NFP today and bulls in charge still with 7300 7324 7350 resistance | 7270 7240 support

NFP today and bulls in charge still with 7300 7324 7350 resistance | 7270 7240 support

FTSE 100 Analysis | Trading Signals | Forecast | Prediction | FTSE 100 Outlook | Trading help

Yesterday saw the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates. The Bank’s MPC has opted to maintain rates at a record low of 0.1pc, defying market expectations for an increase to 0.25pc. The pound slumped 1pc following the announcement.

What is did mean was a decent bounce on the FTSE100 from the 7250 level and I am still running a portion of that long.

Asian stocks dipped Friday and U.S. futures were steady as a global equity rally paused. Sovereign bonds held gains after investors scaled back expectations about monetary-policy tightening to quell inflation.

Shares fell in Japan and Hong Kong, where developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and its Hong Kong-listed units were suspended from trading in the latest sign of stress from China’s troubled property sector. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and European futures fluctuated after tech shares led Wall Street to a record high.
Treasuries and the dollar held a climb. A surprise Bank of England move to hold interest rates spurred a global surge in bonds as investors reviewed the outlook for borrowing costs. Interest-rate futures had priced in two quarter-point Federal Reserve increases in 2022 but shifted the second one toward 2023. Jerome Powell this week said the Fed can be patient on hikes.

Hitting Pause 
A global stock rally looked set to pause in Asia amid a tumble in bond yields, as investors pared expectations about the pace of monetary-policy tightening to quell inflation. Futures for Japan and Hong Kong fell, while Australia’s edged up. Tech shares led a Wall Street climb to all-time highs. Corporate highlights included an earnings beat from Airbnb, a weak Uber forecast and a plunge in Peloton shares as a pandemic sales boom fizzles. Treasuries jumped after the Bank of England defied expectationsby holding interest rates, spurring investors to review the outlook for borrowing costs. The dollar climbed and crude oil extended a drop.

FTSE 100 live outlook prediction analysis for 5th November 2021

The bulls still can’t crack 7300 despite the rise yesterday and in fact today we have a cluster of resistance levels there today along with R1. As such we may well see a stall of any rise here once again especially as its Friday and ahead of the weekend.  Seasonality also has the S&P dropping a bit next week so we may well start to see the rises falter a bit. The fear/greed indicator is also still on extreme greed (82/100) so usually a sign to start being a bit more cautious with the longs.

Initial support for the FTSE100 today is at the 200ema at 7267 with daily support at 7237 below that. We could well see an initial dip get bought up today though as the S&P may want to print that 4700 level ahead of the weekend. But the usual Friday caveat applies – be a bit cautious with the trades today!

Below 7237 and the bears may well start to feel a bit empowered (or just a bog standard bear trap!) and drop it down to sub 7200, however we have the bottom of the Raffs at 7210 area to hold the line. I think that we may well see a bit higher early next week though so down pile into the shorts just yet.

Above the 7300 area then the bulls will be looking at 7320 for R2, and the daily line at 7326, with the 7350 level still on the radar as well. Not sure they will be able to push that high today though and I am expecting a stutter at the 7300 level again.

On the S&P 4693 is R1 and 4702 is R2 – we may see both of these levels tested, but that higher one may well prove a tough nut to crack for the US bulls, especially ahead of the weekend.

The DAX40 looks more bearish and the 2 hour chart has resistance at the 16078 level for today. If we were to rise there then a drop off from that looks like it will play out – probably with a bit of profit taking ahead of the weekend. Support is 15980 – as we have the green 2h coral here and as yet untested since the colour change to confirm the bullish trend.

So, might be a bit of a mixed bag today. Still running some of yesterdays long with the stop at 7260 though any early weakness may see this tagged. Watching 7237 for support though and 7301 for resistance. Good luck today and have a great weekend.