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4th December 2017

Todays market discussion

Todays post here

Looks like will have to wait for some direction later. Expecting pound surge later this week on irish border agreement.

Short from 7345 but its not a conviction short anymore its an im an asshole get me out of here short and likely to bail at BE if theres a slight pullback which finds support.

I've taken the hit and flipped long...

Quite a muted start on the FTSE

Good morning. It's been not bad. Scalped Dax longs 12982 and 12997 to 13008 approx. in the morning. Then I didn't take another long 13017, then short 13017 then just now long 13017 although it looks like a DB. Staying out for now. I don't feel any direction. Slightly on a long side.

Good news: I totally recovered my loss and slightly in a profit. It took 3 weeks though (from 14th November as I closed the loss on 13th November) so conclude once again: it is better to cut small losses rather than big losses. I cut a medium loss so managed to recover faster. What the loss really means: it means it will take you a certain amount of time to recover. The smaller the loss the faster you recover. If you have a smaller loss not only you can recover but also go ahead.

Wrote in my diary (for those who are interested): When you close a losing trade which made you suffer, brought to despare, kneeled you down - you experience the feeling of cheer joy. Joy that you closed the loss? Yes, as you suffered. When you close just a simple loss at the start you don't experience the feelings above because you didn't experience the pain and all that and so you feel anger, frustration but not Joy!

You need to suffer to reach the Joy! SL is the source of joy and freedom which you don't realize until the price won't make you suffer.

And one more thing: after the price pushes through your virtual SL - you don't know when to stop. This is a problem, you guess maybe it will come back, and when it does it feels it's not enough to b/e yet and the price pulls back away again and you think: I should have closed then and then you feel the price is about to break the maximum. And then you stuck.

 

Longs average open:

EURGBP 8909

Dax 13050

S&P 2640

Nas100 6358

Dow 23877

 

 

They won't sort the Irish border problem this week.  I expect them to bluff it and move on, saying there is better agreement and they'll continue to work on the details.  The Irish demand that either Northern Ireland or the whole of the UK remain in the customs union will not be met, and they know this.  Once they give up on playing that card, they'll move on.  But make no mistake, the border problem won't be easily resolved, and could hassle the process right to the end.

Currency traders will now be moving focus to the next hurdle - trade.  What do we know?  UK wants preferential access to EU markets.  And there's not a puffs chance of the EU granting that.

 

 

I'm still short. Sold more on the rally and deleveraging Friday's position here at 7335. With the weekend gap I was exposed as I couldn't exit for my usual 10-15 point loss, so needed to de-risk. Always felt confident we'd gap close attempt though. See US markets as about to sell the news as they're well outside their upper bollinger band. Set up for a 2% pullback still before xmas rally

Quote from Cowboy on 4th December 2017, 12:08 pm

They won't sort the Irish border problem this week.  I expect them to bluff it and move on, saying there is better agreement and they'll continue to work on the details.  The Irish demand that either Northern Ireland or the whole of the UK remain in the customs union will not be met, and they know this.  Once they give up on playing that card, they'll move on.  But make no mistake, the border problem won't be easily resolved, and could hassle the process right to the end.

Currency traders will now be moving focus to the next hurdle - trade.  What do we know?  UK wants preferential access to EU markets.  And there's not a puffs chance of the EU granting that.

 

 

50/50 chance of it today according to a European MEP which has caused the Sterling ramp. We should start playing hard ball, we're the 5th largest economy in the world and for many of these countries we're their largest export market including Ireland. If they don't give us what we want then we should shaft them

Taking more off at 23

Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 1:17 pm

Taking more off at 23

You are sh1t hot Mcg

Quote from anstel on 4th December 2017, 1:18 pm
Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 1:17 pm

Taking more off at 23

You are sh1t hot Mcg

Lol thanks.. just play the charts and manage risk. Always have to cash profits regularly, better to keep taking 20-50 points off the table than looking for 200+ in this environment. The market calls are secondary to that. Reckon they might sell the news on both EU trade talks and tax reform. So that means FTSE probably going to outperform with a weaker Sterling. Still think there's more weakness before a year end ramp

Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 1:33 pm
Quote from anstel on 4th December 2017, 1:18 pm
Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 1:17 pm

Taking more off at 23

You are sh1t hot Mcg

Lol thanks.. just play the charts and manage risk. Always have to cash profits regularly, better to keep taking 20-50 points off the table than looking for 200+ in this environment. The market calls are secondary to that. Reckon they might sell the news on both EU trade talks and tax reform. So that means FTSE probably going to outperform with a weaker Sterling. Still think there's more weakness before a year end ramp

tmfp who used to be on here used to say "it's better to be a busy ant than a dosing Ox.... Which is exactly what you are saying......bollox to this I'm off to KFC :0)

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

Dow is a bubble, pretty much impossible to trade well. If you short you get screwed, if you go long and take profits (which is what you should do given nobody knows when it will turn) it runs away from you. Just doesn't offer any decent risk reward set ups for entries. It's outperformed Europe by a massive 15% since summer. A corporate tax cut has definitely already been priced in. This is a blow off top and the reversal will be sharp when it comes. Every time it's looked like going down there's been the tax chatter to keep it up. Now that's done what's there to keep it up when the good news is priced?

Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

And just to add who says there will be s Santa Rally??? Just because it happens more often than not it might actually not materialise this year? We just don't know what will happen....

Quote from anstel on 4th December 2017, 2:43 pm
Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

And just to add who says there will be s Santa Rally??? Just because it happens more often than not it might actually not materialise this year? We just don't know what will happen....

There will be one, but as ever timing is key. It happens for specific reasons.. institutional clients are told to avoid trading last two weeks of December so that means volume is light and there's a lack of natural sellers. Which then means it moves more based on what traders are doing, which is obviously more short term in nature. Everyone talks santa rally so traders look to buy and it feeds on itself. The thing is.. it can go down quite a bit before the rally kicks in. And it's also quite common to see selling start last couple of days of the month as people 'lock in profits for the year'. That often leads to a Jan correction. I'm still thinking something like 7200-7440 then down in Jan

May will concede anyting to get process done. Its not even a negotiation.

Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 2:39 pm
Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

Dow is a bubble, pretty much impossible to trade well. If you short you get screwed, if you go long and take profits (which is what you should do given nobody knows when it will turn) it runs away from you. Just doesn't offer any decent risk reward set ups for entries. It's outperformed Europe by a massive 15% since summer. A corporate tax cut has definitely already been priced in. This is a blow off top and the reversal will be sharp when it comes. Every time it's looked like going down there's been the tax chatter to keep it up. Now that's done what's there to keep it up when the good news is priced?

They like bubbles in America, don't they? The fall will be massive, on Friday was a taster.

Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 3:37 pm
Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 2:39 pm
Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

Dow is a bubble, pretty much impossible to trade well. If you short you get screwed, if you go long and take profits (which is what you should do given nobody knows when it will turn) it runs away from you. Just doesn't offer any decent risk reward set ups for entries. It's outperformed Europe by a massive 15% since summer. A corporate tax cut has definitely already been priced in. This is a blow off top and the reversal will be sharp when it comes. Every time it's looked like going down there's been the tax chatter to keep it up. Now that's done what's there to keep it up when the good news is priced?

They like bubbles in America, don't they? The fall will be massive, on Friday was a taster.

Most Americans are very emotional and love their stocks. Same ones who expected a 50% collapse last February now see endless upside. It's like they just project out what's currently happening forever

Quote from Mcgcapital on 4th December 2017, 2:56 pm
Quote from anstel on 4th December 2017, 2:43 pm
Quote from Jack 2 on 4th December 2017, 2:10 pm

I don't understand, is Dow really mental? It's not even a Christmas rally yet, where will Dow go when the rally actually kicks in? To the sky? 25000?

And just to add who says there will be s Santa Rally??? Just because it happens more often than not it might actually not materialise this year? We just don't know what will happen....

There will be one, but as ever timing is key. It happens for specific reasons.. institutional clients are told to avoid trading last two weeks of December so that means volume is light and there's a lack of natural sellers. Which then means it moves more based on what traders are doing, which is obviously more short term in nature. Everyone talks santa rally so traders look to buy and it feeds on itself. The thing is.. it can go down quite a bit before the rally kicks in. And it's also quite common to see selling start last couple of days of the month as people 'lock in profits for the year'. That often leads to a Jan correction. I'm still thinking something like 7200-7440 then down in Jan

Good informations Thx Mcg....well we are back under 7350 again........doesn't want to break above seemingly due to cable strength....

Interesting events this afternoon.  Foster has had to step up and do the PM's job for her i.e. defending the need for the UK as a whole to set its own laws and frameworks after brexit.  I suspect the she put Mrs Foster on the spot today, putting the blame for the breakdown on the DUP, to save May's own political skin.  Disgraceful for a self-proclaimed unionist PM.