Support 6280 6260 6220 6180 Resistance 6295 6296 6327 6363

Good morning. It was a choppy day of trading with the FTSE100 oscillating around the 6300 level. The bias was definitely negative with commodity prices hitting their lowest levels in 13 years and the US dollar at its highest in 8 months. The Euro also fell to a 7 month low on prospect of ECB easing. In terms of sectors, commodities and supermarkets were the main losers, the latter on margin concerns which has dogged the sector for some time now. The best sector was defence on announcements of increased government spending.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks fell as tumbling commodity prices dragged raw-materials shares lower, with BHP Billiton Ltd. on course to close at the lowest since 2008.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 134.16 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo, as Japanese markets opened after a holiday. Material shares led losses among the regional measure’s 10 industry groups. The increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year is sending the dollar higher, making industrial metals more expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Copper fell below $4,500 a metric ton for the first time in six years and nickel touched the lowest in more than a decade. U.S. crude rose back above $42 per barrel after Saudi Arabia pledged to help stabilize markets.

“Wild gyrations in oil and another copper tumble could see further pressure on resource stocks,” said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist in Sydney at CMC Markets. “The rhetoric from the Fed suggests numbers would have to fall off a cliff to stop an interest-rate rise in December.”

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index slipped 0.4 percent. BHP Billiton fell 1.7 percent in Sydney, the biggest drag on the regional benchmark gauge. Rio Tinto Group lost 1.1 percent.

Regional Gauges
Japan’s Topix index slipped 0.2 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index added 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index was little changed.

Markets in Hong Kong and China have yet to open. Futures on the Hang Seng Index added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, as did contracts on the FTSE China A50 Index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6 percent on Monday on a slump in technology companies as the securities regulator gave the green light to initial public offerings following a five-month freeze.

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index were little changed. The underlying gauge slipped 0.1 percent Monday as gains in consumer companies were overshadowed by a retreat in Allergan Plc and Pfizer Inc. amid their record $160 billion merger. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook and Prediction

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Certainly quite choppy at the moment and a bit directionless. The bulls failed to break the daily pivot yesterday at the 6328 area, and today the daily pivot is resistance at 6295. If the bulls are able to break through this level then a rise to 6320, and possibly 6345 looks doable, though there is a decent downtrending channel on the 10min and 30min charts at the moment. Key support on the 30min chart is at 6280, if the bears break through this (its possible as this would be the third test of the rising support line on the 30min chart) then a decline to 6220 looks possible. So, its in a pretty narrow range as I am writing this of just 15 points between decent support and resistance. I think a short off the pivot at 6295 is worth a try initially, though be easy to flip to long of the bull looks to be pushing through this level.

77 Comments

  1. Morning All, quite bearish start to the day, and was adding longs all way down to 6230, very risky and against my rules, had average 6250, closed all 6260. Was worried there at 6230, but glad bulls showed up….lucky escape? Anyway play safe, risky environment with sudden news…

    1. Morning All,came close to stopping out my LT Dow trade this earlier,still might I suppose.Looking at Bulmers Owners’ C&C Group,£3.77 up 0.02,this morning,Incider trading ? 🙂

    2. Day chart for the DOW,Dax and FTSE was showing some warning signs from last Thurs.Dow was the mildest with a Doji it then broke above ; so I’m inclined to see if the U.S can save the day,GDP at 13.30 might be an excuse for that.That break of 11000 on the Dax seemed to take a lot of S/L’s out,so I guess watch the attempts to retake it for a clue,had one already,3 is usually significant.

  3. Had 2 shorts 11012 and 11006.5 currently closed +37 and +21, and earlier +6. Should have held shorts longer, now extra 20 gone, but generally got for my r/r anyway. I suppose closing position is not my strong point, I get nervous and want to close, however pull back may happen, never know.

      1. Yep, not often but took them by my book. Now I see I should have held till 11.06 (would have had extra 18 points) but who cares: I could have had more or less, it’s just a number. What’s important it didn’t break 10927 so now it’s going back to 11023 or higher (depends) and so no shorts from me now.

          1. Agree, you should never think, I could have had that or this, stick to you plan and R:R, as long % winners more, overall will be positive. No one can win all the time.

      2. Initially thought to take 15, but waiting for some reason. It may also trend down for the whole day. who knows? Anyways planning to come out before 13:30 news.

        1. Sometimes waiting is a good thing. I didn’t wait but fair enough it would have got up to me b/e. But I didn’t re-enter short again, got scared I suppose.

          3. Oh, I just wanted to type: Senu, it’s 30 points now, 3 to 1, do you think of closing? And you did before that, well done. Great job!

  5. Here is my plan, for what its worth! (Not exactly day trading but hey ho).
    Not got the balls to be short – think it’ll be 6450 by the end of the year but could get as low as 61500-ish. Small long at 6250, will carry on averaging if it goes down and will wait for 6400 if it goes up. Simple…..if it works.

      1. If I’m brutally honest I don’t look at charts particularly but go on my feel of risk vs reward. However it seems to me that the only time they’ve managed to get it significantly below 6100 was in August in low volumes. Every time it has got near there again it has bounced pretty hard (September, October and last week). So, if I think it is going to be 6450, it’s no point in having a bet at 6300 or more but every move below 6250 is an opportunity-if that makes sense!

  6. The geo-political situation and the war between ISIS and the Western coalition could see the market crash sooner or later, perhaps as much as 10% off the DOW in a single day. Guaranteed stop losses might be wise. There seems to be lot of dark clouds hanging over market sentiment, even though I think we will see pre-New Year rally.

  7. Geo-politics is a bit of a mess and I do understand what you are saying Anton. However, I would, in my own little way, argue that it was more worrying a year ago when “someone” shot down a passenger jet over Ukraine. Whilst the market dumped a couple of times, it rallied properly hard by the new year. Also, at the risk of sounding heartless, oil tends to rise in times of war and as we keep hearing the ftse is ‘mineral based’!
    I’m not in for the whole of my net worth, it is gambling after all!

    1. chippy,I agree with that as far as the end of next year.2017,first year of a new American Presidency fits the historic pattern for stuff happening.Amazing how often taking the completely cynical view works out.

  9. WSF if you are about please could you do me a favour? On Cityindex Dow chart 5 min..10 min ….hourly ….doesn’t seem to matter which I have not got a buy or sell box a quantity box or an order tab.somethings not right,do you have the same situation?

    1. That’s strange I have reloaded another chart and it’s ok? But the original charts are not displaying the prices as mentioned ummmmn connection status is green ?

      1. Hi anstel.I switched those options off on my charts,trade off the Watchlist.Check “you” havent switched it off.It is Display Trade Buttons under add Indicator,you need it ticked.

          1. Hi WSF Yes you are right thanks ..my display trade buttons was not ticked,I havn’t unticked it though to the very best of my knowledge.I have it working correctly now. I must say I have had quite a few problems with their platform.i had a friend round who trades with a different broker a few weeks ago.my whole platform stopped working,I thought at first it was my Internet connection but his brokers platform was fully operational so I knew my internet was working, you would think they would have a stable platform organised,thanks for your help.

          2. anstel I think the layout you choose can make a difference,the amount of data you are streaming.I use a Short Watchlist (9 items) “module”an Open positions,active orders and Trade History “module” and a “module”with 4 tabbed charts with the Trade from the Chart option switched off.Before Greece I used more(eg more markets + Order History etc etc ) and all I got was data error messages all the time.Now I save different Watchlists as options and different Chart layouts as saved Chart Profiles instead of having the stuff there all of the time.I havent had one of those times where you log in and have to re enter all the settings since I streamlined it like that,but I still get the times when nothing works and their is a lag between signal and execution etc etc 🙁

      1. I’d moved my stops to 6188 in order to withdraw a bit of money so that if I end up with nothing, I can at least buy food. 🙂 Came a bit close there.

          1. I have a Dow long like that,it was a Hedge and it is now an in profit Long and it nearly stopped twice today and part of me wanted it to,just to end the interest payments and the Trading Resources drain etc etc,although it would still be a net loss if it did,at 13.20 we were 8 points away from the S/L,crazy.Cant believe it’s still moving up to yr end.

          2. Hi Si Im quite an optimistic person by nature and I thought 6500 is possible,I’m not sure 6800 is likely just in the near future though,the Dow is about 600 pts or so from its highs and the Ftse is about 850 pts or so from its highs,Not sure my ideas are worth much but you might have more chance breaking it down to two or three trades 6250 to 6350 three times would get your missing 300 points just a thought to consider very best of luck however you play it.

          3. Hi Si I would just like to add if it doesn’t work out and you lose all your trading capital then you can’t trade,from experience I would say if you can get a decent amount back on this trade take it,and then fight back with smaller position sizes to reduce your risk.If anything happens again along the lines of recent events you are vulnerable to the market and it could clean you out.Im not trying to be negative but you need to cover yourself or you could end up in my position.If my experience can help you at least that’s something.

  11. Hello all

    Trading today:

    Long on Lloyds from 71
    Eyeing up a short on Phoenix
    Long on the FTSE from 6225

      1. Hi WSF

        It’s just a very short term swing trade from support, just technical, not thinking about the fundamentals. HSBC looks in a better shape for a fundamental trade.

        The article is interesting. It’s scary that some punters are still holding onto shares in banks bought pre-crash, absolute madness, especially with no divi. And now the gov thinks that every private investor will be queuing up to buy shares they already technically own.

      1. Well done today,I got stopped a few times,totally missed the opportunity just watching it now until tomorrow and resisting the temptation to jump on the Dax lag.Have a good evening.

    1. Might sound mad after my previous comments but this has run a bit too hard, closed half for 50 points, reload if it comes back, protected if it carries on.

    1. Hi Senu,no I’m not trading,I seem to have lost my bottle,I’m scared of trading a £1 a point,if I start again I will put £500 capital in and trade £1pp and try to double the 500 to 1000.Im keeping an eye on the market though,I think you lose the feel for it if you don’t.

      1. Thing is Senu though 1% of 500 is 5 I think it needs to breath 10 at the very least so it’s really not an ideal situation.

        1. Thanks Senu yes I am in no rush,goin to catch up with some jobs first but I’m keeping an eye on the market just in case I see something lowish risk like a really strong buying spree where it is screaming overbought on RSI. Plus I’m putting together a trade plan with rules,my number one rule is stick to the rules!!GL as always.

    1. Thanks – Senu.
      I think I saw that you had a good couple of trades as well.
      Knackered tonight so I’m off …..

  19. Evening All,
    I’ve found the exercise of looking the night before the following day, quite beneficial. Hopefully I’ll get some time off tomorrow but what I’m looking at is
    as follows:
    Possible move from this evening’s close 6297 (Cash Close 6277)
    To 6325 – 6337 – Short off this area 6328 to 6300.
    A small dip down to 6293 – and then a move up to 6325.
    (I’m Short at the moment from 6308 so, if I see that will be looking to see if we might get the next move – see below – 6264…)
    A dip down to 6264 (PP Area) and then up to 6300 area.
    A bigger dip down to 6230 (S1)
    Chart Here….
    http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealTime_V10_2/display_chartimage.phtml?name=f1fm0vimxd0znbhq3jdv29rp1&type=png&purpose=file

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