Support 6280 6275 6250 6203 Resistance 6311 6340 6363

Good morning. It was another volatile day with the markets moving sharply down on geopolitical tensions following the downing of a Russian warplane near the Syrian border. Still, it meant that the 6295 short came good quickly, closing out at 6260 a few minutes after the open. The 6220 support area held during the later stages of the day and there was an afternoon rally on stronger than expected US economic data pushing the FT100 back up towards the 6300 level. The travel sector was the hardest hit following a U.S. travel warning, while oils were strong on oil supply concerns in the Middle East on mounting tensions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell, dragged lower by Japanese shares as the yen gained after Turkey downed a Russian warplane, fueling demand for haven assets.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.37 as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.5 percent after the yen rose 0.3 percent against the dollar on Tuesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the shooting down of his country’s plane by Turkish forces near their border with northeastern Syria would have “serious consequences.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.2 percent on Tuesday.

The incident added “to a growing sense of geopolitical unease that has built up since the attacks in Paris,” said Jasper Lawler, a London-based market analyst at CMC Markets Plc.

While European stocks sold off on the warplane news, the impact was more limited in the U.S. as political analysts in Russia and Europe said a major escalation seems unlikely given the risks associated with any conflict between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member. The downing of the plane comes as Brussels remains on the highest-level terror alert amid what officials have called credible terrorist threats and after the U.S. State Department issued a global alert for Americans.

The Asia Pacific gauge is down 2.5 percent this year, poised for its first back-to-back annual declines since 2002 as investors assess the extent of China’s economic slowdown amid preparations by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as next month.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.1 percent on Wednesday as consumer firms declined while energy and materials producers rallied after a two-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed and New Zealand’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent.

Futures the FTSE China A50 Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading. China has canceled a rule requiring brokerages to hold daily net long positions in their proprietary trading accounts as the nation’s stock market stabilizes following its summer slump, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.1 percent. The S&P 500 closed 0.1 percent higher on Tuesday. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Today’s pivot is 6280 and we have a rising positive trend line (coral) on the 30min at 6275, so a long around this level might well be worth a go. There is a rising channel on the 30min chart with support at 6250 and resistance at 6350. We have a fairly small dividend today of 2.8 points so unlikely to see much buying at the close from he divi hunters today. If the bulls do get the rise from the pivot then 6315 is the first level of resistance that they will need to break. With all the turmoil in the world at the moment the indices are holding up pretty well! If the bulls do play ball today then the top of the 20 day Bianca at 6363 looks worth a short as that would roughly tally with the top of that 30min channel, and also R1 at 6340. On the flip side, if we dip down to 6220 again then this might well be worth a long for a double bottom bounce.

149 Comments

        1. Fair enough, got to get a bit of momentum through 6370 first though. How much do the DAX and DOW have to do, to drag us up there?

  1. Morning All,When Wen Jiabao was Premier and visited London he used to go to the Bank every day to change Yuan into Sterling,one day he said,”How come I came in here with same Yuan as yesterday but today I get less Pounds ?”
    The Banker says, “Fluctuations.”
    and Wen Jibao said “Fluck you Blitish too.”and thats whey we dont have a steel Industry anymore.

    1. Lol WSF,Hey tmfp I’m looking at the 1 hr chart Ftse,would I be right in saying initial resistance at 6370 and 17920 on Dow thanks?

          1. Hey WSF I can see that resistance level now around the 850 mark where we are now on the Dow,it looks like it’s holding here so another 70 on the Dow could happen quickly I think.

      1. Hi anstel, yeah looks about right, standard assumption is that recent previous highs will provide a bit of resistance, although the DOW is also looking at earlier Nov highs as well at 17976, our equivalent 6480 ish, (shows our lag).
        If and when they get there, keep an eye on the 10 period rsi (my default setting, 14 is too long for me), readings of 70+ imply that it’s getting a bit overbought and lessen the chances of an immediate breakthrough.

        The bounce from that previous shakeout was well contained on the DOW within 50% of the rise from late Sept lows and was healthy for the bulls: not so much us, the FTSE retraced ~80%, not what you want from a bull move, shows vulnerability imo.

        1. RSI changed from 14 to 10. I tend to agree with you now tmfp it’s looks vulnerable to me too now short term I think talk of a Santa rally is a little too soon. It’s all very unstable imo.waiting and watching,welcome back hope you enjoyed your break.

          1. The Cam levels I have heard of but I know nothing about them so I will ignore those for now,I’m going to keep it simple.The standard pivot levels at R1 R2 and R3 are progressively higher by 14…… 32……..and 48 pts than the fib pivot levels,I don’t understand that so I think Fibonacci is an area I need to study.

          2. Under the Fibonacci arc button on the Drawing Toolbar,the 3rd button,Fibonacci Retracement is the one that is most often useful,so from the most recent high or low to the start of the move for the levels on your chart (Cityindex chart).

          3. Oh fantastic thanks WSF I have never known how to put a fib overlay over my charts,let me have a look thanks

          4. Ok WSF I have found the third button fib retracement.when I first clicked it it said align it with your levels….something like that I can’t remember exactly what it said but It showed in the little box with my SMAs when I expand the box,I deleted it out of the sma box and now I can’t get the fib levels to come up again any ideas?

          5. Anstel, look for confluence between fib levels, pivots and historical support and resistance levels. When these converge it’s like the planets aligning and more-often-than-not the price will bounce from the levels.

          6. Ok WSF I now have fib retracements 1 showing in the box that shows what sma’s are on my chart.i don’t know how to set it up but if it’s difficult I will ring them.

          7. Thanks Dan,ok when I manage to get the fib levels up on my chart that’s something I will look at as well.much appreciated cheers.

        1. Yes you can delete them from there or from the bin button on the Drawing Toolbar(that will take everything youve drawn though eg support lines).I leave the Fibs on bigger timeframes sometimes but on shorter timeframes I keep redrawing them,eg on the 5 min now the mkt went up then tested the 23 then pushed at the top,0%,and back to 23 but its 14 candles away from the end of my Fib lines,so easier to delete them via that box and just click the Fib Retracement button and click the start of the move and drag it up to the end of the move and across to where we are now every time.I dont even leave the drawing Toolbar on the screen,because it is only one more click.I mean 3 or 4 clicks start to finish.I guess it is designed to be disposable,so just keep redrawing.Some days it’s more useful than others and some timeframes mean more,probably like SMA’s everybody is watching the same things.

          1. The number is just the number of times you have drawn on that chart,in order, I have deleted all my previous Fib levels today and have -Fibonacci Retracements 7 written in that box next to a bin symbol that will delete that item.Sometimes you might want to keep more eg a range within a larger move,the number just helps you tell them apart so you dont delete an early one you want to keep or something.

          2. I seem to be having some problems with my platform WSF but I’m getting the idea,I have not managed to draw the lines across properly yet,I’m going to leave the fibs now and come back to them later Im beginning to think my laptop needs a few bugs removing.

  2. It didn’t start from Pivot on FTSE but on dow dax it did.
    I just wish Dax did more decent retracements, it never does. Rarely. Dow is better in this sense. Dax is standing like a pole in a field and not moving. Comon Dax, ease off a bit.

    1. Yes, I’ve been noticing that too Jack, the DAX is prone to step movements as opposed to waves; like this morning, +100 since 0900 then sideways.
      Might be a bit of downside if it breaks 40?

      Why is everyone ragingly bullish, have I missed something? Still another fortnight till the average Santa Rally would be expected.

      1. 🙂 I really did see that Coca Cola Santa Lorry last week.
        Good to see you back,hope you had a good break.Funny how easily the Dax retook 11k compared to the fuss it was making yesterday.

      2. I’m not interested what will happen tomorrow or in the next 2 weeks, today indicators screaming up up and I will try to catch up up if I can. I am not a long term trader that’s for sure. However today I see R3 at 11238. Today Dax is catching up for being slow in the afternoon. So I hope for a good entry after 2.30

      3. Morning tmfp. One reason for a bullish outlook is Thanksgiving tomorrow. Look at the seasonality stats. US markets usually have green days for the rest of this week with a red next Monday. Volumes will be light so the markets drift up. Am expecting more down early Dec then we’ll see. Assume the FTSE will be dragged up with this sentiment. Am looking to hold onto longs until Friday if poss then short at the close of Friday. This assumes we don’t get some surprise from the geo politics to knock the seasonality off course.

  3. Right, the logic today: where would US want the price go? Yesterday they went up, so today they will want to go up as well, plus they got quite a room to 18067. So logic is to go long at US open.

  4. Morning all

    Trades for today:

    Still long on Lloyds from 71
    Long on Land Securities from 1205
    Short order on Fresnillo at 740
    Short FTSE from 6361

    I also really want to get long on Nike, but it’s over 13,000 points with a spreadbet.

    1. Fres and Hoc used to be good longs and now Hoc has gone from 6quid to 50p as if Silver wasnt an ind metal,that is crazy.

    2. Hi Dan – Any thoughts about Lonmin ?? Still got 32000 employees and and the banks are going to lend 370m (i think i read ) .
      I don’t know a huge amount about it – surprised yesterday when someone tweeted pointed that they didn’t understand why miners were continuing to increase production (mainly Copper ) ! **

    3. Hey WSF

      Fres is an interesting one. Silver has plummeted yet the shares have rallied. The below article from IG explains succinctly:

      https://www.ig.com/uk/shares-news/2015/11/24/fresnillo-looks-ready-to-drop-29215

      There’s also a lovely descending trend line starting from sept 2014.

      Hugh, Lonmin, no idea what’s going on there. Every time I check its down another 5% or 6%. The rights issue definitely didn’t help. Barclays Capital have a target of 26p! but I’m keeping well out.

      1. Dan – Very briefly – they did a 46 for every share held at 17p .
        Can’t remember the exact figures – basically just getting funding to stay open !
        Ex Rights price now. You can pick these up for 1.57 pence each – so 1000 shares going be roughly £15.70 – (prob. easier on the spreads & funding would be less than comm.)
        Barclays Price target 26p – imagine that …
        As has been pointed out – Lonmin Rights issue is not going to change the price of Platinum though….

    4. What kind of stops do you use, I know it will vary by individual, the risk-reward they are willing to take on and the account size, but generally how far one should stop out?

        1. Hi Anton,

          The stop should be placed at the level of price invalidation. So if the price breaks a key high or low. There is no set formula for number of points, as stocks have huge price differences. Lloyds is valued at 71 points, yet Next is 7800. So a 50 point stop on Lloyds is massive and ting on Next.

          Which stock are you looking at?

          1. Thanks. I am not looking at one particular stock at the moment, still in the learning mode and so far only taking stakes with the bare minimum. I am still learning with money since I can’t do it if no money is involved. I have been doing a lot of reading in the night time around technical analysis and also general stuff about spread tracings. So if you think a stock will bounce off a support but decides breaks down, is it best to place the stop just below support it or do you allow for some leeway because stocks can often bounce back up on the same day after briefly penetrating support? IF you have the stop too tight then there is a chance you will be stopped out. But then, if a break is confirmed then having the support too much away could only lead to deeper losses.

          2. Exactly. The stop needs to be below the low with a little breathing room. I would upload a chart but I have no idea how to! However, for example I’ve traded LAND a few times this year. Each time the entry was 1200 which was support, the low was 1188 and therefore the stop was 1180.

            An important point to bear in mind is that support and resistance aren’t exact levels, but zones.

  5. Well, taken my first 10 of the morning 27/37, good old rsi, what to do now?
    Don’t think I’ll short it just yet, but a quick burst into the 40’s might be difficult to resist.

  6. IG expect DOW to open about 50 higher 17863 which would justify ~6340, probably expect a bullish first hour as they have new short term highs then 18000 in sight. That would probably hit 6368 over here, then is it worth a fail sell?

    Unlikely scenario, but if it doesn’t follow the bull script, then it’s 17500 and high 200’s here until there’s support.
    I’ll be selling the strength as usual I think.

  7. mmm.. should have taken 20. very unusual for my habit. DAX is the culprit today.
    Wish this FTSE goes down

    1. You should be ok unless the DOW gets 845+, it might go for a run then, but you’ll be able to b/e anyway.
      FTSE seeing buying around 20/25 three times now.

        1. Yes, nearly that time already and it’s looking a bit ominous for the short side to be honest, although we haven’t cleanly made new highs for the day yet.

  8. Ooops, forgot to watch, balance from yesterday got taken out at 6325. Paid me back for lack of discipline mistake last week. Actually, I do think there will be a reasonable drop before the real New Year rally, just too scared to short it!

  9. I’ve just done my first trade out for +10.8 points, I had to get back on the horse I didn’t like being worried about placing a trade!

      1. I had seen the strength earlier tmfp the one hr chart looked positive and so did the 15 min chart and the Dow SMAs seemed stable so I bought on that dip at 27.7 out at 38.5. It also felt right to me,only minimum stake but I’m really happy to get a trade back under my belt.

    1. Nice one anstel, chip away and you get there. 10 points a day is 50 a week and then 200 a month. 200 points a month is what I look for.

      1. Thanks chippy it’s minimum stakes now till I double my resourses,No more stupid big position sizes,It’s about Risk management and my biggest failure was going in too deep.Im looking to try and find consistency that’s what I could never find so that’s my target,if I can make £50 a week in the process that’s great for starters.Best of luck.

  10. So here we are MHH, both us and DOW briefly made new daily highs and have quietly drifted off, accelerating now.
    I’m up for a small long in the 330’s/ 820’s only on this dip.

  11. I understand that, Hugh, but sometimes the price doesn’t go down at all like today on Dax and you are getting no position. But I thought and decided – no position is better than a bad entry for today so just let it go, yet again. Another day – better entry.

  12. Evening All,

    I’ve struggled tonight to come up with anything I feel is worthwhile other than the obvious.

    The PRT trend lines have a channel trending up from 6282 – 6368
    (as time progresses the channel becomes 6289 -6378 @ 1 O’Clock).
    (It may oscillate between these)
    N.B. The number of green lines below the current price only serve to point out
    that there is quite alot of support below.
    The absence of of red Helkin Ashi Candles would indicate uptrend.
    The MACD on 30 min is positive but we also have a bearish divergent signal (higher prices – lower MACD)
    Not much help but I’ll post it anyhow…
    ( I like to think that the FTSE likes to have a daily 50 point movement in it – calculating this would suggest
    an area of 6292 or 6380)

    Market Open

    Option 1
    We continue up to 6361 or maybe 6370 & then retrace.
    So there’s one trade 6345 – 6360 .
    Option 2
    We pull back to 6323 and then up to 6361
    Long 6323 –
    Option 3
    We pull back to 6305 and then pull back to 6330
    Option 4
    We pull much further back to 6282 and then retrace back to 6330.

    http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=4oxxoacehyvtgj5jn3vxjul1q&type=png&purpose=file

    1. Morning Senu,I managed to gain 6 points so far today,I don’t like the idea of shorting this,thanksgiving in usa so Dow is shut!….There’s more action than when it’s open lol!

    1. Yes I’m watching to see if that 920 level on the Dow gets broken.tmfps Rsi on 10 was nudging the overbought at 76 but it’s not worth the risk I don’t think yet.

  13. Morning Guys,
    Happy Thanks Giving LoL 🙂
    6382 Hi – about a week late – wasn’t this the level we were chatting about – about a week ago I think …

    Anyone seen this zulutrade.com – real interesting ..if you’re into FX..

    p.s. I think Nick’s flying back from being on holiday at the moment – hence …

      1. Thanks chaps there seems to be about 6 point available last couple of times it’s got overbought on RSI buts its very risky,i suppose the next obvious target is 400.

        1. Hi Anstel,
          Whilst it’s pretty quiet – think about setting up some charts that you’re happy with and that tell you if your bias is Long or Short.
          In whatever time frame suits you – bigger time frames require bigger margins hence why the 1- 15 mins are quite popular.
          If your Bias is Long – then really you should be buying the dips.
          If your Bias is Short – then you should be selling the rallies.

          I’ve attached a chart I have sitting on one screen – that I’ve started to really got to like…
          I’m hoping it’s relatively easy to understand – it’s an Ichimoko chart with Helkin Ashi candles and the addition of a 19 & 39 ema.
          I can see easily – “my bias”…& There are lots of ” levels” (Stops).

          I’m not suggesting you re-create this chart – but rather have something that you are familiar with and live with it and understand it’s twists and turns.

          My chart is here:
          FTSE 1 min Chart
          http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=i8oyfj0eofpb11hlnu78e40jd&type=png&purpose=file

          1. Hi Hugh,I have 3min FTSE with SMAs,15 min and hourly,with Rsi now at 10 thanks to Tmfp and Macd,Well I do when it’s working!I also have a Dow chart and check the time frames manually,looking at plugging in a monitor via hdmi and dragging some more charts over.Ive been looking into Fibonacci thanks to WSF buts it’s early days,I can’t seem to be able to draw the lines.having problems with cityindex site and their App.

  14. Morning all

    Took a quick 10 points from 6362 down to 6352 earlier this morning, was hoping for a bigger drop but it never materialised. Lloyds is moving up nicely along with Tesco. Stuck a quick short order on Phoenix at 900. Thin volumes today on the FTSE so might be good for a few range bound trades for 5-10 pints each.

  15. Is anyone else finding trouble accessing City Index at the moment? They are regularly having downtime or certain sections of the trading platform missing, it seems to happen to me at the worst times. I do wonder if they have guys that access to people’s accounts and freeze the platform or deny log in for periods of time to stop people out. I never have problem with any other site whatsoever. I mean there are literally millions of people searching Google at any one moment and yet they never have issues. I have quite a fast broadband connection, and dealing with City platform would be a breeze.

    1. Yes,they can hardly claim this is a period of high activity stressing their system,unless everyone is withdrawing their mornings winnings 🙂

      1. Maybe I’m being paranoid. Still, they shouldn’t have so much downtime. I think a move to another platform might be on the cards. Do people here have issues with IG, Finspreads?

    2. I can pretty much always tell when a move is about to take place in the market,it’s easy,I just look at my phone,if I’m getting a latency warning,your connection is weak I know something’s going on,It’s my best technical indicator,works like a charm :0)

  16. Well that’s me done,no point in hanging around if the brokers have gone to lunch! hope its not half day closing!

  17. Ah, here you all are, watching the bull paint dry.
    Unless you jumped on the train early on, precious little to get your teeth into.
    My FTSE uptrend from 0900 broke about 12.30 @ 83 and sideways since then, although we haven’t followed the massive lol DAX 20 pt drop since 1300.
    Have a feeling this is it for the rest of the day 🙁
    I’ve been using the Commodity Channel Index (20) for micro trading, it’s a bit like a neurotic RSI, but there’s only so many 3 point trades you can do, currently short at 86 for the last half an hour, manfully resisting the temptation of +2.

    1. Not even watching the Paint 🙁 Cityindex have no Charts or Account balances or Prices,at the moment,but they are letting people log in.

        1. They are back now.
          The thing is how much do they care about losing existing clients,when most apparently last 90 days and then get replaced.

  18. I think it will be a Sane Half Hour today, as opposed to a mad one.
    Can’t really see anything much happening, but just shorted that blip at 84, will + a handful hopefully around 80 and might long 70’s for a closing rally.

        1. Atm, to being giving back some of my hard earned penny profits.
          I can’t see much after hours weakness, cheapest escape route being looked for.

          1. I think I’ll take a 4 point hit rather then waste my life staring at this any longer.
            A sh*t end to a boring day, at least Si wil be happy, he got his 400.
            Goodnight all.

  19. BTW, for those that don’t know, Nick flying back today from Dubai hence no report.

    Anyway quite day trading, but boy someone is buying loads or short squeeze? didn’t expect to see so bullish DAX and FTSE….should have loaded both buckets full in morning lol (only if we knew that)…

    Not feeling shorts are working today at all, another day tomorrow, so hopefully yanks will spice up things.

    1. I’d think volume is light and, as mentioned above, DAX inspired strength because Draghi’s promising more free money to play with.
      Technically too, once 52 and 70 broke there wasn’t much selling to come.

          1. Up 4 points so that makes my +10 for today,can’t help thinking it will push up a little more though,I’ll keep it a little longer I think,then I’m done for today.

          2. Yes,I think it will drift above tonights close soon enough and probably higher once some Markets actually open later 🙂 I’m expecting the Dax to get back to where it came down from at least,mid 20’s.

  20. Ideas for tomorrow
    Cash Close 6393
    PP 6374
    Broadly Bullish Range Trend

    Option 1
    Move lower to previous Resistance 6360.
    (If this is the case it will have moved through Pivot at 6374)
    It could bounce off 6360 & move higher to 6440
    Long 6360 (See below) – let’s see what happens at Pivot.

    Option 2
    Moving slightly lower & having broken through PP 6374
    & Support 6360 & S1 6353
    We move to previous Resistance Area 6312-6318 & S2 Area
    & then move back up to 6361.
    So the possible trade here is Breaking Support (6360) : Short 6355 Tgt 6310 Stop 6374(PP)
    then Long 6310 Stop 6289 Target 6360

    Option 3
    We simply keep going up 6440 + (Could go to 6486) Trailing Stops
    Long 6410
    Buying the Highs is always a pain in the ass imo !

    Chart Here:
    http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=qn28wsczc8grbe3rngmqo5ssg&type=png&purpose=file

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