Support 6350 6310 6305 Resistance 6373 6390 6400 6420

Good morning. Am now back in the UK after travelling back yesterday, probably a good day to choose in the end with the US in Thanksgiving holiday mode. The FTSE100 ground up slowly through the day to close near its highs, and nudge the 6400 level during the session. The two main supports were a rally in base metal prices (after falling to multi-year lows) and expectations of aggressive European Central Bank (ECB) action next week. US markets were closed so the thin trade exaggerated today’s move. The main sector to benefit today was commodities on the back of metal price rises.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks advanced, with a regional gauge reversing its weekly drop, as a rebound in metals spurred gains for materials shares and investors awaited a report on China’s industrial profits.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 134.60 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo, with materials and telecommunication shares leading gains. The measure is poised to close the week little changed. Industrial metals surged Thursday after people familiar with the matter said China is stepping up its efforts to support the domestic industry, with the largest copper and nickel suppliers planning to meet this week to weigh their response to the slump in prices. Financial markets in the U.S. were closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

“With regards to China, our sense is that there are still significant risks to the global economy but on the other side, that they’ve got the policy ammunition to dampen that risk,” said Chris Green, director of economics and strategy in Auckland at First NZ Capital Group Ltd.

Japan’s Topix index added 0.1 percent. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.2 percent to 19,983.66, closing in on 20,000 for the first time since August. The nation’s consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in October from a year earlier, in line with economists’ estimates, according to a report released before the stock market opened Friday. A measure of inflation that also excludes energy rose 0.7 percent. The jobless rate fell to 3.1 percent, the lowest since 1995.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.4 percent, while New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index was little changed. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.4 percent in most recent trading, while contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.3 percent.

China Data
China is due to publish figures on October industrial profits, which slipped 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Citic Securities Co. is being investigated by the market regulator because it allegedly violated rules on the supervision and administration of securities firms, the nation’s largest brokerage said in an exchange filing Thursday. Some of the firm’s top executives have already been placed under investigation.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent from Wednesday’s close. U.S. equity markets reopen Friday for a shortened trading day. Traders are now pricing in a 72 percent probability that the Federal Reserve will increase borrowing costs at its December meeting.

Next week sees policy decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and European Central Bank, before the U.S. reports payrolls figures for November. The International Monetary Fund’s board meets on whether to grant the yuan reserve-currency status, and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather in Vienna.

“Traders still need to take into consideration that the investment landscape could change significantly next week,” said Chris Weston, the chief markets strategist at IG Ltd., in an emailed note. “Moves in the U.S. dollar hold the key for all risk assets.” [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

We have dropped back a bit from the 6400 level since yesterdays close, with todays emphasis on Black Friday and the retail sector. Its also the day after Thanksgiving in the US which can often see a rise during the US session (share tips discussed over turkey?!). The pivot at 6373 didn’t act as much support overnight, so I think a decline towards the 6350 area where we have the bottom of the 30min channel and the 200ema (30min) at 6340. So, for today I think a decline then a rise towards the pivot at 6373, and possibly higher. However, if the 6350 level breaks then 6305 looks likely, so flip to short on a break of that. We also have the 10 day Bianca at 6310 so worth a long at this level.

42 Comments

  1. Morning.
    Hope you had a good time in Dubai Nick, hanging out with footballers and MLM salesmen, were you? 🙂

    In hindsight, that 6400 yesterday was a good profit take for longs (looking at you Si) and I had this morning’s dip in my sights like Nick, but flipping short at 40 not 50, so had a good long turn off the 46 low (10 pt stop).
    Neutral in the 60’s, would buy another dip into the 40’s I think, with 11300’s looking a little overextended on the DAX, which was essentially buying the extra QE rumour yesterday.

  2. Not that I am close but what is currently City Index’s account margin close out? Is it 80% or 50%? I am not sure if I recall this correctly I vaguely remember getting an email from them a little while back saying it was being reduced to 50%.

    1. I thought it was 80% too,but looks like they have changed it to 50% now.They send an Email if you go below 100% margin indicator.

    2. It’s 50% since September I think,Don’t count on them closing you out though It depends who is going to gain from holding you in the position,remember the piranhas and sharks I mentioned!

    3. Thanks guys. I suppose that’s a positive. Having some breathing room to take on a couple positions on stocks. I always take screenshots of my account and positions at least once a day just in case they try to wrong you.

      1. Hey Anton be careful not to take on too much exposure,leverage is a double edged sword,you mustn’t put yourself at the Mercy of the market,I’ve got that tee shirt so I can talk from experience buddy.

  3. Closed short from yesterday at 60, think that its looks fragile though so if we do get a rally back then I think slip another one out.

      1. looks like the DAX mission continues, out for -2, suppose a long off the 3m uptrendline at 69ish would be in order

          1. Hi tmfp,I dont seem as cautious as everyone else, cant see the Dow resisting the call back to the 800’s and so a close above 6392 here…What am I failing to see ?

          2. Don’t ask me mate, one thing at a time.
            I’m best as a reactive trader, I couldn’t predict what the time will be in an hour, let alone indexes. 🙂
            I don’t see much resistance to what you are thinking though, the bulls are pretty much in control atm.

          3. Anyway, I’m off out till this afternoon, so stop to 68, limit 90, keeping it tighter than a gnat’s chuff.
            GL all.
            🙂

          4. That’s a bit of a pisser, miss my sell order by .5 pt then stop me out just as I log in.
            And then rally.
            🙁

  4. Hi WSF, for what it is worth and remembering I’m a “Gambler” not a “Trader”, I still think 6450 for year end. Therefore there is a chance of 70 points upside. Equally, it could easily go back to 6200-6250, or 200 points downside. So, I’m erring on the side of the bears with just over month to go until year end. Santa slap before Santa rally? Who knows!

    1. Thanks,I’m trying to move to intraday really,but I think U.S Election year is up and for this year I still think close above the open fits the story,so long cynicism and another 200 points to go 🙂

  5. I’ve set my Limits to close at the GAP close 6393.
    Then, I think I might wrap it up for the w/e.
    WSF – did you have a look at zulutrader.com – something for the w/e perhaps.
    I started a demo a/c and 4xmanegy – significant (not sure about this one)
    Interesting stuff though.
    On my Demo since yesterday -I’m up apparently 206$ and some (100$ on open positions).
    Probably the future of trading…

    1. Thanks Hugh,I’ll have a look a the weekend.I remember seeing a site a bit like that,with league tables,etoro I think.I probably only take 2 or 3 FX trades a year,momentum in the middle of the night when other stuff is flat.I knew someone who started a syndicate once and I spent a few months at an FX Co,before it was a regulated business,there was a loophole re how long a trade lasted etc etc .My poor Tech stuff is them,charts are charts,but they had a big emphasis on seeing the rate through the filter of other Cross rates,so similar to seeing Ftse through the Filter of Dax/Dow FWIW nobody really cared about other Indicators,only patterns and trends and news is how I remember it and the discipline was bad because rolling a position over was the solution to everything.Only rich clients got richer.I spent a lot of time reading the comedy news on Knight Ridder and admiring the Receptionist,she earned more than me 🙂 .Have a good Weekend.Thanks for that 30 min chart.

    1. That’s better –
      You find yourself looking at these candles and then realising your looking at about
      2 – 3 points movement …LoL

  6. Hi Hugh,I have been taking another look at that chart you posted at 12.33 yday with the Heikin Ashi candles. Are those charts ones you pay for monthly? Looking on the right of the chart posted you have arrows down and then bouncing up,I don’t understand how the chart has been interpreted to overlay those arrows at those points? I have used Heikin Ashi and quite like the format but other than that I just use basic free charts from the broker,how much am I missing here? If you are busy don’t worry.

    1. Hi Anstel,
      Sorry bit busy today as it’s kind of like the last day of the month.
      These charts : I use the Pro Realtime charts provided by IG.
      Best thing is to email me …
      statsuk@aol.com

    1. I got short again at lunchtime, nice little weekend punt. Looking fwd to tmpf’s exclamations of “catching falling knives” etc next week!!

  7. I think we should rename it the Mundane Half Hour if today’s turns out as it looks it’s going to.
    Looks more likely to challenge the lows than the highs and that’s about it for me.

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