Spread Betting Help | Support 6576, 6506, 6487, 6368 Resistance 6594, 6673, 6710, 6764

Good morning. Well the saga rumbles on with the latest twist seeing the Greek threaten legal action to keep them in the EU! Yesterday saw the arrows play out quite well in the end, with a rise to the 6690 area in the end, before we fell right back down below 6600. Today is the due date for the Greeks to pay the IMF as their latest loan package expires. What a situation!

Greece
Greece closed its banks and imposed capital controls after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras on Friday called for a July 5 referendum on austerity measures demanded by creditors. The country’s current aid package expires Tuesday, when a deadline to pay the International Monetary Fund is also due.

“This episode showcases the structural flaws in the euro project and the limits of political will to hold it together,” said Michael Ingram, a London-based market strategist at BGC Partners. “Absent a complete capitulation from the troika, Greece will default on the IMF tomorrow and emergency liquidity assistance should be withdrawn on Wednesday. I can’t see anyone stepping in before Wednesday ahead of ELA withdrawal.”

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said voting no in the referendum “would signal that Greece wants to distance itself from the euro zone and Europe.” Leaders of France and Germany, the region’s biggest economies, offered no further concessions.

US & Asia Overnight from Bloomberg
Asian stocks rose, with the regional benchmark index climbing from a three-month low, as investors watched developments in Greece’s debt crisis.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1 percent to 145.16 as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo after closing Monday at the lowest since March 17. The gauge is on course to fall 4.1 percent this month and 0.8 percent for the quarter. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank 2.1 percent on Monday, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 2.7 percent.

“All eyes this week will be on the ECB, which has the potential to announce a front-loading of its QE program,” said Matthew Sherwood, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at Perpetual Ltd. “That should help stabilize things.”

Greece plunged into financial turmoil as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras decided to put creditors’ demands to a referendum. After the nation imposed capital controls and shut its banks, the focus Tuesday shifts to whether it will default, with $1.7 billion due to the International Monetary Fund. As 12,000 people gathered in Athens’ Syntagma Square with banners that read “our lives do not belong to the creditors,” Tsipras struck a defiant tone, saying European leaders don’t have the nerve to kick Greece out of the euro.

Markets will be looking to the European Central Bank for measures to contain the crisis, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE and a Bloomberg View columnist, said in an interview from New York.

Regional Gauges
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.2 percent on the final day of the financial year. Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.1 percent, extending its gain for the second quarter to 5.3 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent, as did New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.1 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 0.4 percent in most recent trading.

The Shanghai Composite Index sank 3.3 percent on Monday as signs of an exodus by leveraged investors overshadowed the central bank’s effort to revive confidence with an interest-rate cut. The measure has fallen 22 percent from a June 12 peak.

E-mini futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.2 percent today. [Ref]

FTSE Outlook

FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting
FTSE 100 Prediction for spread betting

Going to be another interesting day thats for sure. We start with resistance at the daily pivot at 6594, and the 20 day Bianca support at 6576, a level which I think might well hold, especially if the FTSE follows the ASX (it had a dip on open then rose for most of the morning). The 10 minute chart is actually bullish to start the day with an uptrend and support at 6586, while the 30minute chart isn’t quite as strong but has a decent channel in play with support at 6491 and resistance at 6673 – will be interesting to see if we hit either of those levels, with the bulls needing to break 6599 initially to push higher. Also on the 30min we are just tracking a rising PRT line overnight with the Asia strength. I am thinking a little dip to start things off, most likely to 6576 support then hopefully another rise. Its all volatile and depends on the evolving Greek situation.

93 Comments

  1. I added to my big short first thing, all in now at average 6620.
    My overall view for this week stays the same, a meltdown to <6300.
    I have decided that I'm too old for any more nights without sleep, so I have put a guaranteed platform stop on the lot at break even.
    Always was a lousy poker player lol.

    1. Hi tmfp,

      Good one. I have a question if you can help please, Do you use IG and how can you put a guaranteed stop (GS) on an already opened position. I know they provide an option when you open it but I have been thinking that once the stops are altered GS becomes invalid.

      1. I haven’t tried to change one yet tbh……let’s have a look.
        B*gger, you’re right, I’ll have to close and immediately reopen.
        Thanks for that 🙂

    2. LoL – Just wondering just how old you are if you remember houses for 20K a and can’t go without a nights sleep ?

      1. Let’s put it like this, when I started we drew charts with graph paper and pencils. They were mainly point and figure, candlesticks were a bit modern lol

  2. Was tempted there (6555 area) to “bank” some profits on a Short but no change in trend apparent just yet – maybe 6530 – 6491

    1. Certainly not too much to get excited about now. Managed to get some long points first thing with that rise to 6594 but not looking too rosy now

      1. Managed to jump into that DAX rise once it broke 11010. Just closed half for 11075, rest set as 11025

        1. Rest closed out automatically
          Just a spike in the market based on Greece perhaps being back at the discussions…..not bad rise to jump onto

      2. Spitting feathers – Closed Short at 6545 – placed stop – wrong instruction put in “Limit” rather than “Stop” – So banked my profits and immediatley went Short again …puh!!

  3. Tmfp, before you close and try to reopen the guaranteed stop please note that the margin requirements for a guaranteed stop are perversely very high. Almost untradeable when I have looked previously on individual shares.

    1. On indices (I don’t know about shares but I think it’s the same) it is equal to the potential loss only no slippage, so a £60 pp short at 6560 with a 6620 guaranteed stop cost 60×60=£3600 margin (about twice 60pt non guaranteed). Luckily I found out when we were <6560.
      Glad I've got all you youngsters to look after me, much appreciated RJ, x2 et al
      🙂

  4. Scrap that just did a test and it’s the same on the indicies! Good idea for Friday night

    1. I think the gold market is manipulated and broken these days as a ‘safe haven’ hedge personally, anstel.

      1. Silver is definitely manipulated a lot,I think if the gold price is relatively low for whatever reason it gives false confidence to the market and helps to justify an increase in valuations.

        1. maybe “they” are just cleaning out all retail traders shouting buy buy buy and then buying low

          1. Think you may be right Milka,I think the Chinese have the lions share of the gold along with 70% of US debt.dont think the Chinese will take to kindly to “someone else” setting the gold price when “someone else ” doesn’t have as much as they do,I’m saying no more.

    1. Looking at these, thanks Hugh and Jim, my reaction is that the smoothing of candles isn’t necessarily what I would want.
      For example, look at the 5 min FTSE for the last hour or so. Those long tails on the way down tell me it’s probably a well traded move, 2 steps down, one up which makes me expect it to continue rather than if it was just one colour solid candles like a lightly traded move, likely to retrace quickly.
      Do you see what I mean?

      1. meaning the lows last night after close and this morning were actually 6560 and 6540. That’s a support not a resistance. Actually not had any sun, blood is not following

        1. I’m talking my book, but there’s not any support around there in a technical sense that I can see, it’s just that is as far down as it’s gone so far.
          More like selling drying up, rather than buyers rushing in.
          If you look at the monthly Bolinger bands you can see we’re out there in terms of deviation from mean.

    1. 🙂
      I have a rich (very old) uncle who lives in Athens, his attitude is that he ignores Tsipras because he doesn’t wear a tie….I asked him about the likelihood of the Generals getting a bit restless if the referendum ends in chaos.
      He remembers 1967 and his reply was obscene and not very informative unfortunately.

  5. Cor blimey had a shock there. Accidentally put a trade on with an extra zero at the end!
    Just noticed, nearly 15mins later and thankfully the DAX moved down. Managed to close for a profit but that could have been so much worse if it had hit my stop on the way up…phew
    Jeez could have given me a heart attack haha

    Lesson from now on, always double check the zeros, 10 becoming 100 is too dangerous

    Plus side, closed out for 8 pips profit, magnified hugely. Though my 10 would still be at a respectable 30pips right now, so not worth the risk.

    1. Once I didn’t notice that I bought 5 lots and sitting happily thinking I had 1 lot. I didn’t have an easy escape but escaped. Now I always check the stake size.

  6. 230 points range on Dax where’s on Dow only 100 points. However spread is good on Dax before 2.30. From 2.30 it’s actually showing 1 points spread on Dow. I may as well trade this market after 2.30 if I can. I am just more familiar with Dow, I studied it a lot. 100 points range is better for me than 300 points. I know Dow can go for 300-400 points on some flash crash days but it’s not typical.
    It’s possibly that Dax’s volatility increased lately.

      1. I usually take FTSE arrows and apply them to Dax and Dow, often matches. Just of curiosity.

  7. Just covering a short I didn’t tell you about from the 3rd failed attempt at 6600, looking for an rsi long ~50, on a long 1min exhaustion candle

  8. do you reckon the market will rally here, or this is the second part of the sell predicted on Sunday

  9. Milka it’s very difficult to say,we are approx 40 pts off the lows from Sunday night as you know,When you think only a few short weeks ago it was over 7100 you would think it’s cheap but there’s no confidence.does make you wonder if it’s going to keep falling.I have been caught in this situation before with the Cyprus situation early last year and it jumped up because they put interest rates up.who knows what surprises are in store for us,good luck

  10. I guess it’s worth sitting out for now. If Greece is saved we are at 6700 immediately but a month ago you’d have chomped someone’s hand off for that price so this would still be a long entry. All news related at the moment so feels like a pure gamble.

  11. Hi senu no I luckily I sold at break even earlier see earlier post. Was tampered before but just going to sit out. Tspiras is a bit mad as I’ve known all along but thought Merkal would get him in line!

        1. why gap up? It should drop (although mostly priced in) right, yes hass always been up and no has always been down so far.

      1. Well, technically they still have some grace period.however, it is really surprising to see that there has been absolutely on movement at all on the indices.

          1. Yes. I think it’s just a case of waiting patiently. I am currently long on all major indices, purely based on my system. Markets could go either way, I think markets will be flat until open tomorrow.

  12. Aussie market opened up long. I think the Greek government know they will lose a referendum, so they will now deal. Expect very long markets tomorrow.

  13. markets pretty flat, was fully priced in, or people are just gearing up for Sunday. Who the f**k are the IMF anyway! So what if they didn’t get back a fiver they lent to Greece.

  14. jack 2, I don’t use pivots. Based on the charts there is potential for it to go until 6610ish. Beyond that the short is pretty much invalid. I expect footsie to drop to 6500 before making any meaningful rally. Again, I could be wrong 🙂

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