Support 6077 6031 6021 5990 Resistance 6140 6144 6157 6158 6182 6235

Good morning. Bullish end to the quarter yesterday and those 2 shorts both got stopped out, even managing to break the top of the 10 day down channel. Beginning of the new month will see some new funds flowing ion this morning so expecting a bit of upside from that and we are still testing the top of the daily channels – both the Raffs are around this 6150 area. If the market isn’t too careful its going to rise too far too fast, get overbought and then come back down sharpish! Probably after NFP tomorrow….

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks followed U.S. shares higher, after the regional benchmark index posted its worst quarter since 2011, as investors awaited Chinese factory data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.2 percent to 124.09 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge slumped 15 percent in the three months ended September. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.9 percent in New York Wednesday, its best rally in three weeks, paring its quarterly drop to 6.9 percent.

With almost $11 trillion erased from global shares in the past three months, investors turn to Thursday’s Chinese manufacturing reports for clues on the extent of the slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. Riskier markets have been sold amid decelerating growth in China, a prolonged commodity slump and an exodus from developing-nation assets as the U.S. prepares to raise interest rates as soon as this year. With a week-long holiday in China from Thursday, money managers will then assess Friday’s U.S. payrolls report for indications on whether the job market is strong enough to withstand tightening.

“You shouldn’t be surprised if October is at least as volatile as September,” said Don Williams, Sydney-based fund manager at Platypus Asset Management Ltd. “The environment is still tough and earnings growth is hard to come by.”

China PMI
China’s statistics bureau is scheduled to release an official manufacturing index for September on Thursday. The reading will probably be 49.7, unchanged from a month earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Recent data have been weak, with a preliminary reading of a private factory gauge falling to the lowest level since the global financial crisis and industrial profits slumping the most in at least four years.

Japan’s Topix index gained 0.7 percent. The Tankan index of sentiment among large manufacturers fell to 12 in the third quarter, from 15 in the previous three months, the Bank of Japan said. Economists had expected a reading of 13. Big companies across all industries plan to boost capital expenditure by 10.9 percent this fiscal year, more than the median economist estimate of 8.7 percent.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index lost 0.2 percent.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. [Bloomberg]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction
FTSE 100 Prediction

Could be an interesting day today, especially going into NFP tomorrow and with ISM Manufacturing today in the US. We have popped above the 10 day Bianca channel overnight at 6097, however, both the 10 and 20 day Raff channels are around the 6150 area, so we may well get a dip from this area. The daily pivot is down at 6021 for today so support there, with 5990 below that. As you can see from the chart below there is a fairly decent looking 10 minute (rising) channel in play, with support around the monthly pivot area at 6078. I don’t think we will get as low as the pivot today, with the 6078 area holding for support, but if it breaks then its more likely. At the moment the various moving averages are all bullish so the bias is still long, and the Dax is just popping above its daily Raff channels too, after these big overnight rises, so a bit of a gap close start might well be likely.

119 Comments

  1. Morning.
    Glad I stayed up and watched the DOW, it soon became clear that there wasn’t much r/r in being short overnight so I luckily got out with a small + on my 48.
    But selling this morning at 6150 both medium term and day trade, adding to the former at 80 and taking a profit on the latter at 35, a tight 6 pt stop now.

    1. Morning,tmfp.Was that tight stop due to Fr,De,EMU PMI’s ? or just how you feel about 6150 as an area?

      1. Just cos I’m a tight bastid who doesn’t like losing money WSF 🙂
        Very much a seat of pants approach, only valid for that particular time and place.
        Just watching 35 attempting to hold and getting more bearish by the minute, would be very surprised if we don’t see an attempt on 6100 this morning.

        1. And then a rubber ball bounce….. definitely not a breakout day trade market, buy the weakness, sell the strength, one eye on 3 min RSI all the time.

          1. Took 10 off that spike, just trading extremes very short term, no overall plan.
            Looks like mining sector strength, a lot of room there for a technical rally, Glencore 100? (hope you’re out Senu).
            DAX still flat as your hat.

        2. I didnt have that at all and was looking for 60 odd,got out at 54.5 to have a rethink and although it’s looks like I could have got back in in the 30’s I’d have taken a b/e stop without your s/l comment,gone back in in the 40’s and be stuck against the same R with less money now,so thanks.

  2. Didn’t get stopped at 6 courtesy of my 3 candle manual thing and missed my 35 target by half a point, but out for +10 anyway, see where the dust settles

    1. Yeah, quite a disconnect this morning between the two isn’t there?
      What are you doing with your FTSE shorts? Averaging up?

  6. Very nice potential double bottoms showing on both FTSE and DAX in 3 hour.
    FTSE neckline around 6070, DAX 9600. A pullback to those levels and a hold would be quite bullish imo, would also work off the current overbought readings.
    Going on from that, targets would be 6260 and 10000, but a breach of 6040 and 9500 would be a fail and target the lows..

    1. Yes …
      Looking at megaphone on the 5 min – Line across the top 6162 Approx.
      Resistance Points Above 6170 ( 21st Sept) R2 6180.
      There several turning points running up to 6270
      Support Lines Below 6127 – R1 6120 – 6076 (Last night’s close)
      You would have thought a GAP fill would occur.
      Similar to Nick’s chart above, ignoring the first arrow.

  9. Joined back on Nick’s private service, this morning we shorted 6150, and banked in between 5-20pnts, I managed +9pnts. Was +20pnts but held as needed to let winners run, but came back up. Never mind a positive star to month at least 🙂

  10. Sitting on hands now, last two nights been so bullish, all the points made by the overnight bulls, we wake up to +100 each morning….

  13. This is slowly decaying into a third test of 6130 by the look of it, completely lost momentum on the upside.
    Will it hold with the DAX looking determined to test 9600?

          2. tmfp – Your trading is good (a vast improvement on mine 🙂 – but I never understand why you don’t hold slightly longer than just a couple of points or Sell half or third and run your trades that way. I’m thinking you’re bigger than £1PP – possibly £10 + so there would be room to do this.

          3. Sure, but of course there’s a bit of hindsight in that observation.
            I’m old, I need thought clarity when trading I guess, so that’s the all or nothing side of things.
            I often stagger my entries, but I suppose I just like to see money in the bank.
            Time for a short….

  15. wow.. FTSE and GLEN down. I am just coming back after 2 hrs meeting. 🙂 should I leave this short runnning tmfp, Jim ????

          2. Penny shares always used to be quite popular with SBetters as you could get alot of exposure in terms of PPP for relatively small financing/risk.

          4. Hi Senu – I was trying to find the link for you yesterday – I think it was on the SeekingAlpha site at the w/e highlighting some of the issues. I’ll have a look later again…it’ll be on my history along with some of the other dubious sites I’ve been on …e.g. that dick measuring forum that tmpf mentioned the other day LoL 🙂

        2. Nope – just can’t find it – If you put Glencore “Lehman” it will bring you up links to stuff…

          1. Thanks for your efforts, Hugh. I came out @ 88. I am not going to do that anymore, I think. better concentrate on FTSE.

        2. While it doesn’t close on the 3 min outside of the 13.00 candle range 04-14 still short term bearish, maybe for a nervous pre DOW dump.
          Missed my DAX target by 5 and FTSE by 1.5 so far, a bit frustrating…

          1. Yeah Hugh, agree re 76/80 later, but it’s what happens in the meantime that’s important too.
            Non Farms were a non event but good enough for an opening run up that the DOW is fond of.
            I’ll half my short before the opening, ideally on a flash down to ~6000 which is looking less and less likely atm.

          1. wow, what a scary day today, just now jumped in and out of short +15.5
            Don’t know what you call this, however pivot on dow is 16212

    1. and again just now to 40. That DOW opening run up is getting predictable.
      6080 here we come which will be about 16200 support on the DOW.

      2. Took +75 on this morning’s so called long term short. Too early probably, but I’ll live with that.
        Probably replace around 6100.

        1. That sell off at about 2.35pm when it was extremely overbought on the RSI at about 6139 – 40 was much too overdone for my liking.The momentum just vanished!!

  20. Maybe nothing ..
    3 Min Chart
    Draw a trend line from last nights 17:48 Low – the 1:50 am Low of this morning (if this counts) .
    The spike up gives you one of those nasty Kiss of death to the underside of the Trend Line.
    Guess 6100 is now near term resistance, although the DOW will probably maintain above the IG pivot (16190)

    1. How you trade this tmfp is beyond me.there are far too many surprises for my liking,however it’s all good character building stuff :0)

      2. Nervous bulls could get wiped out (i’m hoping)? What reason to buy – especially ahead of figures tomorrow? Rallies failing at the moment and fairly quickly?
        You never know these days though.

          1. Nah, get stuck in there with the blood and guts 🙂
            I love it when it’s like this, only bigger buzz is sex and riding my motorbike, but I don’t get paid for that!

            Here comes the closing short, if the DOW sticks its head over 200, batter it.

          4. Im stuck in with all the blood and guts tmfp,but sitting back and Watching now,I think the Dow will go up after the Ftse closes but who knows?

    1. LOL yeah Senu, I’ve got a few points to play with and my crazy head on. It’s got to be fun too hasn’t it?
      🙂

      1. It is a lot of struggle nowadays. I am trading only with min lot. Avoiding all this MHH. (morning and evening)

          1. Mad Half Hour on the FTSE 16.00-16.30 as they used to say on the telly
            “Anything can happen in the Next Half Hour” Stingray wasn’t it?

      2. Perfect example of getting carried away there 😉 but wth…

        Average short at 72 still holding for a while, 150 looks too tempting a target on the DOW not to be retested and hopefully fail big time.
        Here we go….?

        1. I don’t watch S&P, but I’d expect 16000-16100 DOW to hold, equating to 6000 ish low for FTSE.
          Further meltdown would be at 1 am when the other side of the world open to red ink everywhere else.
          Could see 59something for breakfast here, but don’t let’s get carried away.
          Mantra: buy the weakness, sell the strength.

          1. Have got RL stuff to do so putting a break even stop at 72 on my balance short, a bit tight because I’d only not want it if the DOW got back over 200, but it’ll do.

            Good luck all, see you in the 5000’s 🙂 .

      1. Hard to see the Sept low holding,but Oct 1 seems a bit early.Just had a quick look for Central Bank Announcements and the ECB is 3 weeks away

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