No Confidence vote this evening | 6884 resistance still | 6808 support | learn to trade | Analysis

No Confidence vote this evening | 6884 resistance still | 6808 support | learn to trade | Analysis

12th December 2018

Stocks in Europe ended in a sea of green upon closing, with the FTSE 100 up 85.40 points, or 1.27pc to 6,806.94 while the FTSE 250 closed 160.95 points, or 0.92pc higher at 17,653.26. Volatility continued with the FTSE ranging 120 points yesterday as news flow, sentiment and technicals all battle each other. Am still watching the 6884 as the next resistance level.

In the eurozone the Paris CAC 40 was ahead 1.35pc to 4,806.20 and the Frankfurt DAX was 0.87pc up to 10,780.51.

As rumours circulated online about a possible no-confidence vote in Theresa May’s leadership, the pound plummeted to a fresh 20-month low against the dollar. It recovered slightly and it currently 0.29pc down against the dollar at $1.2523 and up 0.03pc against the euro at €1.1071.

Sterling has slumped lower again, retreating to fresh 20-month lows on the 1.25 level against the dollar amid reports that Conservative MPs have sent the requisite 48 letters to trigger a vote of no confidence. Cable found support again on 1.250 and has pared losses but it’s being tested and as long as chaos reigns it seems likely it will go at some stage.

The hardline Brexit ERG group is reported to have the required numbers – although this remains rumour at present and therefore we must treat the news with some degree of caution. Nevertheless this has a material impact for sterling positioning as it raises the stakes and political uncertainty. Meanwhile the SNP has piled pressure on Labour to call for a vote of no confidence – this may have prompted the ERG members to take control of the attack on May rather than handing the impetus to Labour.



FTSE 100 Trading Signals, Forecast and Prediction

Well this is another tricky one to call and I expect we will have another volatile session as the political chaos continues. I have 6884 as resistance initially and we may well see a drop form here ahead of the (possible) vote this evening. Reporters from the BBC, Buzzfeed and The Daily Telegraph say while there is no confirmation yet, senior government sources are confident a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May will now take place. This comes as Tory politician Owen Paterson submits his letter of no confidence. As such markets are going to be choppy!

The ASX200 had a bullish session, and we finished positively yesterday so if the bulls break above the 6885 level then a rise towards the next resistance at 6957 looks likely. We would of course also break above the 10 day Raff channel in that case, which we haven’t had for a while. Of course, a lot of this rise could just be short covering.

On bearish side, if the 6884 area remains as resistance then a drop down towards the pivot at 6808 looks pretty likely, and probably what will happen first thing. Below this I am looking at the 2 hour coral at 6743 (we are pretty volatile so there is quite a large gap between the various supports and resistances). We also have the key fib at 6766 so this 6740 to 6766 area should see a hold on any larger dip, bearish news not withstanding.

Over in the US the S&P was swinging around yesterday as well in light of possible trade deals again. 2616, 2603 support and 2680 resistance levels of note on that for today.

We are looking at tarting right on the fib resistance level at 6863 so the bears might capitalise on that and drive an initial dip down from that, though the 30min chart remains bullish for the moment.

I feel when its volatile and sentiment driven just to focus on the key levels and trade off them only, if they work then you can get a pretty good runner. So for today I am looking at 6884 and 6957 resistance, 6808, 6766, 6745 support. Stay nimble and good luck, hard trading conditions when its like this!

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