Support 6120 6107 6095 6075 6025 6020 Resistance 6152 6187 6192 6245 6298

Good morning. Nice trade on the FTSE yesterday that actually dropped further than the point I took profit in the end, but even so the bulls came charging back to hit 6160 as a high, before dropping 100 again. Certainly volatile and I expect today and tomorrow will be more of the same as we approach NFP news tomorrow. Chinese markets are closed for the next 2 days though so that may help keep things a little bit calmer! That said I think the panic has been slightly overdone (for the moment and till the next one at any rate) so still have a slight bullish vibe, at least for 6187 today where we have the top of the Bianca 20 day channel.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, following a rebound in U.S. shares, with markets in China and Hong Kong closed for a holiday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 126.45 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Chinese shares closed lower on the last trading day of this week as investors assessed the level of state support before a major military parade on Thursday. Mainland markets are closed Thursday and Friday to commemorate the end of World War II.

“One modest positive today is the fact China is offline for its Victory Day commemorations,” said Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief markets strategist at IG Ltd. “So traders and investors will be focused on domestic data, valuations and trying to understand how to navigate these crazy markets.”

E-mini futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.3 percent following a 1.8 percent gain on the underlying index on Wednesday. The U.S. equities gauge slumped 6.3 percent last month as China’s currency devaluation spurred concern over global growth, erasing more than $5.7 trillion in equity market values worldwide, while volatility surged the most on record.

South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.7 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.5 percent. New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index advanced 0.7 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Todays pivot is 6107 and that tallies with the bottom of a rising 10 min channel for support. As such I think any initial dip will find support around there and be set for a rise towards the 20 day Bianca channel top which has dropped down to 6187 for today. With 30min channel resistance at 6190 I think that might cap any initial rise, and with China closed today traders might just see today as a chance to catch their breath (thats jinxed it now) and get ready for NFP news out of the US tomorrow. ADP yesterday can give a bit of a clue and was favourable so we might get an NFP figure around 215k. Generally I am still feeling fairly upbeat for the short term and can see the FTSE hitting 6300 in September, maybe 6400. However, longer term predictions seem to be getting harder to make these days so i will keep focussing on the 30min chart for daily trading. And that looks good for a rise today to 6190, if the bulls can break the early resistance at 6150.

53 Comments

  1. Morning, well here we are, 6150+ again but it doesn’t seem very convincing to me.
    Would look for the DAX to break and maintain 10200 otherwise I think we’ll see Nick’s arrows being right (again 🙂 ), but will watch a little while before shorting.

    There goes the DAX now, see if it holds 200+ and we make 6190.

    1. A bit early in the day for picking tops, but if it makes hard work of a retest of the highs, I think I’ll give it a go.

        2. Morning..
          6190 great entry – wish I’d had that
          I went short at the PRT line( Monthly Res) 6182 .
          We’re testing (& breaking) the 1 month Trend Line here.

        3. Lol
          Q: What’s yellow and furry?
          A: Bear custard.

          Where’s your stop, I was thinking about either 96 or 04.
          Just joined you at 88.

          2. Actually, this sideways action is beginning to look a bit like consolidation as opposed to top building to me.
            Volume is very quiet by the looks of it, I don’t think this is quite as nailed on a short as it first appeared.
            With the fainest of encouragement from the DAX (currently asleep) I think we could crash 6200 so I’m out for a few pennies.
            (Started typing this at 80 now 92)

  2. Seeing the Dow as quite bushy tailed (panic over) — e.g., 1hr chart — ⇒ 16500 in short term. Good luck with your system today Hugh.

  4. I can’t seem to find any exact times for when our ECB masters are going to hand down their latest wisdom today… anyone help?

    Long at 91, it even comes with it’s own built in 3 hour long trend line 🙂

        1. and out of the lot, break even at 85.
          I’ll shut up and watch now 🙂

          Any news on when this meeting/press release is please anybody?

      2. There seems to be some support at 6175 (& RSI Indicating Higher).
        We are seeing Lower Lows – any bounce of 5 pints seems to be sold off.
        I’m wondering if this going to remain like this ’til midday.

    1. You’re probably right.
      As time goes on, the ‘sell the news’ aspect of the ECB meeting gets closer, although a run up is also possible (or have we had that?).
      What happens if Draghi does hint at extended QE? I hate trying to interpret this stuff.
      There doesn’t seem to be a compelling technical case for any position atm that I can see.

  7. I don’t quite know how I’ve turned in to the forum bull, but there you go, that’s a nice little double bottom and a good bounce.
    An hour’s hyping up before the Meeting could see us back in the 90’s.
    Long 75 6 pt stop.

      1. Hi tmfp,

        I’m feeling like that aswell, just a disaster of a day, I had planned for today & tomorrow been up days but that 6210 this morning blew my short aswell, so sickening when it drops back to where you could have at least got out and then in the middle I do a few silly longs to burn some more points

        1. Custard – PRT line below here is 6120 – seems as good as anything…Stp 6182…patience…probably move there after hours or overnight…

  9. As I’ve only been doing this a few years, I only make a trade if my analysis matchs up with a few other traders ideas, that confirm my thinking is correct. As sometimes I find I could just be making imaginary figures and trends up lol. So I went for the 6190 short, Nicks analysis confirmed this, i also use few other technical analysis sites, I will now try and exit for 30 pips. I Probably should hold on for more but I’m happy with that today.

  10. Well played delta, I had 60 short & 80 got stopped out of my 80 @6203, then it drops, still have my 60, but really the messing around with longs I did @70 is the thing that annoyed me the most, hopefully this drops to 35 & I get out & go long for the afternoon, but who knows

  11. Yeah it’s always those small on a hunch trades that end up messy, sometimes you get lucky but usually they come back to haunt you, must stick to the original day’s trading plan

    1. Hindsight is wonderful stuff.
      I wonder how many shorts at 90 expected to run 15 against them and still only be 25 in front four hours later?

  14. Yea its mad, thinking hard on closing & taking the hit on the few points, but I ask myselft would I go long now and I’m not sure I would, we’re in a bear market after all?? look back at last Friday you would have thought all was well, personally I think its the fact China is closed, people are lulled into a false security, but thats my thinking and its far from reliable

  18. These type of spikes are very tricky to trade. Looks like a continuation of long trend but it might be a catch and price will start falling.

    1. Yep, I wish at 13.33 I had my terminal open, I just opened computer at 13.25 and was looking at Dax thinking “volatility narrowed, it is more likely to break one way or another” and when the candle at 13.33 broke up and started up and down I was thinking – it’s an invite for a long with SL at 10180. Nice one missed.

      1. Same here Jack, I was thinking “6165 long with a 10 pt stop” and then it was off and running and I missed it.
        Sums up today for me.

        1. Yep, it was quite a narrow channel then and support 6160. But the problem with such channels, you never know when it ends, which way it will break and will it break first to collect your stop?

  19. So, a bounce from 65 to 90, back to 75 currently 88, that’s a pretty good hold really, most of these press conference spikes end up zero gain after half an hour.

        1. The Draghi 30 point round trip over in exactly one hour.
          And din’t make a penny out of it.
          See you tmrw chaps, off for some fresh air.

Comments are closed.