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1st December 2017

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Todays Market discussion.

Todays Post here

Short FTSE from 7346 yesterday and patience shold be rewarded here with a drop under 7300 later once the new month bounce has passed, surely there will be some profit-taking next week?

The DAX is right on major support at 12900 but not buying it. That may change later. Hoping for a drop to 12500 here next week. but its just hope.

Anyone noticed the candles on FXCM Marketscope are incorrect today?

 

Sold the opening spike to 7340. See 7200 next week so holding for that

Cant see why it shouldnt drop next week and expecting test 7240 sooner rather than later, then 7200.

 

Went long last night at 14 and 21 morning rise started at 4.30 gathered pace after seven.....I hedged short at 301 out 94 now long again...thank Mcg for your comments last night.

I have big concerns here for FTSE to be honest.. can see sub 7000 in January. We have flattening moving averages, Sterling maybe about to breakout given it's bullish trend and the Dow looks like a blowoff top. What happens if the Dow starts pulling back 5%+? Definitely possible given we've gone up in a straight line about 20% on what's pretty much false narratives. Global synchronised recovery, tax reform curing cancer etc.. if you look at it, growth and rates have been in a downward trend for decades and all that's happened is debt has increased. Yanks seem to think that this heralds a new era of higher growth but it's unlikely.. basic economics says multiplier effects are higher when wealth is spread out as the poor have a lower savings ratio so they stimulate the economy more than the rich so just buy financial assets. The day of reckoning for this market will come. I think FTSE has topped out already

I think when we get a day like yday we get some sort of mental paralysis that instills a fear mentality into our heads...likewise when it's overly bullish it creates euphoria and the buy mentality.Mcg I notice you are very sharp in your execution ....I'm trying to be....some days I have a mind like water and other days I get kind of stuck in a mindset....do you eat anything special to keep your mind so alert and flexible....I think diet has a lot to do with the performance discipline of trading....?

Quote from Mcgcapital on 1st December 2017, 1:21 pm

I have big concerns here for FTSE to be honest.. can see sub 7000 in January. We have flattening moving averages, Sterling maybe about to breakout given it's bullish trend and the Dow looks like a blowoff top. What happens if the Dow starts pulling back 5%+? Definitely possible given we've gone up in a straight line about 20% on what's pretty much false narratives. Global synchronised recovery, tax reform curing cancer etc.. if you look at it, growth and rates have been in a downward trend for decades and all that's happened is debt has increased. Yanks seem to think that this heralds a new era of higher growth but it's unlikely.. basic economics says multiplier effects are higher when wealth is spread out as the poor have a lower savings ratio so they stimulate the economy more than the rich so just buy financial assets. The day of reckoning for this market will come. I think FTSE has topped out already

Just read this Mcg and I agree....next year could be very bearish.....thing is to keep the wheels of Industry moving we need capital and labour......without capital labour goes away ( not my words a wise Anton Kriels ) but he's right if the banks let the Market go the economy,houses the lot will tank , redundancies ,1929 again....it just depends what the central banks have decided because as you know they run the show.......I do think it will be bearish soon  but how much it will decline I dont know ........when that's the million dollar Question...

Here you go guys .......Discipline ....enjoy.      https://youtu.be/Q23Exmnio8s

Oh it's not working will retry...

Quote from anstel on 1st December 2017, 1:46 pm

Oh it's not working will retry...

Monthly chart bearish engulfing candle and today we broke last months low. So may be a few good days later in month but I think FTSE set to give bears an easier time than bulls.

Quote from anstel on 1st December 2017, 1:24 pm

I think when we get a day like yday we get some sort of mental paralysis that instills a fear mentality into our heads...likewise when it's overly bullish it creates euphoria and the buy mentality.Mcg I notice you are very sharp in your execution ....I'm trying to be....some days I have a mind like water and other days I get kind of stuck in a mindset....do you eat anything special to keep your mind so alert and flexible....I think diet has a lot to do with the performance discipline of trading....?

Haha all about the KFCs, they keep you on edge. I'd say firstly it's all about defence first then the profits will come. Basically have to put macro views to one side when trading. As I've just written I think there's a big collapse coming at some point but that's not very helpful when trading given I've thought that for the last couple of years. So basically every day go in knowing how much you can lose. For me if I lose 30 points in one day I'm done for the day. Leverage should be in proportion to the account so as you make profits it increases slowly over time. Those two things help keep the emotion out of it. Then next it's about entries... so I try and wait for set ups on the charts to trade against. It's important because if you get in at the inflection point and it doesn't do what you expect then you can take your loss straight away and get out. So broadly speaking trying to look for trades where I can put an 8-15 point stop and get out. If you enter too early or whatever what happens is this: 1. Market goes to the actual level you should be trading against and you're already 10-15 points offside. 2. The level doesn't hold so it's a dud.. goes through 10 points to where your stop should be. 3. Then you're 25 points offside and the loss feels a little uncomfortable so you wait hoping it recovers. 4. As support breaks it accelerates another 20-30 points quite quickly and before you know it you're 50 points offside and then just holding and hoping. It's easy for it to happen.. the key is the entry and ability to cut out when it doesn't do what you expect. Sometimes it's frustrating as it doesn't work out. Like last night I took a 5 point loss on longs and that would have been good for 30 points. But the market didn't rally when I expected so that was my signal to get out. It's always better to have a disciplined system than it is to hold and hope. Say you run something 200 points offside that's basically 20 goes at getting it right if you use stops

I bought 98's sold out for a few ticks, could not hold them, now crying into my lunch time vino

Short 31

Another sell set up at 7340s.. get out on break of 7350

Sold 42 as well

Quote from Mcgcapital on 1st December 2017, 2:51 pm

Another sell set up at 7340s.. get out on break of 7350

Thx Mcg I think the banks want it up but let's see.....can't fight the bankers.

Still short ?

Quote from roltrader on 1st December 2017, 4:09 pm

Still short ?

Yeah.. testing resistance again here

Reacting on GBP drop

Im not sure if this resistance will hold

It's really pushing it....

...Im assuming both are out ?

Quote from roltrader on 1st December 2017, 4:53 pm

...Im assuming both are out ?

Got stopped.. having another go though as don't think it holds

Yes, I bit the bullet and shorted 52, just scalped, cant seem to hold anything at the moment

I'm still holding at the moment...

Quote from anstel on 1st December 2017, 5:06 pm

I'm still holding at the moment...

I'm like a dog with two bones lol :0)

Quote from roltrader on 1st December 2017, 5:02 pm

Yes, I bit the bullet and shorted 52

Basically the resistance is 7340-50 area as it's held 4 times and is retesting the previous low at 7350. So obviously selling 7340s was the play. Just annoying when they squeeze up to take the stops so sometimes you have to go back in. One of my rules is I allow myself two attempts at getting on the same move.. if I was stopped this time (short from 51 stop 61) I'd be out. I'd rather get stopped and go back in rather than taking the stop off to maintain control

....AHHHHHH!!!! As usual take a profit too early !!

Well done Mc and Ans

Quote from Mcgcapital on 1st December 2017, 5:08 pm
Quote from roltrader on 1st December 2017, 5:02 pm

Yes, I bit the bullet and shorted 52

Basically the resistance is 7340-50 area as it's held 4 times and is retesting the previous low at 7350. So obviously selling 7340s was the play. Just annoying when they squeeze up to take the stops so sometimes you have to go back in. One of my rules is I allow myself two attempts at getting on the same move.. if I was stopped this time (short from 51 stop 61) I'd be out. I'd rather get stopped and go back in rather than taking the stop off to maintain control

Half off at 7307

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