Good morning. That was a great FTSE trade yesterday in the end , and the bulls did try and break 6710, but couldn’t hold it, before the bears dragged things back down. European stocks snapped a five-day winning streak as declines in banks outweighed a surge in miners. Greek shares slid for a second day. We have a 10 point dividend applying to the FTSE today, so bear that in mind if you have a position open at the close.
I have set up a new service looking at buying levels for FTSE 100 shares – you can read more about it here. Each day you will receive an email if you join it, giving the buy levels for particular shares that are looking good for a rise.
US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as investors weighed comments from a Federal Reserve official ahead of U.S. employment data.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 141.24 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Interest-rate futures showed traders are raising the likelihood of an increase next month by the Federal Reserve, after Fed Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that it would take significant deterioration in economic data to convince him that a hike in September should be delayed.
“A lot of it is going to hinge on these next few data points, with the jobs report on Friday that will be important,” Mark Lister, head of private wealth research at Craigs Investment Partners Ltd. in Wellington, which manages about $7.2 billion, said by phone. “For all their faults, equities still seem to stack up better than a lot of other asset classes.”
Japan’s Topix index was little changed. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.1 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index rose 0.2 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased 0.4 percent. Contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index, which tracks the biggest mainland Chinese shares, dropped 0.1 percent in Singapore as futures on the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index jumped 6 percent.
Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. rallied Tuesday after a 3.7 percent climb in the Shanghai Composite Index. Chinese equities climbed for only the second time in eight days last session after local authorities imposed restrictions on short selling, their latest salvo in a bid to stem gyrations in the stock market. Some brokerages halted their short-selling businesses entirely.
U.S. payrolls probably rose by 225,000 in July, according to the median estimate of 83 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Friday’s government jobs report. That compares with 223,000 in June. The private ADP National Employment Report is due Wednesday.
Traders are pricing in a 48 percent probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in September. That compares with a 38 percent chance earlier Tuesday.
E-mini futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge on Tuesday slipped 0.2 percent. [Ref]
FTSE Outlook and prediction
We have a 10 point divi today so that should be large enough to bring out some divi hunters at the close, probably starting about 16:15 or thereabouts. It all up to the bulls today who must break through and hold above 6700 if they are to have any hope of building on the recent gains. They got a bit of kicking yesterday being pushed back from 6720. A break of this level will put them in a safer position, certainly to start thing ink about 6740 (top of the rising 30min channel) and also the top of the 10 day Bianca and 20 day Raff at around 6780, 6790. I have put a rise in from the pivot at 6682, however a long here with a tight stop is necessary as if this level breaks then I think we will be dipping down to 6650 for the bottom of that channel, and possibly 6620 as support below that. For the moment, to start with, if the pivot holds I am feeling bullish for another charge from the bulls. Otherwise I am prepared to be fickle today and flick to bear on a break of 6682.
Morning all, another day at the sausage factory.
We seem to be stuck between a weak DOW dragging us down overnight and then a grinding higher DAX rescuing things the next morning.
Once again having a stab at getting to 6735/40, the next target that I see for the bulls. Because we’ve had so many attempts at this 6710ish area it’s a bit difficult to know when to say it’s broken until it’s obvious e.g. 25+?
Totally with Nick, <80 is a must for the bears pretty damn quick.
Struggling to break 6710 really once again. Going to be an interesting day. Dax has certainly been on a bull charge this morning!
Before 80 we obviously have this morning’s lows @ 92, currently under pressure but probably will hold this time, quite oversold.
Looks like a bounce to around 6700 coming up, if it fails around there then 92 will probably go next try.
Above 700, then range bound again.
FTSE 5mns — Price just crossing above trend again.
FTSE 4hrs — Continues the slow slog upwards, ⇒ 6750?
Slow slog indeed…
1st Trade this morning was 6690 – 6700 Closed +10
2nd Trade just now – Gone Short Just here 6710.
RSI 6 (94.8) & 17 (76.92) 31 @ 66.26 (for my records)
tmfp – Feeling twitchy here ??? RSI Trio. LoL
Bizarrely, just liquidated my long @20 and gone short.
These grinding moves are hard work, counter intuitive, which is a double bluff scenario if you’re RSI based trading and counter trading anyway…
Out of that short for nothing.
Once again, lack of any expected reaction to a 30 pt rise, only engulfed sideways movement, makes me wary of persisting with a naked rsi trade.
*
Yes…RSI Missing the mustard this morning.
Maybe it’s the CAM Level Long Trade
L 6725 to (R2) 6753 – (R3) 6790
Nice gap down at 05 – that’s my target.
Well spotted ZZ – Short again 6717
The RSI 31 helps…nothing’s perfect though…
**Duplicated message ** just trying to work out how to get it in the right place !**
The RSI 31 helps…nothing’s perfect though…
Short at 45, 10 point stop, sto and rsi showing overbought but seems to refuse to drop. Thought it would run out of gas by now.
Looks like we’re filling that July 22 down-gap ZZ. Oh me of little faith. 😀
— Daily timeframe.
Yes looks like it – up to 58-59 and then we’ll see.
Funnily enough there was a gap up on 100 ticks at 10:42, just as the upswing set in.
Left-click on link:
http://i1348.photobucket.com/albums/p736/jmca01/FTSE%20100%20DFB_zpsnik9ikft.png
Yes MT4 registered that as a gap as well. I thought it was a breakaway so didn’t go for it. Today’s a good example of gaps not working – or moving a long way from the target before they get hit. Not sure if it’s light volumes with holiday season – I know that can be a cause. What we now need is sustained loss of momentum to bring it back down.
Still hanging in there with my short by the skin of my teeth, only two X 1min candle confirms on the 65 stop so far.
If we can get to the DOW opening without triggering it, then might stand half a chance of getting through the divi too. Clutching at straws a bit, but wtf….
Made it so far……so, let’s see what Super Thursday brings, I have a feeling it will be make or break Day.
I suppose 6735 is to be regarded as comparatively ‘cheap’ now lol, what does the DOW have to do to keep us at these levels? 17620ish?
Dow faces resistance at ≈17635. Just about to burst through that I think. My 1 minute growth measure now positive. Looking for a decent run.
1min up-gap @ 14:45. 😀
Yeah, lol, the DOW 30 companies will now trade in a specific price pattern, potentially involving £Millions in value, so that a one point gap on a London bookmaker’s chart will be filled. 🙂
Is the Mafia involved? 😀
Absolutely.
and the Bilderbergs.
Unless this break above 6710 is a fake-out it does suggest it may have decided on the direction. While it holds above 6700 it’s quite conceivable that we grind up to 6800 or even 6875 (24 June high) before it wants to do its next serious retrace. Off to Specsavers to swap my bear goggles for some bull ones. Think I’ll be buying the dips for the foreseeable future until I get another trigger to go short off the 2-hourly.
Here you go then bulls, ideal entry, the DOW’s on its arse and we’ve come off 45 from the highs to test previous resistance which now should be strong support, at 20.
Fill your boots.
🙂
Howdy folks! Back from holidays…hope you all had some time off too.
@tmfp – agree with your bearish view. Looks like the bears are about to pounce. Hopefully it will be this week.
Welcome back.
Re: pouncing, yeah, that would be nice.
From 6735 would be nice 🙂