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9th February 2018

Todays discussion

Morning all.

A rising wedge since overnight in the US futures suggest bias tongue downside.  Europeans seem to be waiting again for the US open.  That's where the action continues to be.

This week has taken quite a bit of adjusting, simply because the moves are so big compared to what we had been having.  Less leverage goes an awful lot further now.

 

 

 

I’m bullish here whilst above 7100 for a run towards 7300. The way price is trading now means the vix will fall on the US open and that will probably trigger some buying. Yesterday’s move is all technical, sell vol and long stocks being unwound so some hedge funds are shorting. That’s why a fall in vol is key as those shorts will dry up for now if it does

Either way equally possible really, after all it's just a sideways consolidation with a slight upward bias.  It can pop a little at the open, though the 100 hr has kept price contained since the breakdown.  And it's not terribly far away.  A mere 400 points on the Dow, which isn't a lot these days ;0)

 

 

US appears to have broken the wedge down

Quote from Cowboy on 9th February 2018, 12:39 pm

US appears to have broken the wedge down

Yeah I’m really not sure now.. when I wrote that it was 7160 and we just tanked 50 points on nothing. 7100 is key.. but vol has definitely been lower today and I think that’s a bullish sign.. like why break support on lower vol? Confusing

Difficult days.  I think no one knows where to step next, quite frankly.  It's going to be choppy.  Lots of whipsawing.

Take a quick look at the 2yr T-note.  After the spike on the big sell off, it has since formed a triangle.  Potential sharp move about to happen, and what ever that might be will probably cue stocks.

Quote from Cowboy on 9th February 2018, 1:35 pm

Take a quick look at the 2yr T-note.  After the spike on the big sell off, it has since formed a triangle.  Potential sharp move about to happen, and what ever that might be will probably cue stocks.

Bullish or bearish set up? Tbh I think yields will stabilise rather than shoot up, but long term heading much higher and going to remain a thorn in equities side

Yes, yields all of a sudden are the new talking point, even though they've been moving steadily higher for months.  The stock market just seems to have suddenly woken up one morning and spotted it.

So now that the Dow has made first target at the base of the rising wedge, and bounced back to the breakdown point, I'm wondering about a re-sell?