at least 20 min, but came it didn’t retrace but went further. What a shame. Now, looking at 1 hour expect a decent retrace to 9690 dax hopefully, otherwise 9675-9660 will do.
    Yesterday I thought, that rise is good for shorting, OK I will take it first thing in the morning and what in the morning? I am sleeping.

  5. Morning chaps well good and bad from me…….I closed my FTSE longs yday at 80 all together for +23……… I lost on the 83 and the 87 but the 02 44 and 69 made the gains on the overall position…..I was thinking bird in the hand and all that when I closed it but really I thought it was good for 6100 plus to be honest….what I didn’t do was close my Dax from 87 though so I’m looking at a chunk of red ink on that at present…….I’m tempted to go long again on Ftse but I’m going to wait and see how the Dax behaves……Good Luck all.

    1. Morning,that was a hell of a run up on the Dow lifting stuff last night but if this week closes further down with the Dax it’ll have a very ominous shape,would put your 200 sma weekly back in play,currently 9127.

      1. Only thing that is in the back of my mind is ……. Mister cynical again….but it’s NFP on Friday…..very very often we get a strong rise going into NFP…….well we are more likely to get a strong rise from 16200 – 16300 area than from above 16500. Just have to see how it plays out but it’s happened so many times I can’t remember.

        1. Friday’s a lot of points away.
          NFP’s do inspire a rise when they’re good, which they have been recently, not something to hang your hat on though.
          Glad you escaped that long, you’ve made some good money hopping on this rally and holding, well done, don’t give it all back being pigheaded on the way down.

          1. Hi tmfp I just shorted the Dow at 88 and closed it again at 86…. I’m struggling holding shorts,should of held it bugger….

          2. Yes there are a few people talking this week Kuroda,BOJ Gov, is at 04.30 tomorrow morning and they will all want mkts up & with Oil back under 31 another story of something in the pipeline there could happen any minute 🙂 but if you trust the Techs then nobody seems to be anticipating much + at the moment,so without confirmation from Clarence Beeks seems early to be Long.

          3. Get used to it asap anstel, turn your monitor upside down and pretend it’s a long 🙂

            Seriously, pick the overbought highs like I said to practice on.
            And wtf you are trading a closed market when there’s two open……….but re: DOW fwiw IG’s tech view is a clean break of 16274 makes 16100 a target.

          4. Tmfp I’m not trading a closed Mkt I was talking about the run up in The Dow last night when it was open.

  6. Morning all,everybody Bearish,should be worrying,but City’ have net client exposure at 68% long,so Bearish it is.

  7. Morning all
    great bear chatroom, feel like hiding behind the rocky ridge.
    anybody got ig or other platforms % of shorts vs. longs ?
    so are we all looking for 5700, 200+ points. sounds good.
    platform down so just twidling my thumbs

    1. IG is 59% longs, but the American based Investing is only 29%.
      Would be interesting to run a comparison chart sentiment/price.
      They say that retail punters (us) are last in, first out.

      1. Hey Paul can I come and hide behind that rocky ridge with you…..I need to reload my rifle and clean my sights for later on so we can pick off some of these bears….. Trouble is there’s bloody loads of em…..and we don’t want to hit any of our friendly bears either……tmfp keep your head down because we are bloody crap shots :0)

  8. IG’s got a DAX clean break of 9600 as a All Hope is Lost signal.

    Has the makings of a melt down (further) day…..or a bear trap?

    1. Here I go again with my bloody feelings but you did say to speak out so I’m going too…….yes I think it’s a bloody bear trap….I really really do.

      2. No bear trap this I’m afraid anstel. Rubbish, PMI, oil on the way back down (despite yesterday report about China mopping up the cheap ones) etc etc. However you have been right for a fortnight and I’ve been wrong! Good luck matey and like tmfp says, don’t give it back!

        1. Thanks chippy and RJ……it’s this bloody tinfoil hat I’m wearing……I’ve been in positions before where all the charts ,all the fundamentals… Everything has indicated a sharp fall……..so muggins here took the appropriate correct position and promptly got shafted…..that’s why I have a problem going short sometimes.its like Nick says….expect the unexpected.

          2. I think I probably sold it to you anstel, pretty much a clear dead cat.
            Whatever you think about the market, why would you long there specifically?
            Took +12…

          3. You should watch The Big Short movie anstel. There is a lot of pain involved when holding a short position but once it starts to move in your favour, you will make money far more quickly than holding longs.

          4. anstel,So do you think this is a Bear trap just on news due/taking the cynical line ? last night looks like a Bull trap at the moment.

          5. tmfp hi I placed the long at 63 simple because the Dow bounced and indicated to me it could regain some ground…that’s the only reason…..RJ The Big Short……yeah……that very convienently fills people’s minds with big market crashes ….look on you tube……market crash 2016……it’s everywhere……..It’s going to crash I quite agree and when it does the money is in shorts yeah and yeah you make money much quicker…….that’s why they are called shorts…..you make money in a shorter time……and longs …..you make money but it takes longer……but coming back to the here and now…..I think we are getting bombarded with fear porn ……..The collapse is coming but I’m not certain it’s here yet……..just my thoughts RJ…..I could very well be completely wrong.like tmfp says we should trade what’s in front of us really I suppose.

          6. WSF ,yes looking at ydays strong rally on the Dow I think it was a short term bull trap but I bet you a PG Tips pyramid bag the Dow is back at 16500 area on the approach to NFP on Friday…..that’s when I’m thinking a Dow short might be a good shout.

          7. To add FWIW but I think Ftse will be back in the 6100 area by Friday about 12 noon.Might be a mile off but let’s just bloody see how this BS plays out.

          8. OK anstel, no more from me on that.
            I will never understand why a random movement on a low liquidity out of hours market (DOW’s just tracking the DAX) would inspire you into taking a position in a high liquidity open market.
            And I rarely say never.

          9. But is the Dow tracking the Dax tmfp? If you ask me the Dow is controlling the bloody lot…..I don’t have your experience tmfp,and I don’t have your knowledge of the markets,and I’m not trying to be a smart arse…….it’s just how it looks to me through my very limited experience….I’m only saying what I think because you said so……and it can be a bit intimidating to speak out for fear of looking like an idiot but hey I’ve got broad shoulders.

          10. Yes it is, anstel, read my lips, the DOW is SHUT.
            In the big picture, of course it is massively influential, but not when most of its traders are asleep.
            Anyway, your 63 is in profit now, so I guess that makes it alright….

          11. tmfp I’m not trying to be a smart arse here and I’m only suggesting a possibility so please don’t chew my head off here!..I know the Dow is shut……but is it not possible that it could be being controlled by some algorithm even though it’s not being actively traded ?

          12. Case in point the Dow is going up slightly now before the Dax even moved……..please don’t take this as a criticism at all,,,,,it isn’t,,,,,,it’s just what I’m seeing,and I’m just talking to you as if you where sat here in the room…….just sharing thoughts that’s all.

          13. anstel,see what you mean,just depends on the time frame,I guess you are looking at last weeks lows and the day chart as a base and there is a lot of room for for any direction to fit,got stuff I want to long for later in the year,although I reckon the referendum stuff will hold the U.k back a bit.

          14. The DOW price is indeed being controlled by an algorithm at the moment, inside the spread betting computers. There are people trading it and there will be minor variances, but the underlying market is closed.
            That’s why serious TA analysis doesn’t include out of cash hours trading, the data is meaningless because it’s not actually happening.

            Actually it’s all controlled by David Icke’s lizards playing lizard chess…
            I give up now. 🙂

  9. just a general general platform question?

    Do anybody trade CFD,s, if so what is the difference from spreadbetting.
    Any advantages?
    Is there anybody trading directly on the exchange – Liffe/CME etc?

    1. Yes I trade CFDs Paul…….here’s the reason……if I make a capital loss on my trading at the end of the tax year I can claim the loss …..the way I looked at it was this……..this trading is very very hard to learn so Im more likely to take losses while I’m learning and I don’t want to have to pay tax on earned income to get the loss back….if I can’t get it back through trading…….it just increases your losses.Spreadbetting is Tax free so you don’t pay tax on any profit but conversely you can’t claim a capital loss either……my theory is learn with CFDs then you can claim capital looses back……if you make gains you have all you capital losses and you capital gain tax allowance to go at before you make a taxable gain in any tax year…..when we or if we exceed the CGT threshold and have recovered all our previous capital losses in any one tax year then it’s beneficial to flip to Spreadbetting for the remainder of that tax year……next year after flip back to CFDs to use your CGT allowance and hedge any losses against tax as before.

      1. Thanks anstel
        Sounds good, but HMRC does not consider spreadbetting as tax free when it is your 1st income.
        But from a technical point of view – to trading is there any difference, regarding margin, stop , overnight etc.

        Also is there anybody trading Directly on the Exchange?

        1. Is that right Paul,I didn’t know that thanks,I thought Spreadbetting was Tax free completely……oh well don’t think its goin to bother me just yet LOL :0)

          1. I think there are some subtle differences .i think you can trade 50p on Spreadbetting with city minimum but with CFDs it £1 not sure what else.

  10. Morning all, interesting the Dow has had a sniff to see what the reaction is near 16235, failed rally off 5950 to 5966 in ftse and possible failed bounce of dax at 9600 to 9640. Maximum short ftse at 5962 to see if 5950 breaks, targeting 5920 quickly. GL

        1. If I were you, I would have held that long form 603 may be take half profit and hold. I’m looking at 665-680 a possible area to short 684 being 61% retrace. I will watch what the price does there.

          1. There wasn’t a half profit, it was £1pp. Just a punt. Otherwise, yes, I would have taken half.
            That’s exactly my reasoning, so GL, hope it gets there.

  13. BP shares down 8% today, Shell downgraded overnight, it does make you wonder what the carnage would look like if we did have sub $20 oil like Nick is predicting. stop on short 5962s moved down to b/e

    1. Plenty of room for a big bounce in BP shares then?….looks like energy shares have taken 28 points off the index according to Reuters for whatever that’s worth!…Isn’t BP the third biggest in the Ftse index just behind HSBC? I’m a bit behind on that so if you could get me up to speed on the top company’s I would appreciate it cheers.

  15. Anstel
    Thanks about the cfd / spreadbetting minimum amounts.
    So really not much difference then.
    I think anybody trading less than £5 or £10 per point are really not doing justice to themselves.
    I traded £1 for a long time and what a waste of time that was.
    Platform still not up.
    i think i,ll take an early lunch

    1. The stake size is irrelevant Paul, you either make money or you don’t % roi wise.
      I restarted index trading on small stakes and have increased it incrementally based on my accumulated capital, still maintaining a fixed relationship between the two.

      At the other end of the scale, I know Chinese traders in Bitcoin who max out their credit cards and then immensely leverage it, looking for the big one. The record for being completely wiped out stands at about 30 seconds.

      1. tmfp
        i beg to differ here.
        I am not endorsing placing 10£ stake on a £100 a/c. that needs stupidity.
        but from a purely numerical point of view – in relation to trading – would anybody fret at placing a stop of 50 points on a £1 /point. this however leads to unrealistic trading practices which will never improve your trading.
        i am not talking of the casual ” for the fun trader”, who buys a lottery ticket but anybody who logs in here or spends a good part of the day trading.
        lets say he is the most incredible trader and places 100% winning trades, whats his profit daily – £50.
        being more realistic the average trader would spend 5 days a week with little to show for it.
        in day trading we are after all trying to catch a move of – what 20 – 40 points ( most days). So trading practice has to be geared for this and I just do not see how a small stake of less than £5 / £10 is going to teach you anything.
        you got to be realistic and take trading as a business.
        can’t run a taxi based on ” i only do taxi fare runs of less then 100 yds ” !!

        1. Fair enough, but to continue the taxi analogy, you start off with a cheap car until the business proves itself, you don’t max yourself out on a brand new Merc on the never never in the hope you’ll be busy.
          I came back to derivatives with a small amount of money that I wouldn’t miss and started scalping. As you say, it takes a while to build it up but at the same time that’s a good learning and proving period, knowing all the time you’re one bad run away from being wiped out..
          Personally I think 20-40 pt moves are the hardest to get right, between devil and deep blue sea.
          Scalp and watch, or overview and forget.

          1. tmfp
            i agree with most of what you say, but i think you will agree that it is very difficult to transition from the “pit” to a ” computer chart based ” trader.
            two very different animals and you don’t handle a tiger the same as a pussycat.
            so all i am saying is sitting for 8 hours placing £ 1 /point is like trying to learn to handle a tiger by spending your time with a cat.
            small – medium – large as you said earlier is meaningless, a tiger is a tiger.

          2. Sure, I am a pit trader through and through and I think my average profit per trade is about 7 points, but they all add up.
            Trying to run some longer term “real” trades at the mo (a luxury only available because of scalping), but finding it difficult, as it involves overnight holding and bigger stops, and I like my sleep too much.

    2. It really depends on the account size and how much you are willing to risk. This will vary person to person. But as account grows, there is always a temptation to increase the size of trades in relation to the growth of the account. Who wouldn’t? But I think this is where psychology and the need to reign yourself in comes into play. Do you guys make liveable income through this?

          2. You are brave in holding. I nearly slipped a couple of times. Had half before reaching 660 to be on safe side. Appreciate your advise, thanks.

  17. Just on a daft note,,,,,because I like being daft …..but I wonder if I can get a head up display on my car windscreen with a 5min Ftse chart,,,,I’m getting cabin fever here and a nice little drive out would be nice and I can keep an eye on my 63 without getting my hand slapped from the fun police for checking my phone :0)

      1. Think I will thanks chippy,it’s crap at the moment and I’m getting bored…..catch you all later and Good Luck everyone.

  18. Sold my Puts, happy days, going to run this VIX and I think, if we see any bounce above the ’70’s let some more cash go. Could get caught in a trap but am getting more rabid by the minute.

  19. Looking a bit noon bearish, especially if DAX breaks 40, another spec short at 55 for test of lows 10 either way for the moment

  20. What do our resident DAXers think about the importance of 9640, and the possible effect of it breaking?
    Like now…

    1. tmfp,

      Not very clear. I was waiting for 684 to short, didn’t get it but I don’t want to short it now as FTSE is holding 950. I will rather wait for Dow open or 600 to break on Dax for a visit to 527. Now on the sidelines

  21. tmfp
    watching you trade …. gives a perspective to scalping, an on – off switch brought about by a trigger. your 7 points every hour, a bit slow to the new alogs traders now , but superfast for some of us.
    you been clear with your trades and that is helpful. i’ve learnt a lot from it, but with a lot of tweaking to suit my style.
    my style is wait till the market shows its hand , then go for it. a lot of times i still hesitate and the dealer collects the cards before i have a chance to place my trade.
    hopefully posting my trades has been helpful to others, and i felt that mentioning the trade stake was intergral to this,
    anyway – will not annoy you anymore

    1. No worries, believe it or not I am interested in other people’s approach and views, just because I’m old doesn’t mean I’m not willing to learn.
      I’m not just here to give anstel a hard time.
      GL.

      Finally, here’s my re test of the lows, off to pull the trigger 🙂

  23. DOW opening soon then, IG expecting 315ish, would put us around low 50’s I reckon.
    Big support numbers in play with DAX at 9600 and DOW 16275, we’ve already broken ours at 950, maybe leading the way down?
    Took out my intraday shorts on this dip, still see 60+ as a reasonable re-entry level, more downside potential if/when those numbers break, maybe not today first try though.

    1. Seems to me that big figure breaks are the ones that are taking a bit of breaking, 4-5 go’s at 6,000 yesterday before the rally, the other week 5900 held for a few days then broke properly. It didn’t get to the ’70’s so all I’ve got is VIX unless they can give it a run up.

        1. Yes Sir and thank you for pointing it out (VIX that is, not the profit). Would assume therefore I owe you virtual beer.

  25. need Dax to retake 9640 with some conviction-funny, I have the same fear of being long that anstel has of being short!

    1. and no bounce 🙁 sitting on hands, comforted by blue ink on this morning’s 19 short

      DAX through 9600, DOW through 275, how low can they go?

  27. Afternoon Guys
    Bit late again !
    BP’s definitely put the boot in here it seems down 8.5%.
    (BP) Possibly a bit overextended on Friday.
    Friday’s low was 5914 & 5927 is 61.8 % Retracement.
    This pattern still seems good
    http://i.imgur.com/MCKdev9.png
    So “C” is 5898

          3. Actually, the 88 stop would just have held but wtf, catching knives…
            We do this quite often, a big down day, call a bottom mid afternoon and come back in the morning to another chunk missing.

        1. I’m looking at that U formation @ 14.49-14.57 on the ftse as well and thinking the same about 5888, but the ftse’s held its retrace nearly whereas the DAX is on its way back down.
          I wouldn’t trust it for a long unless 565 has some other significance.

          1. I had it has a resistance area in my chart from the past price action, it bounced off from that level only to stop me out. Next level is 527 and 466.

    1. Brent bounced off its downtrend perfectly in high 36’s, just like I said 🙂
      It’s difficult to make much of a case for the long side anywhere, that’s for sure.

      1. Maybe 5850 for a bit of a let up in the selling? That would imply DOW going below 16100 and breaking uptrend (of sorts) though.

    2. Iran targets exports of 2.3 million barrels of oil a day
      ————–
      saying all this – us still looks positive

    1. p.s. I’ll leave tmfp guessing if its £1 or £2 or £5 or £9.5 or………………… per point………

  33. And MHH time, not the same without senu, where’s he got to?
    Short covering V last knockings liquidation…I think anything up near 25 is worth a short into the close and wouldn’t like to pick a long level.

    2. I’ve got to cut out these anticipatory specs, negative balance on them recently, pissing away hard earned points unnecessarily. Meant I didn’t have the bullets to fire at 25 for a few.
      Undecided about what to do with the +100 short, I don’t think this current strength will last but don’t want to sit here all evening or leave it in overnight….
      decisions decisions…give it an hour I think

          1. It was just a silly little “hunch” at that particular moment for a flash sell off. Sometimes they work, but not lately.

      2. That’s better, out of the 15 for +12, covers the -10 on the 03, and leaving the big one with a 935 stop, might have a peek later too.

    1. looks like its going to close me out
      but got to follow rules – thats why we make them
      though leaves a bitter taste when blue all goes away
      still just in – lets see

    2. Hi jim,
      that would be me…… cant hide anywhere with all these bears around
      US trend is still intact since it turned, today looks more like a over-reaction to
      oil shares, didn’t the market expect this ?
      oil halves over past 6 months, doh!! .
      thats my fundamental piece for the day……………..or was that watching too much of Donald….

        1. I reckon it’s just a temporary blip this, famous last words,it’s just a little warm spell that has brought the brown furry things out looking to something to nibble…Can’t beat a nice bit of bear shooting :0)

  37. Blimey, just done Day Trading. out of short at ’03 and sold vix. Don’t think it will but as mentioned earlier it struggles to break big figures. Limits in to short at 5925, 5950 and so on. See you later

    1. I was just being envious about your 6100ish short from yesterday Argyle, wondering how long you could resist the temptation to take a profit.

      1. Took it at 5903 this afternoon. Couldn’t hold any longer. 195 points. If only every trade could be like that.

  41. Bollocks look at this lot bloody carnage only been away a few hours! Right Paul time to come out from behind the ridge and bag a few of these pesky bears :0)

    1. Bloody hell the hourly chart on the Dow doesn’t give me any encouragement just yet with the 200 SMA at 16105 area.so a 350 – 370 point drop on the Dow in 20 hours someone’s having a laugh! WTI was just over 31usd this morning better find out what it is now next.

  42. Well chaps, I think I am the most p**sed off I’ve ever been. Having been calling the short for a bit, finally pluck up the courage to have a go then manage to only hang on to around 70 of the 170 odd points on offer! Might have to tape Silent Witness as I’m off down the pub!
    See you tomorrow…..in the 5700’s?

    2. Chippy if you think FTSE will be in 5700s tomorrow I suggest you cease trading. A bit of a bounce to mid 5900 s first before more down side.

      1. Thanks Argyle, it was more of a repeating joke from tmfp than a serious strategy. I have, however, got selling limits as it goes up.
        Cheers and thanks again.

    1. I’ve got a Dax that is……don’t even ask……. Took a -63 pts on my long from 63 didn’t think for one minute we would be down here…….thinking of putting it back to honest.

      1. Tell you what….when you put that short on Ftse from 6106 on Friday I thought you would have a few problems on it to be honest……little did I know.!!

          3. Never quite got my head around how swing and momentum trading are different really.
            But yeah, these big days I’ve been doubling my basic opening stake, scalping half and running the balance in search of greater riches than my usual 10’s etc.
            Worked ok today, now pondering exit strategy should limit or stop not be hit.

        2. I listen to Nick and tmfp only Anstel. In my opinion they are right more often than wrong. Nick for the bigger picture and tmfp for the immediate timeframe. They have made me a lot of money.

          1. 🙂 Go on,now 200 is looking like R,you might as well see it through to ASX since you are here anyway,Wentworth Series 2 on 5* after midnight and Kuroda with some light entertainment at 02.30.

          3. Your on form tmfp but be careful with the sex bit on a full stomach…….You could get awful indigestion.

  45. I remember some years ago there was a bit of talk in the media saying we only had a limited amount of oil left in the world….while obviously this is true and it’s a declining resourse the recent price drop would not suggest this to be the case….I mean it wasn’t long ago really that oil was 100 usd a barrel…….now we have used even more of it up…..and we have more vehicles on the road…….and yet it’s less than one third the price…….obviously oil has a lot of additional uses.

    1. Yes,I remember Peak Oil,bit pathetic that it is actually clean water that is getting harder to obtain.

    2. That’s “Peak Oil” you’re referring to I think. The theory behind it still stands.
      This current situation is a huge game of poker between the Saudis/US and the Russian bloc/RoW. Everything else is collateral damage, exacerbated by the poor global economy.

  46. A big thank you to Nick and tmfp. Between them they have made me quite a bit of money. Nick gives the bigger picture and tmfp the right now picture. They clearly have a lot of knowledge and experience. Users of this forum would be well advised to sign up to Nicks paid service and copy tmfp with his scalping activities. Anstel, you really need to listen to tmfp before you lose a lot of money.

          2. Fair enough, I’m short too on the 150 break but don’t trust these yanks too much. I’m looking for ~100 to cover this and my ftse short because I think that’s enough downside for the mo, and the support that’s supposed to be there will hold.
            Just beware one of those totally authentic +200 closing hour rallies they pull out of the hat.

  47. Closed At 16135. 25 points thanks to tmfp. Have put a small long order in at 16004. Will check at 20.55 to see if we are in play or delete.

  48. Nearly made it that time 108, I wonder….
    The main reason for hanging about is my day long ftse short and I’m out at 70, I think 149 points is more than enough to be happy with.
    Running the token DOW short to the close, limit 095, stop b/e.

    1. …and it’s goodnight from me, thinking to buy a further dip in the morning.
      Lets see how Asia does first, China bearish (NYears risk off) and Japan bullish (Free stuff).

  49. Hi All,

    Just wanted to check in. Had a very long day in the office, just got home. Anyway, got burnt with a few attempts at long, but when it broke that 6975 ish area, switched short and still holding, all three showing blue ink, but didnt get home in time to close, so Im stuck between a rock and a hard place. Agree on a bounce for tomorrow, but will continue futher downside and bot of relief on Friday. Seeing us clise the week around 5800’s

  50. Oh and for the record, looking at the more recent downward channel, that 5200 from tmfp looks very inviting, might get there before the autumn 🙂

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